Faking Loses To Avoid Limits

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sagan
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sagan

Faking Loses To Avoid Limits
« on: February 23, 2018, 09:41:31 PM »

Hi there I have spent some time searching for these questions in the forum but was unable to find any direct answers. Any help or direction would be greatly appreciated.

1
I have never arbed before, but I think I am able to win consistently from a particular sportsbook as a result of one of the tools they offer. After my last big win I was restricted to win only certain amounts, but that has since been removed after I placed some silly bets. I do not want to get restricted again. My plan is to back bets on this sportsbook and then lay on another book/exchange/agent until my balance at sportsbook1 is at a significant loss. Ideally placing significant amounts on heavy favorites because I think books like those bets. Then my plan is to win 50% of those loses back by my usual methods. For example I would like to maintain the account on an annual basis of 20k in loses and 10k in wins, or at least at that ratio.

My question is – will this strategy help avoid restrictions? If not why not? Does anyone have experience with experimenting with this strategy?

2
In order to optimize the above mentioned strategy I need to find the most cost effective way to lay bets. My location is Canada so my current understanding of my options include: other sportsbooks, pinnacle, agents for exchanges. It seems to me that if I were to use another sportsbook/pinnacle I would lose 20% of my stake on my back bet at sportsbook1 every time the bet there lost (underlay). That seems like quite a high price to pay, although it would still be beneficial to me under the assumption that the strategy in my first question works. With the exchanges it seems I can get that number down to a 3% loss but I do not have access to them directly at the moment.

My question is – what is the optimal way to lay bets considering my location and current options? Am I missing something with Pinnacle? Everyone says their odds are great but they seem pretty close to the average book when not betting on the favorite.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2018, 09:47:02 PM by sagan » Logged
dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: Faking Loses To Avoid Limits
« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2018, 12:09:17 PM »

If you are looking to lay bets on an exchange without taking a loss, you will end up winning on the bookie side overall.

Any bet you can make where you can lay on an exchange for no loss will be value on the bookie side.
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barbero
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Re: Faking Loses To Avoid Limits
« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2018, 02:11:46 PM »

If I understood correctly, he is ok with taking a loss in those silly bets. He pays that price in order to keep his soft bookie alive.

What's so good about pinnacle? Lower juice than the average. Will you ALWAYS find better odds? Certainly not, if this were the case there would never ever exist an arb ;D

About your strategy actually working or not... it quite depends on your bookie. Some bookies tend to limit on profit, whilst others will limit you if you place one or a few EV+ bets. You will only know if you try. But to me, it sounds like a strategy worth trying, in the end, if I got it right, you are not making money from that bookie so they might let you live.

Variance might be a big problem though. When you lay those bets you might still get a winning streak in your soft bookie and get limited. In such case you would at least make some extra money, since you are underlaying.

Good luck
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sagan
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Re: Faking Loses To Avoid Limits
« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2018, 04:00:15 PM »

Many thanks for your responses it is appreciated.

Yes I don't mind losing some money with the back and lay bets, they don't have to be arbs. In fact perhaps in my case I prefer them not to be arbs in order to avoid getting put on some kind of soft book radar? I would like to lose a small % for every back and lay bet. Ideally I would like to do this with pinnacle, while backing a significant favorite on the soft book and laying the underdog on pinnacle. To my current knowledge this does not seem possible. If anyone has any ideas about this I would be very interested to hear about it (ie- specific markets or bet types) Perhaps an alert service would work for this?

Thanks Barbero, I think you are right some limit by profit, ev, types of bets etc, The strategy is worth a try I agree, the only cost is the time it takes to build up the loses, and the possible opportunity cost of just going for one big win and getting out of the game.

As for variance the plan is to only bet on significant favorites with the soft bookies (ideally favorites that I think could lose). That way if they win it won't be very much. If they lose it will be a lot. And I gather those are the types of bets that soft books like to see from recreational betters because they figure they will win in the long run.

Although like I mentioned above, the problem with this for me is that I cant seem to make the numbers work laying underdogs with pinnacle, although I am very new at this so I might be missing something. Betting exchanges are not available in Canada where I am located. Leaving me to consider agents unless anyone has a better idea.
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barbero
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Re: Faking Loses To Avoid Limits
« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2018, 01:00:08 PM »

Yes indded, there is an opportunity cost that only you can really determine :)

I don't see what trouble you are finding when laying bets in Pinnacle. Say you found a match winner with the following odds

1.30 for TEAM 1 in soft bookie
4.25 for DRAW in pinnacle
9.38 for TEAM 2 in pinnacle

What problem is there in betting in all of those and losing 10% of your stake regardless of the outcome? That is, if you totally lay the bet, if you want to underlay just make the calculations for how much you want to lose on each case ;)
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sagan
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sagan

Re: Faking Loses To Avoid Limits
« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2018, 04:58:29 PM »

Thanks Barbero for your response.

Correct me if I'm wrong but in the example you provided an underlay bet would seem to yield a 30% loss.

Ie
$100 @ 1.3 bet on team 1 in soft book = $30 for win

$21.6 @ 4.25 on draw at pinnacle = $70.2 for win

$8.4 @ 9.38 on team 2 at pinnacle = $70.3 for win

Therefore every time the back bet at the soft book wins I lose 30% of the original stake. I am trying to get this as low as possible.

For reference I think the easier way to go about this type of bet is to just bet team 2 +0.5 at pinnacle.


« Last Edit: February 27, 2018, 05:15:40 PM by sagan » Logged
barbero
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Re: Faking Loses To Avoid Limits
« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2018, 06:21:32 PM »

I think those stakes are not entirely correct, buy anyway, yes, your point is right: it's too expensive. You will need to find matches where juice is lower (10% is a lot, you can surely find better).

Good luck!
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