Finding value in Pinnacle and Exchanges (page 2)

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NedlogViiibes
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NedlogViiibes

Re: Finding value in Pinnacle and Exchanges
« Reply #15 on: December 25, 2017, 04:24:20 PM »

@alexkok

Pinnacle pays a lot of fees when you deposit/withdraw, so you have to rollover the deposit a few times. 3x rollover requirement should be rather easy to clear. You should always have money in Pinnacle anyway.
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maletaja
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Re: Finding value in Pinnacle and Exchanges
« Reply #16 on: December 26, 2017, 10:20:42 AM »

When i add this topic between ml and asians. Its my view. but when ml is 1.7 vs 2.35
And then Handicap in basketball offers -1.5points 1.95
I think itst too  big change. Usually when there are pointt by point game losers game try to do anything at the end(lots of  fouls) and point cap can risen to 5+
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Samael
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Re: Finding value in Pinnacle and Exchanges
« Reply #17 on: December 27, 2017, 11:49:42 PM »

This is not correct. It is correlated.

An extreme example:
Team A will score 3 points every time Team B scores 2 points in the long run. If we are expecting 20 points total in this match, then variance will play a bigger factor, than if we are expecting 200 points. The spread will be much wider when we are expecting more points, and the odds on the fave will be much smaller.

Also you are taking a really small sample size from Hawks as an argument to your point.
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Yeah i pick hawks from top of my head it could be a bit better example.
I think you have point in terms of math but i do very often observe market from "its not entirely related" perspective.
You can look at tennis Federer can be set both at 1.10 against Karlovic and vs idk Gilles Simon and have +3 and +5 spreads which are correct and
non related to ML odds/chances its just individual spread set up from their ability to cover spreads,not win.I assume it is similar with basketball

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