The Arbusers Value Betting Index (page 4)

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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #45 on: August 25, 2018, 09:06:58 AM »

All bets placed by O4S are in 1X2 markets.
The vast majority of bets are also in football. Notice that our members sending reports for the projects, do not mention what markets they use. Theoretically it could be anything.
One has to have a spherical view of smart gambling, so you better not reject any way of action against another.
As for the rest of the questions about O4S, I believe they will not share their strategies, but you can contact them directly and discuss with them.
Thank you.
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15cnbrk12345
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #46 on: August 25, 2018, 11:54:42 PM »

First. I dont know if it is the right place to ask. If it is not i'm sorry.

Secondly, amazing job. Thanks to all who involves.

I opened an account on O4S. if i'm right we can just check past season and also past matches of recent seasons' valuebet strategies but it doesn't show us future values.

I made some strategies on my own but i don't know how will i be able to see the bets that fit with my strategies. I mean coming matches not past.

Sorry for my english:).
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #47 on: August 26, 2018, 08:24:45 AM »

I would like to keep this thread for ABVI. There is an O4S thread that you can ask all relevant questions:
https://arbusers.com/index.php/board,81.0.html

When I started exploring the O4S project, it was very difficult to pick up the right strategies. I dedicated a lot of time and effort in order to find mine. However, it is obvious that O4S themselves dedicated years and years in this project and their strategies are working much better than mine. The results that you see in this project derives from O4S bets, placed by O4S and not me. Needless to say that as you see there are more factors in the ABVI, some of them working even better than O4S.
Very quickly, if you pick up your strategies, you have to come with a plan on how, when and where to place these bets. Timing plays a role and of course odds play the biggest role.
You have to contact O4S and see what you can further get from them. I cant give you anything more than than that I m afraid, with the exception of the following remark.
By definition, I assume that you are a value bettor willing to devote a considerable amount of effort. If the steps needed to come up with a working and profitable strategy sound like too much work to you, then you are not temperamentally well suited for picking them. You can't reliably obtain the results you desire, unless you put in the kind of effort I describe. 
As Milton Friedman correctly puts it, ''there is no such thing as s free lunch''.
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #48 on: September 02, 2018, 09:10:45 AM »

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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #49 on: September 02, 2018, 09:14:21 AM »

This is the final performance for August
For this compilation, we received data from:
a. 1 value betting bot operating with 4 high-street bookmakers. This bot participates with a 20% gravity in our index. It's gravity is now bigger because volumes are bigger also.
b. Odds4Stats value betting system operating manually on our behalf now contributes with 60% gravity because it participated during all month and generated bigger volumes compared to last month.
b. 2 value bettors operating manually on line. These players participates with a total 20% gravity in our index, because of their experience and the big variety of bookmakers that they use.
Unfortunately we didn't receive reports from the off line Value bettors.

Commenting in the next post.

Thank you.
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #50 on: September 02, 2018, 09:23:50 AM »

Because of the 5 days fragmentation of the chart, it is not possible to give you the correct picture of what I will describe.
We had a great winning streak that started on 4th of August and went on and on until August the 18th. We observed this winning streak with our mouths open as it was difficult to believe in the performance in front of our eyes. During the last 4-5 days of the winning streak we discussed the possibility to reduce the stake so we would avoid a harsh downturn. We decided to reduce the stake in the very day that the downturn appeared. Unfortunately, many of our bets were early 5-6-7 days in advance and were placed in the highest amount. The downturn and the losing streak found us with all these bets being open. Now we were observing the cliff that lasted some days and took away the profits of almost 10 days.

This situation made us think.

There were 2 opinions in the team.
1st ''Never jump off and on, is huge mistake''. It was proved to be correct.
2nd ''Catch me if you can''. It was also proved to be correct.
But even though we were all correct, we lost much money in the losing streak, because of the early bets.

Because of this I started thinking about the psychology of the Value Bettor and how it can be contained from causing damages.

The typical value bettor would be better off, if the outcomes of his bets had no instantaneous value at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by fluctuation in profitability.
The typical value bettor should remain steadfast until the end, provided that his action is proved to be correct in the long run. Instead of fearing a losing streak, he should embrace it, because losing streaks will sooner or later be followed by winning streaks. It’s up to him to take advantage of both streaks and make them work for and not against him.
Paradoxically, you will be much more in control, when you realise how much you are not in control. By putting all of your betting action on permanent autopilot, you can fight the rush for good results, focus on your long-term goals, and stay bullet proof from mood swings.
These mood swings will separate the value bettors from the rest. In the end, how your bets and results behave are less important than how you behave. 

« Last Edit: October 08, 2018, 06:50:00 PM by Arbusers » Logged
Shawn2k
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #51 on: September 03, 2018, 12:56:01 PM »

Hi Arbusers,

First of all: Everything you say makes sense. I would also think about some of these spots you refer to.

Anyway: As a valuebetter - As long as our bankroll is big and the management of it is good - Why should we think about lowering betsizes? I mean.. we can't possibly know when the down- or upswings are coming. What matter is the results long term. As long as we get the money in with +EV, we're good. Result orientated thinking - What good does that give us?

Again, I actually understand and would have considered the same as you - But when we know we are making good bets, the total turnover is everything that counts in the end.. isn't it?

I know this is not easy for a human - Since we have feelings  ;)
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #52 on: September 03, 2018, 08:10:07 PM »

That is a good question.
It would be better to explain with a graph, but really i dont have the time to do it. Try visualising the following:
You observed that your long time performance is 6%. What if you find your self at a given time having a performance of 9%? Would you trust what you see, or would you continue being based in your previous conclusions?
Value Betting is not a straight line. It is a pendulum always swinging between unsustainable profits (when you go far higher than this hypothetical 6%) and moderate profits, or unjustified losses (when you go lower of far lower that this hypothetical 6%). The balanced and intelligent Value Bettor is a realist who slows down when he goes too high, and speeds up when he goes too low. Provided that his action is proved to be correct in the long run.
While enthusiasm may be necessary for great performances elsewhere, on Value Betting, it might lead to disaster. If ''what matter is the results long term'' as you say, then why dont you go for the max bet in each bet?
« Last Edit: September 03, 2018, 08:33:10 PM by Arbusers » Logged
Shawn2k
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #53 on: September 04, 2018, 08:09:57 AM »

If we had a unlimited bankroll, maxbet would be the best in all bets we thought were +EV. No mather if it was 0,1% or 100%. Obviously this is not realistic, so the bankroll should decide the betsize, and also: High positive EV = Higher Betsize & Bigger chance to win = Higher betsize.

If what you say is true, and we had a statistical program showing all of your bets: We would have found that lower betsizes had a true winrate lower then EV, while the higher betsizes had higher winrate then EV (Since we go down on betsize after a winning streak predicting we will lose, and the opposite with a losing streak). Does that make sense? Not in the long run. Maybe we could "hit" this now and then, but also this would even out?

In poker, what you say will make this happend: A player runs extremely good at a certain limit (i.e 1-2 \ 200NL). Would he then go down to a lower limit because he knows a downswing will come? I've never heard a professional doing this. The opposite is actually what happends most, even for the best professionals. This is mostly because of feelings\tilt\control again. In poker all that mathers is playing your A-game - I would say it's exactly the same for a valuebetter. As long as he's in control of what he's doing, all the bets he believe is +EV should be handled from the size of his bankroll.

As a human, we work at our best when things are going good. In big upswings we are feeling good. Why should we lower the betsize when the emotional sides are top peaking? The only reason I can find for a valuebetter with success to lower his betsize, is if he think he's not making as good bets as normal (emotional disturbed etc). Or obviously if his bankroll has a essential downswing. Trying to anticipate bad swings for me, is losing focus on what you should do. As the poker player only should focus on playing his A-Game, the valuebetter should only focus on producing +EV bets. And both should obviously never bet higher then the bankroll "allows".

I understand we don't want to lose the money won when we're running good, but think the opposite: Raising betsizes when we run bad for a while? For me both actions are irrational. I understand why we could do it, but you never know how long a streak will last.

You can't possibly know what happends next. You actually said it yourself: "You will be much more in control, when you realise how much you are not in control".
« Last Edit: September 04, 2018, 08:19:56 AM by Shawn2k » Logged
arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #54 on: September 04, 2018, 09:13:46 AM »

so the bankroll should decide the betsize

I was of the same opinion some time ago but not anymore. There are more criteria in what the bet size should be.

If what you say is true, and we had a statistical program showing all of your bets: We would have found that lower betsizes had a true winrate lower then EV, while the higher betsizes had higher winrate then EV

You should make this statement more clear.

I cant comment on poker as my experience is very limited. It seems that you are experienced in poker, so you know better than me.

As a human, we work at our best when things are going good. In big upswings we are feeling good. Why should we lower the betsize when the emotional sides are top peaking?

This is the psychology of the gambler. You have to contain it or even better cut it from the root. You just described the way dopamine works inside a gamblers brain. Read again the previous post please and analyse it to extreme depth:

While enthusiasm may be necessary for great performances elsewhere, on Value Betting, it might lead to disaster. If ''what matter is the results long term'' as you say, then why dont you go for the max bet in each bet?

Among other definitions of Value Betting, you could add this one: “A betting action which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of capital and an adequate return. Actions not meeting these requirements are speculative.”

I m not against speculative actions, because they also produce profits, some times even bigger than Value Betting and arbitrage.

but you never know how long a streak will last

You are correct, absolutely no-one knows when a streak is about to finish or start, but we can always spot a supercilium in which success chances are bigger than failure.

Thank you for the productive discussion. You add value to the forum.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2018, 10:03:42 AM by Arbusers » Logged
Shawn2k
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #55 on: September 04, 2018, 10:19:51 AM »

Let's make it simple (REALLY simple) and say we use flat stakes. Always 5 Units (1-10). Let's also say all of our bets have EV +5%. We have a insane winstreak. We then choose to lower the stakes because we think it will turn. We start using 3 Units. We do this move some times over the years after different winning streaks.

From how I understand your thinking of lowering the stakes - We can expect to have a winrate lower then 5% after this insane winning streak.

But: Can we "trick" the true EV?. In this example, the winrate will go against +5% with the 3 Unit stake. It does not mather how and when you change your stake. This will happend in the long run. Maybe we can make it correct this time, and next time, but the winrate will be +5% in the long run.

* 3 Unit bets with 5% EV will go against 5% winrate in the long run.
* 5 Unit bets with 5% EV will go against 5% winrate in the long run.

How can this be wrong?
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #56 on: September 07, 2018, 09:16:52 PM »

Professional value bettor should have iron balls. So only very little people can do value betting. Arbing and bonushunting are more easier ways.
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Arbermac
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #57 on: September 13, 2018, 09:33:45 PM »

Hi,

Just re-read through this forum and understand it a lot more than I did when previously doing so. I would like to start by saying what a great project this has been and a very successful one too which has provided a lot of insight into value betting.

My first big question is what sort of stakes are being placed? Its all good and well keeping an account live betting £10 per bet but if only making on average 30 points per month, although a nice profit this is not enough to justify putting full time hours in. I'm pretty confident if this stake rose to £100 per bet you might encounter a few more closures (I hope i'm wrong and you are already at or beyond this figure).

Secondly, if you were to incorporate the costs associated with getting the picks i.e. the bots, O4S and payments to street arbers (who would want something if they were providing their picks live and before the event) what do you think the profits would look like then?

Personally I have been value betting full time for the past 3 months and have averaged around 14% profit on turnover each month. This being said I have gone through numerous accounts at certain bookies and I am now at a point where I am running out of accounts to use. I would be willing to provide some of my results, however, they are probably a little outdated now. I am really keen to continue value betting which is why this post really appeals to me.

Looking forward to the replies.

Cheers

 
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #58 on: September 13, 2018, 10:25:06 PM »

My first big question is what sort of stakes are being placed?

No universal answer here.
- We started with O4S with an average bet of 50 euros. Now this average bet is 100 euros and we are looking to go higher with certain bookmakers and definitely with the sharp books. We didn't encounter limits and closures due to the double bet.
- The bot operating with the 4 bookmaker is set to an average bet of 10 euros. This is not necessarily bad as the number of bets is big.
- We have no idea about the average bet of the members that contribute to the ABVI with street action or on line. Already it is a huge workload and adding this parameter would request manpower that we currently don't have. We just use raw statistics from them.

if you were to incorporate the costs associated with getting the picks i.e. the bots, O4S and payments to street arbers (who would want something if they were providing their picks live and before the event) what do you think the profits would look like then?

Again no universal answer. O4S and bot developers demand their cut and they have every right to get paid for the services they offer. This cut is big but it is not killing the business. Again I have no authorisation to reveal figures with % as all developers would prefer to negotiate on a free basis with their clients with out having our forum setting a standard. We respect everyone's business.
Members that contribute with stats for street or on line Value Betting have 0% fees, with the exception of course of the fee for an alert service or is some cases for an API. This shouldn't be much again not killing the business.

I have been value betting full time for the past 3 months and have averaged around 14% profit on turnover each month. This being said I have gone through numerous accounts at certain bookies and I am now at a point where I am running out of accounts to use. 

The 14% performance is an excellent one. But you should be paying more attention to the limiting factor. I gave some initial thoughts in the other thread you started earlier today. Maybe you should be sticking to the king of gambling sports, football. Maybe, you should be avoiding arbs, by taking the odds at a time when arbs are not produced, before pinnacle and likes publish odds. These are just some thoughts to keep your brain spinning.
Feel free providing your stats. I noticed that all threads with stats are becoming very popular. After all...''Without data, you're just another person with an opinion''.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2018, 10:35:16 PM by Arbusers » Logged
arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #59 on: September 27, 2018, 09:11:54 PM »

We are having a negative September. I doubt there is time for a come back.
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