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The Arbusers Value Betting Index (page 2)

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neopas
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neopas

Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #15 on: April 14, 2018, 07:57:21 AM »

First, thank you for this tool. But I have an objection.
If these statistics are refreshed once per month then this tool is there for educational reasons. As a player I would like to know the exact point when I should change my staking. Informed at the end of the month doesn't say much to me.
Once again, thank you for this tool and the good knowledge.
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #16 on: April 14, 2018, 09:14:47 AM »

You are very much correct with this neopas, but reading the comments of every month, you can understand how the index moves or will move. As previously stated we will try to present preliminary results within shorter time periods.
Please understand this requires a lot of time from us, and also keep in mind that the latest version of each month will be the one including most and accurate data.
Thank you for your remarks.
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #17 on: April 16, 2018, 09:51:44 AM »

Here is a preliminary report for April 18.

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

For this compilation, we received data from:
a. 1 value betting bot operating with 3 high-street bookmakers. This bot participates with a 30% gravity in our index. We reduced it's gravity because of some days of inactivity for various reasons, mainly tweaking.
b. Odds4Stats value betting system operating manually on our behalf now contributes with 55% gravity because it participated during all month and generated bigger volumes compared to last month.
b. 2 value bettors operating manually on line. These players participates with a total 13% gravity in our index.
c. 1 value bettor operating manually off line. This player participates with a 2% gravity.

We noticed a huge diverge between on and off line value betting. Off line went excellently during these days, while O4S is slightly positive and the bot is negative. It is no surprise that O4S and bot actions correlate, with O4S doing better.
Please notice these are preliminary stats closing very much to reality. You could base your action on them, but more accurate data will come at the end of the month.

*  ( - downloaded times.)
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neopas
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #18 on: April 16, 2018, 02:22:50 PM »

So what do we do from here?
Do you recognise and entry point?
Thanks.
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #19 on: April 16, 2018, 06:45:12 PM »

So what do we do from here?
Do you recognise and entry point?
Thanks.

Currently, we do not have the 2 signals that we want in order to raise our stake. Looks like a stagnation point, therefore, we keep our stake stable. Notice that we reduced our stake 15 days ago.
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AlissonJC
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #20 on: April 21, 2018, 03:55:45 AM »

I am following this post for weeks and I think this is awesome. Incredibly awesome.

What bot do you guys use? Will you share the link with us later? And which bookie are you guys using?

Keep going with this job, fellas. It's amazing.
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #21 on: April 21, 2018, 06:08:50 PM »

Bots are not available on line so don't expect a link any time soon.
As for the bookmakers used, here is a general list:
Betfair, SBObet,  Pinnacle, Matchbook, Bet365, BetVictor, Bwin, William Hill Marathonbet, Unibet. There might be a couple more.
Those who are value betting offline are not willing to reveal names/countries so I can give you any answer for that too.
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turbobets
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #22 on: April 28, 2018, 08:53:34 PM »

The first ten days of April were good but I have given most of it back. Value betting mostly US sports and whatever tennis and soccer I can find when I'm not at work or sleeping. Average edge is 3.0% over pinny no juice line at the time wager is placed usually 15 minutes before closing.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2018, 08:56:51 PM by turbobets » Logged
arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #23 on: May 01, 2018, 07:08:18 PM »

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

For this compilation, we received data from:
a. 1 value betting bot operating with 3 high-street bookmakers. This bot participates with a 30% gravity in our index. We reduced it's gravity because of some days of inactivity for various reasons and we are about to reduce its gravity further because the volumes that we see are going down due to the reaction from bookmakers towards bot action.
b. Odds4Stats value betting system operating manually on our behalf now contributes with 55% gravity because it participated during all month and generated bigger volumes compared to last month. We expect a bigger gravity from O4S in the coming months.
b. 3 value bettors operating manually on line. These players participates with a total 11% gravity in our index, because of their experience and the big variety of bookmakers that they use.
c. 2 value bettor operating manually off line. These players participate with a 2% gravity each in our index, because their volumes are insignificant and because the bookmakers they use are not available to the wider audience (continental Europe).

During April we noticed stagnation until the 20th and then we noticed all systems going under giving back much of the profits. In the end April was slightly negative. We do not have any positive or negative signal leaving us in the dark for our action from now on. We can only guess now but we will try to chart a path. Because of the lack of clear signals we should be based on the fundamentals of value betting. The fundamentals clearly indicate that value betting is pro during profits in the long run and this period of stagnation can't last much longer. After April the 20th we noticed a decline in the performance and this is a phenomenon that we see every year when we are closing at the end of the season. This year all championships are finishing much earlier due to the Word Cup. Therefore we expect this negative performance to continue for the next 10-15 days and then we should be enjoying a fruitful period with international friendlies and the 1st round of the World Cup where events are more predictable than ending seasons. We are watching closely and we will try to post preliminary reports so we get closer to the turning point(s).
As a side note, BetVictor denied our value betting action and 0ed our limits after some months of action. The amount of bets and the height of profits were outstanding with BetVictor. We will miss this action. That was the first bookmaker to react showing that limits would come in Value betting but on the other hand it is evident that value betting with BetVictor (and any other bookmaker) leaves far more profits compared to arbing.

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« Last Edit: May 01, 2018, 07:27:46 PM by Arbusers » Logged
arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #24 on: May 16, 2018, 05:02:02 PM »

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

For this compilation, we received data from:
a. 1 value betting bot operating with 3 high-street bookmakers. This bot participates with a 10% gravity in our index. We reduced it's gravity because of low volumes.
b. Odds4Stats value betting system operating manually on our behalf now contributes with 60% gravity because it participated during all month and generated bigger volumes compared to last month.
b. 5 value bettors operating manually on line. These players participates with a total 20% gravity in our index, because of their experience and the big variety of bookmakers that they use.
c. 3 value bettor operating manually off line. These players participate with a total 10% gravity in our index, because their volumes are insignificant and because the bookmakers they use are not available to the wider audience (continental Europe and Middle East).

Before anything else we feel the need to thank the members that send us their stats punctually. We are impressed by the performance and the opportunities of the offline value betting players. These people are really blessed to have the chance for some easy money. After 4 and a half months of value betting observation we can now say that offline value betting is a faster and more stable source of profit compared to on line.

Most of the championships are already finished and only minor categories and markets are continuing their path towards the end of the season. In our last report we made the hypothesis that we should be very careful in the beginning of the month and then give a push and place bigger stakes. That was partially correct. Offline players had tough times for the 1st week of the month and then continued with a great 2nd week. Online value betting was steadily positive during both weeks. We now see no reasons why we should keep the stakes low as all championships are finished and the events that we have in front of us are good for value betting. We recall value betting action from the last World Cup and that includes the international friendlies. Therefore we believe we should raise the stakes now at least until the end of group stages of World Cup.
All in all, we are impressed by the performance of value betting and our hypothesis is correct so far.

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« Last Edit: May 16, 2018, 05:15:26 PM by Arbusers » Logged
turbobets
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #25 on: May 19, 2018, 09:26:49 PM »

Thanks for the update!
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #26 on: May 30, 2018, 07:36:11 AM »

I am processing a large number of volumes coming from the members who participate in the Index. It is now evident for me that value betting in street shops is a much better option compared with value betting on line.
Both ways are following trends, no question about it, but profits from street action are far superior.
Also, I m noticing that street value betting trends among various countries are correlating. For example, when a player in country A reports a slow week, players from countries B and C are also reporting slow weeks. When profits are coming easier, they all report it. Here, notice that all street value players are using different shops/bookmakers.
From these observations derive 2 duties.
1st, I should create 2 different Indexes, one for online value betting and a 2nd for offline.
2nd, we should find a definition for street value betting. Sharbing is the short name for “Shop Arbing”, but what is the equivalent of Shop value betting really? Any ideas appreciated.
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Alfa1234
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #27 on: May 30, 2018, 09:37:01 AM »

Thank you for continuing with this.

Isn't street arbing simply placing bets in a shop, where the odds are often different than the online equivalent (and usually much slower to adjust)?  I don't know what other definition it could be.
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #28 on: May 30, 2018, 09:53:55 AM »

Sharbing is pure arbitrage betting where you place a bet at a real shop bookmaker and lay it or cover it online to lock in a profit.
Value betting has no other leg coverage. We are looking for a word to describe value betting in shops. My previous post wasn't clear and confused you about the definition.
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Alfa1234
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #29 on: May 30, 2018, 10:52:13 AM »

Sharbing is pure arbitrage betting where you place a bet at a real shop bookmaker and lay it or cover it online to lock in a profit.
Value betting has no other leg coverage. We are looking for a word to describe value betting in shops. My previous post wasn't clear and confused you about the definition.

It was crystal clear, I misunderstood that you were looking for a definition for the value betting part of street shop betting and not street shop arbing.

Shop Value Betting. Shaluing?   ;D
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