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math problem risk free bet

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maletaja
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math problem risk free bet

Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:04 pm

Lets say we have 10$ risk free bet. Which odds should we take to maximase EV?Should bet payout infinitive  infinitve?
AceJack
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Re: math problem risk free bet

Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:36 am

as high as possible is my experience:

sample Bet 1:  SNR: Odd 8,0 @ 10 USD , and lay 9,0 in odds with 2% rake at some site Will give 76,39% retention rate 7,64 net Profit

Sample Bet2 : SNR Odd 3,0 @ 10 USD , Lay 3,4 - Retention rate 5,8 - Net 5,8

Sample0 SNR Odd 25,0 @ 10 USD , and lay 26 : retetion rate = 90,53
risilloch
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Re: math problem risk free bet

Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:39 pm

maletaja wrote: Lets say we have 10$ risk free bet. Which odds should we take to maximase EV?Should bet payout infinitive  infinitve?
You are correct the theoretical optimum odds to maximise the value of a freebet is infinity.
(but if you could find one of those you would bet it free bet or not!).

I also suspect using a free bet on a high odds bet is a red flag.
For a $10 freebet it is simply not worth it to risk burning your account
AceJack
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Re: math problem risk free bet

Sat Sep 02, 2017 3:32 pm

i've had no problem betting these high odds - you just look like a fool like the rest :)

every punter loves to bet on underdogs and or multiples to get high odds so betting the underdog with a free bet shouldn't be a problem ...
NedlogViiibes
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Re: math problem risk free bet

Sat Sep 02, 2017 4:05 pm

AceJack wrote: i've had no problem betting these high odds - you just look like a fool like the rest :)

every punter loves to bet on underdogs and or multiples to get high odds so betting the underdog with a free bet shouldn't be a problem ...
Really? I'd say most punters love to bet multiples with favorites. They bet on what they expect to happen, not taking into account the actual odds and probabilities.
Last edited by NedlogViiibes on Sat Sep 02, 2017 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
AceJack
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Re: math problem risk free bet

Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:58 pm

yea you are right ., but I guess maybe they take the underdogs when they are tilting and steaming :)
Gamblers Ruin
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Re: math problem risk free bet

Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:31 pm

AceJack wrote: as high as possible is my experience:

sample Bet 1:  SNR: Odd 8,0 @ 10 USD , and lay 9,0 in odds with 2% rake at some site Will give 76,39% retention rate 7,64 net Profit

Sample Bet2 : SNR Odd 3,0 @ 10 USD , Lay 3,4 - Retention rate 5,8 - Net 5,8

Sample0 SNR Odd 25,0 @ 10 USD , and lay 26 : retetion rate = 90,53
Did you find those odds examples or make them up? The last one has the best overround before we even start. If you give the same -1.3% negative arb as sample bet 1, you retain only 6.14

My rule of thumb, if you're betting on negative arbs just to use the freebet, stick to 5/1 - 10/1 and you can't go far wrong. But as correctly mentioned above, if you can hit a +ve arb, go as high as possible (and then bet on it with other money too).
Win->bet more->lose->bet same-> bankrupt

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