Worst day ever for value betting!

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tarzan
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Worst day ever for value betting!
« on: September 09, 2017, 08:50:32 PM »

For 3 years of value betting today I had the worst day (15 stakes in minus)
Unbelivable!
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Arbusers
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Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2017, 08:53:51 PM »

Could you provide some more stats, or maybe a table with your value betting? Your filters?
Thank you.
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tarzan
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Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2017, 08:58:31 PM »

Normaly I have ups and downs but on a long run is going good!
Today was catastrophe!
I am using exchange bookies everything above 0.3 arb and I am using Pinnacle and Sbobet everything above 1% arb with softies!
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maletaja
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Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2017, 09:54:20 AM »

I can say opposite way. I did valuebetting and my roi were 10%. Now this month i am 10 bets minus side...awful
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Arbusers
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Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2017, 10:34:18 AM »

I m noticing some ups and downs also with out being able to give a proper explanation. I m playing with filters to see what is going wrong during these periods.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2017, 11:24:48 AM »

August and September have been pretty bad for me as well, but not terrible.  It'll swing the other way soon.
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maletaja
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Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2017, 12:08:56 PM »

Lots of arbs were basketballs teams vs Spain +30 or so Spain won even higher. I have lost all basketball valuebets so far
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tarzan
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Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2017, 06:19:39 PM »

I remember last september was also shity month and this was the month I start value betting for last season!

september 2016  -13700
oktobar      2016 +11500
november  2016    -1800 ...this the moment when I was seriosly thinking to quit value betting and start arbing again ! Three months of work and I had
                                           around 4000 minus. And than............................
december 2016  +18300
january     2017  +25200
february   2017   +21800
martz       2017   +16300
april         2017     +5900
may         2017   +24500
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Arbusers
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Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2017, 06:37:46 PM »


november  2016    -1800 ...this the moment when I was seriosly thinking to quit value betting and start arbing again ! Three months of work and I had around 4000 minus. And than............................


Yeah, that's how it is. Imagine how many were disappointed and quit everything.
I m trying to figure out which periods are problematic, but each year these periods are shifting. Maybe it has to do with major events like Euros and World cups, maybe not. Late March is also problematic for a reason and maybe that is why March madness bonuses are given at this specific period. I see this drop coming to you very late at April. Still cant explain...I have homework to do.
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tarzan
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Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2017, 07:01:51 PM »

My opinion is that sometimes we are folowing gamblers with the tone of money who discovers Pinnacle Sbobet Betfair and their money drop the odds!
For example this august,september somebody plays unders on friendly hockey matches on Pinnacle.
From 15 unders he misses 13.Nobody can convice me that he is a sharp player.
Unfortently most of value betters was following him me also!
That can be one of the reason for many losing bets!
There is a story that pinnacle traders are only moving odds when the sharp players place the bets (they know exactly witch account are from sharp players)
But so many times when I placed a bet on pinnacle or sbobet I see how my money change the odds (smaller liquid markets)...and I am not sharp player!
That is why I come to conclusion that we are sometimes following gamblers!


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NedlogViiibes
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Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2017, 07:25:13 PM »

My opinion is that sometimes we are folowing gamblers with the tone of money who discovers Pinnacle Sbobet Betfair and their money drop the odds!
For example this august,september somebody plays unders on friendly hockey matches on Pinnacle.
From 15 unders he misses 13.Nobody can convice me that he is a sharp player.
Unfortently most of value betters was following him me also!
That can be one of the reason for many losing bets!
There is a story that pinnacle traders are only moving odds when the sharp players place the bets (they know exactly witch account are from sharp players)
But so many times when I placed a bet on pinnacle or sbobet I see how my money change the odds (smaller liquid markets)...and I am not sharp player!
That is why I come to conclusion that we are sometimes following gamblers!

What was the limits on the hockey friendlies? I would be cautious with such matches.. Also it sounds like it is some tipster publishing picks. Variance plays a huge part here. If a tipster with a good record and a lot of followers posts a tip on a small market, then the lines will move. You can't be sure about his edge before he reaches +1000 picks.

Manchester City played Liverpool the other day. Here is Pinnacles betshares:

Asian handicap
Man City (-0.5) 21%
Liverpool (+0.5) 79%

1x2
Man City 27%
Liverpool 48%
Draw 25%

Antal mål (3)
Over 73%
Under 27%

So basically the public was all over Liverpool in this match. Odds were around 2.00 on City but ended in 1.89 = sharps on City at the said odds.
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tarzan
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Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2017, 07:39:45 PM »

I dont know what was the limits for hockey friendly matches because I am not arbing any more!
It will be helpfull for value bettors if the owners of Betburger put the option in their platform that the paltform shows the limits in Pinnacle and Sbobet.
Something similiar what they have with exchanges.
I would certanly avoid markets that have less than 1000 euro.
I write to them about this option but as I see it they are not interested
Maybe if somebody with more influence (like administrator from arbusres for example) do that....they will listen!
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dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2017, 10:56:23 PM »

I absolutely accept that value betting is much more profitable than arbing, because you avoid exchange fees which can be 50% or more of the expected value.

But dont always assume that Pinnacle are the right line.

In my 12 years of arbing I am up massively on Pinnacle, easily over £200000.  That tells me that Betfair and "soft books" are not always the ones that are the side with value.
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tarzan
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tarzan

Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2017, 11:14:08 PM »

As I understand you good you are for 12 years of arbing 200000 in plus with pinnacle!
You are the first arber that I know or that I heard of that is plus with pinnacle!
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gamblehappier
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Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2017, 02:34:40 AM »

Tarzan there are also people here who have posted in the past that they finished the arbing year with a lot of money at Betfair and not at softs.In general,if the limits at pinnacle are high valuebetting is better.In low limits its dangerous as you said because you may follow gamblers.The good point of arbing is the volume instead of valuebeting,as you can bet big amount of your bankroll.Valuebeting may destroy your capital.If you are too sure or have the ability to found  very high valuebets then the best is to bet big volumes even with low capital.The big volume of capital depends from the player and from the overpice of the odd.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2017, 02:43:23 AM by gamblehappier » Logged

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