I made my target for the year so I'm exploring some new ways to find value.
Was looking at the spread/moneyline in basketball today and I noticed some large discrepancies...so I'm trying to find a way to extract the value from it.
If you look at a Basketball game in Pinnacle and compare the spread to the ML odds, these usually have a fairly decent correlation.
Say if the spread is around 5.5, the odds of the underdog are between 2.8 and 3.2. If the spread is around 8.5 the dog is priced between 4 and 4.4.
What I noticed though is, there is sometimes a discrepancy between the Pinnacle odds and the Betfair odds here IF Pinnacle has not yet posted a ML odd.
Right now e.g. the game of Jurmala VS Vytautas has a spread of 9.5 points on Pinnacle. That means the ML odd of the dog should be between 4.8 and 5.2..meaning the favourite should be priced around 1.21 to 1.24.
However, you can get that same favourite at Betfair for a price of 1.3 right now with decent liquidity. Are we leaving value on the table here by not betting that odd? Would you say Betfair is off in this case condidering the Pinnacle volume on Basketball is much higher than on Betfair?
Discuss.
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