how to deal with void bets

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karaya
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karaya

how to deal with void bets
« on: August 07, 2017, 02:44:45 PM »
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hello all


if one bet is voided should how should i proceed to limit losses, should i bet again at the given price?
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ppintaluba
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ppintaluba

Re: how to deal with void bets
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2017, 03:03:49 PM »
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Normally yes. If not, you are gambling. That's ok too if you think your running bet has value. But if that's the case you should be able find another bet to cover the opposite result (either another arb or a small loss). If you don't find and arb or a small loss, then your bet probably has no value and it makes no sense to let it alone.
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NedlogViiibes
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Re: how to deal with void bets
« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2017, 04:37:54 PM »
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Normally yes. If not, you are gambling. That's ok too if you think your running bet has value. But if that's the case you should be able find another bet to cover the opposite result (either another arb or a small loss). If you don't find and arb or a small loss, then your bet probably has no value and it makes no sense to let it alone.

Shouldn't we only talk about the risk we are willing to take here?

If you can't find an arb or a small loss, then yes - your bet probably don't hold value. But making another bet with minus value doesn't help that.
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ppintaluba
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ppintaluba

Re: how to deal with void bets
« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2017, 03:45:07 AM »
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It's been quiet here. Let's see some examples.

There are 3 original arbs (2.44%). Arb A) with similar odds, arb B) with one favorite side and arb C) with a big favorite.
One bet is voided and we can get a cover bet with lower odds. It turns the original arb into a negative arb (-1.65%)
In which cases would you cover your bets, or let it run?




Now, the same three arbs, but we only can get a cover bet turning into a negative arb (-8.7%)


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Trevorr
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Trevorr

Re: how to deal with void bets
« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2017, 08:45:43 AM »
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There is no point making -EV bet to cover. You just lose money making it in long term. But of course if your bet is big compare to your bankroll then you need cover to survive.
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Alfa1234
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Re: how to deal with void bets
« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2017, 09:33:51 AM »
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Having some peace of mind by covering (after all, if you are arbing you are doing it to avoid gambling), also has some worth. 

On top of that, take into consideration the number of voids is very limited, so even if you have a bigger -EV by covering instead of just letting it run, the variance (due to low number of bets voided) would be huge.  We are not talking about doing 10k bets per year here like value betting.  You could just as easily end up with 100% of those bets lost as 100% of those bets won so I don't think the long term EV should be taken something that's to be taken into consideration here much.
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ppintaluba
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ppintaluba

Re: how to deal with void bets
« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2017, 12:11:19 PM »
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In my image I would cover bets a1, a2, b1, b2, c1, c2, d1, d2, e2, f2. Not sure about e1. I probably wouldn't cover f1.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2017, 02:27:43 AM by ppintaluba » Logged

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