GET 50 PERCENT OFF WIN OR LOSE (page 4)

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Shariks93
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Shariks93

Re: GET 50 PERCENT OFF WIN OR LOSE
« Reply #45 on: October 13, 2017, 10:17:04 AM »

Actually is a good promotion for arbers/valubettors.IF you think it,you may find some good reasons why a book offer this promo.But if a book offer low odds,and not at all values,the book will gain in the long run,so no problem for them.
IF book has awful odds, then you need to find 1 good drop odd in 2 weeks and you still can get nice profit!
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: GET 50 PERCENT OFF WIN OR LOSE
« Reply #46 on: October 13, 2017, 11:46:04 AM »

Usually even crap books have 10% juice.
What are odds then 1.5 vs 1.5 50% chance:)?
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Shariks93
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Shariks93

Re: GET 50 PERCENT OFF WIN OR LOSE
« Reply #47 on: October 13, 2017, 12:27:56 PM »

Usually even crap books have 10% juice.
What are odds then 1.5 vs 1.5 50% chance:)?

No min ods
No max return
No wagering requirements!

You have to be very stupid personality to NOT get profit from this twice a month :D :D
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xajaker
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xajaker

Re: GET 50 PERCENT OFF WIN OR LOSE
« Reply #48 on: October 13, 2017, 04:14:33 PM »

I dont understand where is problem to get profit even if you are bad at mathematics! Its like 50% betting bonus every second week! if its hard to place there regular bets then place 1 huge bet every second week! Example 3-4k and cover it with betfair or asians.... if your gold bookie wins, you get at least 1k EUR, if not, then you win on asians/betfair and wait for refund ;)

But this sounds too good... i think there is any MAX refund or any wagering rq...


Yes  you are right but the bookie is not so stupid also, first part of the conditions includes that you have to bet every day and up to enough amount that they believe in you if not the account is moved to another person, they believe in volume bet.

second, their is an amount to place on bets, not like you can place 100000k euros, yes you can do that but you have to call and make some investigatons and this like that, normal betting per odd is 200 euros. you can bet less but not more, if the odd change, you can bet still.


so that part wont work
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xajaker
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xajaker

Re: GET 50 PERCENT OFF WIN OR LOSE
« Reply #49 on: October 13, 2017, 04:18:59 PM »

If you're sure they'll pay...you just need math.

Let's say that bookie has an odd of 2 and you find the opposing odd at Pinnacle of say 1.8.  This is a negative arb and you can find thousands of them.

Say you bet 500 in the gold bookie and 450 at Pinnacle.  If you win at your gold mine, you just made 50.  If you win at Pinnacle, you just won 360 there and only "lost" half your stake in the gold bookie thanks to the cashback...so you still won 90, right?

Then go from there.  Your next bet you adjust the stakes to reflect the new balance depending on who won and how much you could make should you win in the gold bookie or lose there etc etc. Work it out.



Also Alfa, i dont know if this would work greatly, for few day now, i have been lossing in the book and hoping for a good return, yesterday and today became a disaster, i am almost balanced in accounting, but then my negative arb money is disappeared.
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surbetis
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surbetis

Re: GET 50 PERCENT OFF WIN OR LOSE
« Reply #50 on: October 13, 2017, 09:46:54 PM »

Another one problem is that , usually when you are in promo like that, you can not withdraw from the "golden" bookie till the promo ends (that is 2 weeks for you?). So if you make 1st week negative arbitrage and your wins go to golden bookie,  your capital in the other bookie will be minimun and you don ' t have the chance to move money, I am writing that to focus you in the capital management. Good luck
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Papalazarou
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Papalazarou

Re: GET 50 PERCENT OFF WIN OR LOSE
« Reply #51 on: December 12, 2017, 12:03:50 AM »

I am new to this site and, although I have never posted before, I think you should be aware that this offer, from what you have said, is not in your favour. Unless you can find a regular good arb - something which seems unlikely - then your expected return over 10 bets will be negative.

Without going too thoroughly into the maths, let me explain by way of example.

Let’s assume you have to place 12 bets of £100 and that you can bet at just below the true odds and lay off at exactly true odds.

On the roll of a die you are betting on it not being a 6.

Your bookie offers you 1.15 and you can lay off at 1.20.

After 12 rolls your expected return from your bookie will be £1150 – a loss of £50, then halved to £25. Your expected return from laying off is £1200 =break even.

Expected “profit” is a loss of  £25,
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xajaker
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xajaker

Re: GET 50 PERCENT OFF WIN OR LOSE
« Reply #52 on: December 13, 2017, 12:19:34 PM »

you are right, that has been what i was trying to explain here but seems very few understood. Maybe my bad explanation.

well tried the advise from the forum, the first month was a lose,  didnt get anything and the second i lost about 2000 euros and got back 400 euros in commissions. wasnt so happy.

But finally, i found this method of gambling and not arbing, it has a good prospect so far and hope it gets a lot.
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GrayFox
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GrayFox

Re: GET 50 PERCENT OFF WIN OR LOSE
« Reply #53 on: December 13, 2017, 07:17:26 PM »

@xajaker
This offer works only if you make just 1 bet every 15 days and wait. The lucky version.
if you keep betting you are going to loose money and you are gambling. By betting on negative arbs hoping you loose,soon it will end up in tears.

Advise: At least try it with 100 euros first not some thousands.
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