What is going on lately with value betting?

Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: What is going on lately with value betting?  (Read 4986 times)
tarzan
Has experience
**

Karma: 1
Posts: 177


View Profile

tarzan

What is going on lately with value betting?
« on: March 08, 2018, 08:23:02 PM »

I have such a bad results from begining of 2018 that I didnt experienced for 3 years of value betting.
Does anyone else have the same experience or its only me?
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 435
Posts: 4254



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: What is going on lately with value betting?
« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2018, 08:36:20 PM »

Yes, you are right. I m running/observing several value betting projects at the same time. I noticed that November 17 was a very brutal month for value betting and indeed January and February 18 were also harsh and difficult months. March doesn't look that bad but again it is not what it should be. In times of trouble you can see how resilient each project is.
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 435
Posts: 4254



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: What is going on lately with value betting?
« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2018, 08:42:36 PM »

Especially for you Tarzan. You are running your project successfully for some time now. You shouldn't be disappointed by a losing streak even if it lasts for 3 months in a row. Maybe you should work on your staking plan so you minimise losses and you maximise profits.
Logged
Alfa1234
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 48
Posts: 956


View Profile

Alfa1234

Re: What is going on lately with value betting?
« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2018, 11:24:43 PM »

Same results here this year, March seems better so far.  It's simply a bad run, not much to do about it besides keep going.
Logged
VidaBlue
Becoming a Pro
***

Karma: 47
Posts: 236


View Profile

VidaBlue

Re: What is going on lately with value betting?
« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2018, 07:44:57 AM »

Luckily I have been on vacation in December and January, but since I started up again 3 weeks ago, my bank roll has suffered a 13% loss. This week has been positive so far though. Losses have been on high liquidity markets, I have not had losses on the smaller markets. Variance is tough sometimes.
Logged
naza
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 1
Posts: 46


View Profile

naza

Re: What is going on lately with value betting?
« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2018, 08:38:11 AM »

I have been experiencing a horrible month in January, and ended the month with a marginal loss only. February was the recovery for me and now in March it's looking a little bit better.

Not much to add, just waiting for the good strike to hit

@Arbusers: what are your value betting projects ?
Logged
Yngwie/Sawyer
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 17
Posts: 577



View Profile

Yngwie/Sawyer

Re: What is going on lately with value betting?
« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2018, 12:55:35 PM »

I'm making something similiar to value betting. I'm just covering the risk. So if bet lose, my loss is zero. If bet wins, I win. Value bets win very often specially in inplay arbs. I'm doing this system only in inplay arbs by the way. I can say clearly that value betting is more effective in inplay (live) arbitrage.
Logged
fnatic91
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 5
Posts: 533


View Profile

fnatic91

Re: What is going on lately with value betting?
« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2018, 01:12:00 PM »

are all of you talking about premtach i think ?

cause inplay have been positive in january ,february for sure :)
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 435
Posts: 4254



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: What is going on lately with value betting?
« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2018, 02:39:59 PM »

@Arbusers: what are your value betting projects ?

I m exploring a couple of bots and I use O4S.
I have 2 more projects waiting in line to be tested.
Logged
x-casino
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 2
Posts: 80


View Profile

x-casino

Re: What is going on lately with value betting?
« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2018, 05:27:06 PM »

I understand that the staking system is one of the most important factors in value betting.
I also understand that everyone is using a different strategy in this depending on the value system.
Here comes the question of the million:
What is your staking plan and why do you think it is the correct one?
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 435
Posts: 4254



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: What is going on lately with value betting?
« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2018, 07:29:23 PM »

Each and everyone is following his own staking plan according to his experience. When I speak about tipping, I always suggest the proportional and percentage staking. But value betting is a different thing as more factors are coming in. I reject the flat staking. If we are looking for a staking system that would cut losses and maximise profits, maybe we should look at a D'alembert staking plan or any of it's versions. This time, the D'alembert plan would be implemented on a day to day, or a week to week basis and not on a bet to bet basis. Like this, we don't require infinite funds and we eliminate the danger of going bankrupt.
This is a defensive system that is not allowing profits to skyrocket, but at the same time it is not allowing losses to kill our mood.
Logged
VidaBlue
Becoming a Pro
***

Karma: 47
Posts: 236


View Profile

VidaBlue

Re: What is going on lately with value betting?
« Reply #11 on: March 12, 2018, 04:25:47 PM »

Quote
@Arbusers: what are your value betting projects ?
All projects are based on comparing current price with market value.

Projects in operation
- Shop betting aimed at very high edges, especially on early and low liquidity markets
- Bot betting on my limited soft book accounts (not exactly legit, but I'm limited anyways)

Projects in research
- Profiting from predicted odds dynamics between sharp books and asians
- Value-mining on unpublished odds at softs

Quote
What is your staking plan and why do you think it is the correct one?
I had previously used a simple proportional staking strategy for simplicity. Including the probability, as in Kelly, would have given me better results, when I model this on my betting history. 100% Kelly would have been best in theory, but it would have given me headaches during losing streaks and too large stakes, so I have used a 20-30% Kelly strategy since then.
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 435
Posts: 4254



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: What is going on lately with value betting?
« Reply #12 on: March 12, 2018, 07:45:58 PM »

VidaBlue you are at the edge of the tidal wave.
Logged
VidaBlue
Becoming a Pro
***

Karma: 47
Posts: 236


View Profile

VidaBlue

Re: What is going on lately with value betting?
« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2018, 07:34:00 AM »

VidaBlue you are at the edge of the tidal wave.

Wondering if that is a good thing  :D - I prefer to believe that a powerful tidal wave will cause beautiful transformation, instead of total disaster.
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 435
Posts: 4254



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: What is going on lately with value betting?
« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2018, 07:53:05 AM »

It is a great thing VidaBlue, don't worry.

Consider you self lucky for having options in the streets. In some countries the margin in the streets is 40%+ trebles+taxes.
Consider your self skilled for taking advantage of your limited accounts. Not everyone can do that.
Consider your self as up to date for your value betting activities, as this is where the market trends right now
Consider your self as visionary for reading the markets. This is one of the next steps of the market and I m preparing a post for this.
Thank you for sharing.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2
Print