In this scenario if the odds reflect the true possibility, you will lose 5% in commission on every winning bet.AlexNotman1 wrote: I've been trying to calculate something since a while and I've got no idea how to do this. Quite few math experts
here so I hope someone would be able to sort this out for me
Let's say I take 1.3 odds only. Let's say bookie comission is 5% and bookie is considered as sharp so odds reflect true probability. How many bets I need to place to make sure I've got an edge and it's not an coincidence that I make a profit? Any calculations or suggestions welcome.
Why would I forget it? I've seen this attitude on this forum before. Man, if I had an attitude "this is impossible, I will never achieve it" I would be working in a factory till now. There isn't such thing as "impossible" it's all about how much work you can put in and how much more than others you want something. I was such a rookie about betting years ago but now I can honestly say that I'm experienced. I spent years studying sharps, exchanges and I've got my conclusions. There are ways to benefit from exchanges long run you like it or not. Exchanges aren't perfect for some reason and it's all about patience and hard work to to find out why.Alfa1234 wrote:
If you think you have an edge at an exchange or sharp bookie...you'd need well over 10k bets to rule out simple luck completely at those odds.
Forget it.
I wasn't trying to discourage you or anything, merely trying to imply there are easier ways to make money more quickly than trying to find a consistent edge with the sharps/exchanges. If you have no problem putting in the time, effort and money I say absolutely go for it. My personal opinion though is that time and money could be spent elsewhere, where sure edges and sure ways to make money exist.AlexNotman1 wrote:Why would I forget it? I've seen this attitude on this forum before. Man, if I had an attitude "this is impossible, I will never achieve it" I would be working in a factory till now. There isn't such thing as "impossible" it's all about how much work you can put in and how much more than others you want something. I was such a rookie about betting years ago but now I can honestly say that I'm experienced. I spent years studying sharps, exchanges and I've got my conclusions. There are ways to benefit from exchanges long run you like it or not. Exchanges aren't perfect for some reason and it's all about patience and hard work to to find out why.Alfa1234 wrote:
If you think you have an edge at an exchange or sharp bookie...you'd need well over 10k bets to rule out simple luck completely at those odds.
Forget it.
You say "forget it" cause it takes 10k bets to be 100% sure? So what? I spent years testing a lot of ways to make money, who cares about 10k bets? If there is a thing what can make you loads of money, would you just give up cause it takes 10k bets to bet 100% sure? I wouldn't. I can place 10k bets in a year so I can give up a year to find out, spent much more testing other stuff, year is nothing. speaking about that, I've placed few thousands bets on exchange and still achieve around 4-5% yield so it's not 100% it works but there is high percentage it works.
Btw. there are much smarter guys than me I can say that and I don't doubt it. So please don't say something it's impossible cause you're not smarter one arbing/valuebetting and even If I appreciate your work for the forum and knowledge about betting, there are always people who knows more than us.
And as I mentioned on other topic what's weird with having an edge in sharps anyway? Was mentioned already that they lose money from obscure markets. I can take a challenge right away, give you 500 picks from sharps and Im sure I will achieve +EV long run, done that before.
Im pretty sure I can give you my thoughts about this topic, in exchange of some info.
