Value betting vs Arbing

Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Value betting vs Arbing  (Read 5551 times)
Prusina
Newbie


Karma: 0
Posts: 1


View Profile

Prusina

Value betting vs Arbing
« on: January 31, 2018, 05:46:53 PM »

Hello everyone.
I have an account here in nearly 5 years , I followed the forum on and off but never  joined disscusion as I didn't have any experience that could contribute.
A long ago I unsderstood arbing , but with a lot of talk about value betting I started to lean towards that option...

Still I am not comfortable with going with Value betting as I don't have a high enough bankroll and it would be a risk to up my bets (percentage wise from bankroll).

I got to an idea and I would like your opinions on this matter.


My idea is not to do straight arbing , and not to do value betting , but a mix of those two.

I would make a value bet at soft/local and then make a bet on a sharp bookie - a bet that would break me even. So if the "value bet" will win I have profit , if the sharp bet wins , I am at 0.  I see this as a good exploit of bigger profit in value betting (rather than arbs) , but also as a safe way in which I am not going to end up losing big money after a bad streak...

Logged
Malteser
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 3
Posts: 28

Betting jihadist


View Profile

Malteser

Re: Value betting vs Arbing
« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2018, 03:33:34 PM »

You can value bet with any size bankroll, doesn't have to be large. Like you said, you can place an arb, but only partially hedge it. Completing the other side of the arb often involves taking poor value.
Logged
maletaja
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: -26
Posts: 535


View Profile

maletaja

Re: Value betting vs Arbing
« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2018, 06:38:58 AM »

I have valuebet stakes 1-50eur There are not practically no swings. And my roi there is pretty much the same i predicted in math model
Logged
Yngwie/Sawyer
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 17
Posts: 578



View Profile

Yngwie/Sawyer

Re: Value betting vs Arbing
« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2018, 06:18:58 PM »

Well, I think best is mix of two. Risk-free Value Betting. It's like arbing but you just cover your risk. Good way to maximize your profits. Works good for me so far..
Logged
barbero
Pro
****

Karma: 25
Posts: 362


View Profile

barbero

Re: Value betting vs Arbing
« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2018, 10:31:25 PM »

Another plus for this strategy is fact that straight value betting is not for the faint of heart. You might find yourself would heavy losses if you hit a negative streak, and not everybody can take that and sleep well at night. So it's up to each one :)
Logged
fafu
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 10


View Profile

fafu

Re: Value betting vs Arbing
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2018, 05:25:46 PM »

Well, I think best is mix of two. Risk-free Value Betting. It's like arbing but you just cover your risk. Good way to maximize your profits. Works good for me so far..

Why you think that is more ok to do that? You have make in the past some simulation? Have put many bets in the past?
Thanks
Logged
middler
Has experience
**

Karma: 9
Posts: 125


View Profile

middler

Re: Value betting vs Arbing
« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2018, 06:52:01 PM »

Value betting is very tricky, and although percentage-wise it is more profitable than arbing, you might even make more money and suffer less covering your bets.

First and most important, you have to know that objectively, every time you cover the risk (doesn't matter if you hedge to 0 risk or to spread profits equally), you are taking an odd with negative EV on one side. This means that with a sample that is big enough, which might be several thousand bets, this will be a cost for you. The more you cover means the more you lose, so if you break even on sharps it is more profitable than splitting profits equally on every outcome. But still not quite as profitable as value betting, as you are taking a "bad investment" to feel psychologically comfortable.

However, the average cost of hedging your bets is roughly the juice at your "fair odd", so if you usually place 1k stakes for arbing, and your plan is to reduce the stakes drastically for value betting to something like 100 because you can't afford 5-10k swings, you will suffer more and make less money, so not quite a great idea.

Honestly, the toughest part is to go through the swings of the first 500-1000 bets approximately, and overcome the phases where your overall balance might be negative after many hard working hours. But once your balance is well on the green, losses don't hurt so much.
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 436
Posts: 4260



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: Value betting vs Arbing
« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2018, 07:09:28 AM »

Congrats for this post middler.
Value Betting is not a straight line. Arbitrage is no straight line either but with less curves. Value Betting is a pendulum always swinging between unsustainable profits and moderate profits, or even losses.
The secret to your success in Value Betting is inside yourself. If you become a critical thinker playing with patient confidence, you can minimise the dangers or take steady advantage of even the worst losing streaks that will definitely occur at some point. It requires nerves of steel to cope with a losing streak in the beginning of an effort.
By developing your discipline and courage, you can refuse to let swings govern your path in Value Betting. In the end, how your betting action behaves is much equally important to how you behave. 

Logged
neopas
Becoming a Pro
***

Karma: 12
Posts: 237


View Profile

neopas

Re: Value betting vs Arbing
« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2018, 10:56:18 AM »

To sum up you need to find a winning strategy and then be able to implement it.
Logged
Alfa1234
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 49
Posts: 956


View Profile

Alfa1234

Re: Value betting vs Arbing
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2018, 06:18:30 PM »

Been tracking all my arbs as if they would have been valuebets for about 2 months now.  Both in units and several "to win" amounts.  I find myself making more with straight up arbing so far and it's not even close.  On top of that, I'm not sure if I could have gotten on with the stakes I would have wanted for the higher "to win" amounts if it was just valuebetting.  Will keep tracking it and see how it continues to go. 

That does not take away the fact that with reasonably small bankrolls, valuebetting is indeed percentage wise very good and you don't run into the sharp limits either when straight up value betting.
Logged
Shawn2k
Has experience
**

Karma: 3
Posts: 101


View Profile

Shawn2k

Re: Value betting vs Arbing
« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2018, 07:48:54 AM »

Been tracking all my arbs as if they would have been valuebets for about 2 months now.  Both in units and several "to win" amounts.  I find myself making more with straight up arbing so far and it's not even close.  On top of that, I'm not sure if I could have gotten on with the stakes I would have wanted for the higher "to win" amounts if it was just valuebetting.  Will keep tracking it and see how it continues to go. 

That does not take away the fact that with reasonably small bankrolls, valuebetting is indeed percentage wise very good and you don't run into the sharp limits either when straight up value betting.


I think some will experience what you do here. It's depending on a lot of things. First of all the kind of bets you are doing. Maybe the way you work makes arbing equal~ valuebetting.

We obviously need a large(!) sample before we can conclude anything, but this is interesting. Keep us updated  ;D
Logged
fafu
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 10


View Profile

fafu

Re: Value betting vs Arbing
« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2018, 12:20:20 PM »

About 2-3 years ago i was make just arbing and was ok becasue was a lot of wrong odds (about 400-500 in a month and big arbs and average /arb was over 3-5% )
I was analized 2 past years and if i was bet just value i was make more big profit. And in thease 2-3 years was months that at pinnacle i was +10k  ore -10k. (great imbalance considering that i was make big arbs/value and very much bets, just live and for the most part the stake was very close, about 300-500 euro)

In the last year i has make just value. The profit was same because i was bet just 1/2 off stake. Was more good becasue there is no stress to suspend odds and can't make arb.  The limits came later because i was betting 1/2 off stake in comparasion with arbing.
In last 2 month the situation is very hard for me becasue i find more hard value betting and at value if i can't bet very big stake (becasue i can't support stress if i have a string off lose bets) is very important to have very much bets to have good profit.

At the moment i don't know what to do. Maybe i will go back to arbing and i will just cover the risk at the pinnacle and i will have a maxim profit to soft bookyes!
I can't wait to faind 5  arbs/day and wast tame with small value stakes.
Sorry for my english
« Last Edit: September 28, 2018, 12:23:35 PM by fafu » Logged
Vida
Newbie


Karma: 0
Posts: 1


View Profile

Vida

Re: Value betting vs Arbing
« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2018, 11:34:52 AM »

I think the topic is mostly about psychology.

My first 100 bets ever were value bets, because at the time I found this the most logical thing to do. I started of with a winning streak but during a tiny downswing I got frightened, found a comfortzone and started arbing.

I then placed around 10000 bets as arbs, got confident and went back to value betting, finding it such a pity to bleed large "insurance fees" to the sharps.

Today I have placed around 25000 bets in total (some of them very small bot value bets) and I wish I had just been value betting from the beginning. If I do this simulation, my profits would never have been anywhere near negative during this run, just a steady upwards curve with some swings on it - my bank roll would have been around 40% larger than it is today.

For more than year, 75% of my bank roll has been inactively kept in my bank account. It is only there to give me comfort if/when I hit a downswing like The Great Depression of the 30s or the financial crisis in 2008.

Should I have given myself some advice when I started betting, it would be something like:

Enjoy the process, forget the bankroll! Results will come!

People are different, strategies are different. There is never the only right way to do things. The only common denominator is interest in making profit from sportsbetting investments. It is imperative for each person to find a style that suits personality.
Logged
barnstorm
Has experience
**

Karma: 0
Posts: 169


View Profile

barnstorm

Re: Value betting vs Arbing
« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2018, 11:13:33 PM »

Newbie question about staking for value betting.

I understand you would want to wager more when you have found greater value. But let's say you have decided that your average bet would be 100. Does that mean "To Win" 100? Or "Risking" 100? I assume "To Win" to even up your Favorite and Dogs.

So you would bet 50 on a +200 (3.0) Dog to win 100, and bet 200 on a -200 (1.5) Favorite to win 100?

Thanks!
Logged
turbobets
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 8
Posts: 54


View Profile

turbobets

Re: Value betting vs Arbing
« Reply #14 on: November 23, 2018, 10:34:13 PM »


So you would bet 50 on a +200 (3.0) Dog to win 100, and bet 200 on a -200 (1.5) Favorite to win 100?

Thanks!

I bet to win like your example above. I tested flat risk versus flat win on my past bets. Flat risk slightly more wagered and therefore more profit but flat win had less swings.
Logged
Pages: [1]
Print