# Number of picks and edge

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 Author Topic: Number of picks and edge  (Read 2989 times)
AlexNotman1
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« on: July 16, 2017, 12:12:38 AM »
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I've been trying to calculate something since a while and I've got no idea how to do this. Quite few math experts
here so I hope someone would be able to sort this out for me

Let's say I take 1.3 odds only. Let's say bookie comission is 5% and bookie is considered as sharp so odds reflect true probability. How many bets I need to place to make sure I've got an edge and it's not an coincidence that I make a profit? Any calculations or suggestions welcome.
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okakabukaka
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2017, 12:37:08 AM »
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in this scenario you will lose money not making it.
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AlexNotman1
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2017, 12:50:54 AM »
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I guess there was a mistake in question. Im gonna correct it then: we don't know if odds reflect true probability. So how many bets needs to be placed to make sure I've got edge?
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dealer wins
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2017, 09:42:03 AM »
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I've been trying to calculate something since a while and I've got no idea how to do this. Quite few math experts
here so I hope someone would be able to sort this out for me

Let's say I take 1.3 odds only. Let's say bookie comission is 5% and bookie is considered as sharp so odds reflect true probability. How many bets I need to place to make sure I've got an edge and it's not an coincidence that I make a profit? Any calculations or suggestions welcome.

In this scenario if the odds reflect the true possibility, you will lose 5% in commission on every winning bet.

EG: Say you bet £1, 130 times at true probability odds of 1.3, you will win 30p 100 times = £30, and lose £1 30 times -£30.  But you will pay 5% commission on the winning £30 of £1.50.

So for every £130 wagered the expected return would be £128.50.
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Never trust a goose!!!
Alfa1234
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2017, 10:08:20 AM »
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I think he is asking because he "thinks" he has found a way to beat an exchange or sharp bookie by placing regular bets.

Basically, if your odd is 1.3 you have a 77% probability of winning that bet if the odds reflect the true probability.  After 100 bets, you have a 95% probability of being within 2 standard deviations of the "normal" outcome meaning you'd win between 69.3% and 84.7% of your bets 95% of the time.

Calculating this correctly however, is impossible if you do not know the "true" probability...and you said that odd does not reflect it.

If you think you have an edge at an exchange or sharp bookie...you'd need well over 10k bets to rule out simple luck completely at those odds.

Forget it.
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AlexNotman1
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« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2018, 11:09:54 PM »
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If you think you have an edge at an exchange or sharp bookie...you'd need well over 10k bets to rule out simple luck completely at those odds.

Forget it.

Why would I forget it? I've seen this attitude on this forum before. Man, if I had an attitude "this is impossible, I will never achieve it" I would be working in a factory till now. There isn't such thing as "impossible" it's all about how much work you can put in and how much more than others you want something. I was such a rookie about betting years ago but now I can honestly say that I'm experienced. I spent years studying sharps, exchanges and I've got my conclusions. There are ways to benefit from exchanges long run you like it or not. Exchanges aren't perfect for some reason and it's all about patience and hard work to to find out why.

You say "forget it" cause it takes 10k bets to be 100% sure? So what? I spent years testing a lot of ways to make money, who cares about 10k bets? If there is a thing what can make you loads of money, would you just give up cause it takes 10k bets to bet 100% sure? I wouldn't. I can place 10k bets in a year so I can give up a year to find out, spent much more testing other stuff, year is nothing. speaking about that, I've placed few thousands bets on exchange and still achieve around 4-5% yield so it's not 100% it works but there is high percentage it works.

Btw. there are much smarter guys than me I can say that and I don't doubt it. So please don't say something it's impossible cause you're not smarter one arbing/valuebetting and even If I appreciate your work for the forum and knowledge about betting, there are always people who knows more than us.

And as I mentioned on other topic what's weird with having an edge in sharps anyway? Was mentioned already that they lose money from obscure markets. I can take a challenge right away, give you 500 picks from sharps and Im sure I will achieve +EV long run, done that before.
 « Last Edit: November 18, 2018, 11:42:22 PM by AlexNotman1 » Logged
jpdias101
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jpdias101

« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2018, 02:33:04 AM »
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beating the sharps is a very hard task and you will face huge variance.
Better stick to the softs and value bet them until you run out of accs/sources. I place 30K+ bets per year on softs.
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Alfa1234
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« Reply #7 on: November 19, 2018, 10:10:50 AM »
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If you think you have an edge at an exchange or sharp bookie...you'd need well over 10k bets to rule out simple luck completely at those odds.

Forget it.

Why would I forget it? I've seen this attitude on this forum before. Man, if I had an attitude "this is impossible, I will never achieve it" I would be working in a factory till now. There isn't such thing as "impossible" it's all about how much work you can put in and how much more than others you want something. I was such a rookie about betting years ago but now I can honestly say that I'm experienced. I spent years studying sharps, exchanges and I've got my conclusions. There are ways to benefit from exchanges long run you like it or not. Exchanges aren't perfect for some reason and it's all about patience and hard work to to find out why.

You say "forget it" cause it takes 10k bets to be 100% sure? So what? I spent years testing a lot of ways to make money, who cares about 10k bets? If there is a thing what can make you loads of money, would you just give up cause it takes 10k bets to bet 100% sure? I wouldn't. I can place 10k bets in a year so I can give up a year to find out, spent much more testing other stuff, year is nothing. speaking about that, I've placed few thousands bets on exchange and still achieve around 4-5% yield so it's not 100% it works but there is high percentage it works.

Btw. there are much smarter guys than me I can say that and I don't doubt it. So please don't say something it's impossible cause you're not smarter one arbing/valuebetting and even If I appreciate your work for the forum and knowledge about betting, there are always people who knows more than us.

And as I mentioned on other topic what's weird with having an edge in sharps anyway? Was mentioned already that they lose money from obscure markets. I can take a challenge right away, give you 500 picks from sharps and Im sure I will achieve +EV long run, done that before.

I wasn't trying to discourage you or anything, merely trying to imply there are easier ways to make money more quickly than trying to find a consistent edge with the sharps/exchanges.  If you have no problem putting in the time, effort and money I say absolutely go for it.  My personal opinion though is that time and money could be spent elsewhere, where sure edges and sure ways to make money exist.
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AlexNotman1
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« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2018, 10:01:05 PM »
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Btw. I saw you got some experience betting obscure markets (So you think winning long term is impossible). Would you be interested of exchanging info? Nothing's for free of course, works both ways Im pretty sure I can give you my thoughts about this topic, in exchange of some info.
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