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The Arbusers Value Betting Index

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arbusers
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The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« on: March 26, 2018, 05:34:48 PM »

During these last years we noticed value betting as a new accelerating trend. As more players are focusing on it, we decided to build a tool that would help everyone understand the potential and the risks of value betting.

To create an inclusive and coherent picture of value betting we are taking into account all credible and reliable value betting projects that we have at our disposal together with all reports that we receive from a number of experienced value bettors with proven professional records. All factors are participating with a different and some times variable weight in the compilation of the index. Variation depends on the season, the availability of each project in the market and the day to day business as we are experiencing it through our own value betting action and the reports that we receive from our members. The Arbusers value betting index (AVBI) is the resultant of all these factors.

This index is measuring the performance of value betting on a month by month basis predominantly, while it is segmenting performances every 5 days. At a later stage and if the community welcomes this effort, we will try to segment performances on a day by day basis. An experienced player will also find it useful to determine successful staking strategies by identifying trends and by spotting periods when losing or winning streaks could occur.
The index measures the performance of value betting since January the 1st 2018. The starting price of the index by that date was 100.

Experienced members who would like to contribute in the compilation of the index are kindly requested to contact me. I encourage all members to participate in the discussion as we will all become wiser.

Thank you.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2018, 05:36:40 PM by Arbusers » Logged
arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2018, 03:25:53 PM »

Here is the chart of the Arbusers Value Betting Index for January 2018.

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For this compilation, we received data from:
a. 1 value betting bot operating with 4 high-street bookmakers. This bot participates with a 80% gravity in our index, because we have direct access to its performance, it is used by 20+ people and it exploits very popular bookmakers. This bot operates for 2 and a half  years now and we can measure it's performance accurately.
b. 3 value bettors operating manually on line. These players participates with a total 19% gravity in our index, because of their experience and the big variety of bookmakers that they use.
c. 1 value bettor operating manually off line. This player participates with a 1% gravity in our index, because his volumes are insignificant and because the bookmakers that he is using are not available to the wider audience.

We noticed that more or less they all (bot, players) follow the same trends. Bet365 took the larger part of the volume pie.
We received 2 weak signals to reduce the stake on January the 10th and January the 31st when the actual performance and the 10 days moving average diverged positively. It seems that a weak signal is not a strong call to reduce stakes, but the 2nd weak signal gathered momentum and it was enough evidence to make players reduce their stakes. As we will see in February's chart, these 2 weak signals were enough to confirm lower stakes. Unfortunately, all factors (bot, players) didn't pay attention and kept the same stake. You will see the results in February's chart.

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ppintaluba
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2018, 12:50:44 PM »

Will you change Arbusers' tagline as in the graph?
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2018, 01:40:19 PM »

Will you change Arbusers' tagline as in the graph?

This is under consideration but most probably yes.
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2018, 05:16:27 PM »

Here is the chart of the Arbusers Value Betting Index for February 2018.

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For this compilation, we received data from:
a. 1 value betting bot operating with 4 high-street bookmakers. This bot participates with a 70% gravity in our index, because we have direct access to its performance, it is used by 20+ people and it exploits very popular bookmakers. This bot operates for 2 and a half  years now and we can measure it's performance accurately. You might noticed that we reduced the gravity from 80 to 70%. This is because a major bookmaker reacted violently and banned all bot action. Therefore, this bot after February the 20th continued to operate with 3 out of 4 bookmakers. However, these 3 bookmakers are not comparable in terms of importance and volumes with the bookmaker that banned action (bet365).
b. Odds4Stats value betting system started operating manually on our behalf after February the 25th. We are giving Odds4Stats 10% gravity because of the late launch at the end of the month and the insignificant volumes. We are about to give them a bigger gravity in March because volumes are going up and because they will operate during all month. Also, we would like to notice that Odds4Stats are operating with both sharp (Pinnacle, Betfair etc) and soft (high-street) bookmakers.
b. 3 value bettors operating manually on line. These players participates with a total 18% gravity in our index, because of their experience and the big variety of bookmakers that they use.
c. 2 value bettor operating manually off line. These players participate with a 1% gravity each in our index, because their volumes are insignificant and because the bookmakers they use are not available to the wider audience (continental Europe).

Once again, Bet365 took the larger part of the volume pie but this is going to change in March.
As we mentioned in January's report, we received 2 weak signals to reduce the stake. These signals, combined, they were proven right, because an ugly losing streak started from the very beginning of February. It was so ugly that all profits of January were extinguished.
We noticed a weak signal to increase the stake after February the 5th because the actual performance and the 10 days moving average diverged negatively. However, as we previously said, 1 weak signal is not enough. On February the 10th we received a 2nd signal to increase the stake and we consider 2 signals in a row as strong enough. It was no surprise that we had an excellent performance after February the 10th that continued until the end of the month.
We noticed that all factors had the same performance more or less, with the exception of our newest  value bettor operating manually who had a very good month. It seems that his action is producing milder curves because of the huge value margin in terms of % that he can find in the streets.

In the coming days, I will explain why we use the 10 days moving average and not any other.

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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #5 on: March 29, 2018, 05:22:37 PM »

In the coming days, I will explain why we use the 10 days moving average and not any other.

We wanted to use a sensitive moving average so we get the signals early with the most possible accuracy. In the paper tests we did we found that anything below 7 days is very premature and might give multiple fault alerts that would create nothing more than stress and complexity, while anything above 12 would produce very late signals. It seems that the most accurate moving average is the 7.5. We picked up 10 for simplicity reasons while we continue monitoring 7.5 too.
The moving average idea is coming from technical analysis in the stock markets. However, we recognise that the nature of value betting is not the same like stock markets. In addition the ABVI is trying to find the points were a trend is changing. Value betting has more ups than downs by default compared to the stock markets.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2018, 05:24:53 PM by Arbusers » Logged
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2018, 03:49:34 PM »

Here is the chart of the Arbusers Value Betting Index for March 2018.

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

For this compilation, we received data from:
a. 1 value betting bot operating with 3 high-street bookmakers. This bot participates with a 40% gravity in our index, because we have direct access to its performance, it is used by 5+ people and it exploits very popular bookmakers. This bot operates for 2 and a half  years now and we can measure it's performance accurately. You might noticed that we again reduced the gravity from 70 to 40%. This is because a major bookmaker banned all bot action and as a result the volumes generated by this bot had a free fall during March. In addition, the number of players using this bot are also severely reduced.
b. Odds4Stats value betting system operating manually on our behalf now contributes with 40% gravity because it participated during all month and generated bigger volumes compared to last month. As time is passing we gain more confidence to this service. There is a question if this service is about market reading or value betting but borders between these 2 activities are not clear.
b. 3 value bettors operating manually on line. These players participates with a total 16% gravity in our index, because of their experience and the big variety of bookmakers that they use.
c. 2 value bettor operating manually off line. These players participate with a 2% gravity each in our index, because their volumes are insignificant and because the bookmakers they use are not available to the wider audience (continental Europe).

We can now notice that Bet365 is no longer taking the larger part of the volume pie. To our surprise it is Pinnacle generating most volumes due to O4S action followed closely by a number of soft bookmakers.
As we mentioned in February’s report, we noticed 2 signals since February the 10th to increase the stake. These signals are kept us in a good channel and we harvested excellent profits during March. However, we noticed a swing on March the 5th when the 10 days moving average went above the actual performance. We must stay loyal to our theory and operating procedures and we consider this swing as the first signal to reduce our stake. We have absolutely no reason to understand this signal as an anomaly. The rest of the month was fabulous and we enjoyed our winnings on a day to day basis. At the end of the month we noticed a positive diverge between our actual performance and the 10 days moving average. This diverge was 16 points during the last day of the month. We can’t allow ourselves to be carried away by profits and we consider this diverge as the 2nd signal to reduce stake.
As for the rest of the contributing players, we noticed that all of them had a positive performance, confirming our bot and manually performance.1 of our off line contributing players had an accelerating positive performance. We believe this is due to the immense chances he found in the shops. I am quoting his statement: ‘’I had days where I placed 10 bets and 9 of them won’’.

In the our next post we will present our view on how we expect this season to end. Notice that this season ends with a World Cup and this event is indeed the elephant in the room.

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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #7 on: April 02, 2018, 11:22:50 PM »

The charts closely resemble my results. Can you talk more about signals. I was thinking of increasing my stake this month, should I hold off?
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #8 on: April 02, 2018, 11:59:48 PM »

Very quickly, I would use lower stakes now.
I will elaborate soon.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2018, 10:59:58 AM »

In the our next post we will present our view on how we expect this season to end. Notice that this season ends with a World Cup and this event is indeed the elephant in the room.

As we already noticed we are riding a wave of a winning streak that started on February the 10th. Already this wave is almost 2 months long so we can reasonably expect it to lose momentum any time soon. According to what we can see from preliminary reports, this is already happening.

Based on observation of almost 15 years we can say that every year we can spot 2 periods of losing streaks. Some years we can spot even 3 periods. It is not standard but these periods are occurring during Autumn and Spring. Last November (2017) was really awful. We didn't see this period during March so that makes me believe that it will happen very soon.
In addition, this year (2018) we are having the World Cup of Russia and that means that all championships of the planet will end sooner so the national teams will have the time to prepare.
Usually, at the end of each championships at least for 2-3 rounds, we are having a short losing streak for reasons that I will not explain here.
All these make me believe that we have 2 scenarios in front of us:
1st: A long losing streak that started now, ending at the middle of May.
2nd: A very short 2 weeks losing streak now, a brake of sunshine and then a losing streak at the middle of May.
We believe the 1st scenario is most possible than the 2nd.
Therefore, having 2 signals to reduce our stakes, we believe that stakes should be reduced immediately. Notice that our 2nd signal was really strong.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #10 on: April 05, 2018, 12:58:43 AM »

Thanks for the update it helps being able to compare my results with other value bettors.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #11 on: April 05, 2018, 09:05:38 PM »

Thanks for the update it helps being able to compare my results with other value bettors.

If you are also value betting, you could contribute to the compilation of chart at your convenience, by providing some very general information and data to me. Think about it.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2018, 09:14:10 PM »

As stated several times before, we believe that staking should be a derivative of the D'Alembert principle. We are very conservative and for peace of mind we prefer losing some more profits than being exposed to greater dangers. The D'Alembert principle is a must for those who are adopting a position like this. We know many will disagree with this position and they might be right because value betting is producing profits by default. As previously said we value peace of mind. Those who are not sure about their mathematics should also be more conservative and reduce risks.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #13 on: April 06, 2018, 07:22:05 AM »

Thank you for this post, it's really interesting.
Are you sure you have enough data of value bettors to compilate a true index ? Of course, more will contribute, more the index will reflect a true trend.

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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #14 on: April 06, 2018, 09:45:28 AM »

Thank you for this post, it's really interesting.
Are you sure you have enough data of value bettors to compilate a true index ? Of course, more will contribute, more the index will reflect a true trend.

First you have to define what a true index is. This true index is a different think for every player. One has only Pinnacle action. His true index should be a compilation of Pinnacle action only. Someone else would have bet365 and WilliamHill action. His true index should be a combination of these 2.
We tried from the very start to make an inclusive index in order to present a very general picture. Of course, this index could be segmented to smaller sub-indexes if there is a demand for that. For example, we could have a subindex of only sharp action (Pin, Sbo, Betfair) and another one with only soft action (Bet365, WillHill, etc)
To sum up, the ABVI is very much close to our true index enriched with elements from people that send us data.

On a side note, the preliminary results that we have at our disposal show April as a slow month. We will try to make a draft graph within the next couple of days.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2018, 01:28:44 PM by Arbusers » Logged
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