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The Arbusers Value Betting Index

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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:21 pm

Arbermac wrote: Sorry for being unclear, I just wondered if increasing the value per bet (even though the voulume of bets would decrease) would you be more profitable and less likely to have negative months?
By default, if you increase the value (edge) per bet, you have better chances to suffer less from losing streaks.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:18 am

Arbermac wrote: I just wondered if increasing the value per bet (even though the voulume of bets would decrease) would you be more profitable and less likely to have negative months?
If you are not aware of this and need someone to clarify you this, I can't imagine how you manage to be successful in arbing.
It's like asking: If I will have more money, will I be able to buy more expensive things?
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:59 am

SticyBandit wrote:
Arbermac wrote: I just wondered if increasing the value per bet (even though the voulume of bets would decrease) would you be more profitable and less likely to have negative months?
If you are not aware of this and need someone to clarify you this, I can't imagine how you manage to be successful in arbing.
It's like asking: If I will have more money, will I be able to buy more expensive things?
No, not at all.  I believe you misunderstood that question.

The real question was: would you make more money by placing fewer bets at a higher edge, or would you make more money by placing a lot more bets at a lower edge?  How would that affect variance and the accounts?
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:05 am

That makes more sense Alfa, thank you. Probably the parenthesis used is the one that makes the question look different.
The more your sample is, the better possibility you have to be successful, provided that your strategy is correct.
Here we have a teeter, a pendulum others might say. You have to find a balance so things keep going and produce profits. If you decrease the number of bets to lows, you are under danger that a losing streak would kill your business.
Therefore a golden cut must be found. I believe there is no standard answer to the question and each strategy would react differently to the reduction of bets or edge.
Good and difficult question indeed from Arbermac.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:56 am

Alfa1234 wrote:

No, not at all.  I believe you misunderstood that question.
Math is giving precise answer to this question. If he asked a question like you said the did, then his question is actually like this: If I run fast, and you run fast, will I be faster then you if I start to run little more faster.
His question in a way he wrote doesn't have an answer.
So what he asked.
If he will have bigger edge? - How much bigger?
If he will have smaller number of bets? - How much smaller?


Basic things are simple, for correct relations math is giving absolutely correct answers so you must put numbers instead of words here to get those wanted answers.
As thread started giving some chart numbers and predictions according to some model (which we don't know how is set up actually) it would be bad to continue with non-serious relations.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:06 am

Btw, neither strategy will boost you the edge you find, edge is starting relation between odds you see and probability of an outcome and is FIXED.
You can't force some math model to increase your the edge over the bookies, such thing don't exist.
To find good strategy is only related to how you will run your business according to resources you have, problems you find (limits, bookies available, number of accounts available), your starting bank, your expectations and finally  type of person you are in terms of investments/dealing with losses.
Golden cut is something that someone needs to find for him self, as golden cut in general doesn't exist from the simple fact that all those conditions I mentioned before are different from one to another.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:15 pm

YOU HAVE to bear in mind that in order to get huge turnover (decrease variance) one needs to place an enormous amount of value bets per month.
This is only possible with the assistance of bots. If you do it manually you should aim for profit every year, not every month due to lower amount of bets.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:11 pm

What a clown ????
SticyBandit wrote:
Arbermac wrote: I just wondered if increasing the value per bet (even though the voulume of bets would decrease) would you be more profitable and less likely to have negative months?
If you are not aware of this and need someone to clarify you this, I can't imagine how you manage to be successful in arbing.
It's like asking: If I will have more money, will I be able to buy more expensive things?
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:20 pm

With this in mind, after two months loss in a row, would you now reduce the amount of bets you place and increase the edge (even if only by small amounts each way) or or you happy to keep going as you are?

Arbusers wrote: That makes more sense Alfa, thank you. Probably the parenthesis used is the one that makes the question look different.
The more your sample is, the better possibility you have to be successful, provided that your strategy is correct.
Here we have a teeter, a pendulum others might say. You have to find a balance so things keep going and produce profits. If you decrease the number of bets to lows, you are under danger that a losing streak would kill your business.
Therefore a golden cut must be found. I believe there is no standard answer to the question and each strategy would react differently to the reduction of bets or edge.
Good and difficult question indeed from Arbermac.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:32 pm

Are we thinking to much about getting the large turnover that we allow ourselves to take bets that just arnt profitable enough though?
jpdias101 wrote: YOU HAVE to bear in mind that in order to get huge turnover (decrease variance) one needs to place an enormous amount of value bets per month.
This is only possible with the assistance of bots. If you do it manually you should aim for profit every year, not every month due to lower amount of bets.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:57 am

Arbermac wrote: With this in mind, after two months loss in a row, would you now reduce the amount of bets you place and increase the edge (even if only by small amounts each way) or or you happy to keep going as you are?
Reducing or increasing the amount of bets is not a matter of winning or losing streaks. Let's not confuse the amount of bets with the height of bets. These are 2 different things.
Already, after October 28th we are getting positive and there are good possibilities that we end November positively.
It goes with out saying that when a factor is changing, you must correct your strategy and your operating procedures. For example, we mentioned that:
Arbusers wrote: one well known soft bookmaker is now very careful with the opening lines creating less opportunities for profit.
This event should be treated the very minute it was observed. If a bookmaker changes the quality of the odds, you must study this phenomenon and see if it works for or against you. In our situation it worked against us and our mistake was that we didn't change our strategy until very late.
As far as it concerns the edge again there is no universal answer. In some events we are looking for a bigger edge, while we feel comfortable with a lower edge in certain markets. The very general idea is that you have to beat the lines, including the margins of the bookmaker, or the margin of the sharpest bookmaker is some occasions. If you embrace this idea, you then treat each market selectively and you decide which edge is good and which is not.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:01 am

Arbusers wrote: one well known soft bookmaker is now very careful with the opening lines creating less opportunities for profit.
“This event should be treated the very minute it was observed. If a bookmaker changes the quality of the odds, you must study this phenomenon and see if it works for or against you. In our situation it worked against us and our mistake was that we didn't change our strategy until very late.”

Why were bets still placed after this was established? The automatically placed bets would only be placed if there was still the requested edge surely? And Manuel bets the person placing the bets would notice the change and that it was no longer worth placing the bets.

I’m not having a go here, just genuinely interested ????
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:14 am

The index is compiled by several Value Betting projects. Some of them are automatic while others are manual.
O4S is operating manual and not automatic like a Value Betting bot. That is why it takes some time until you notice a change in the behaviour of a bookmaker. Bots detect this change the very moment they are implemented.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Fri Nov 23, 2018 2:24 am

Shawn2k wrote: If we had a unlimited bankroll, maxbet would be the best in all bets we thought were +EV. No mather if it was 0,1% or 100%. Obviously this is not realistic, so the bankroll should decide the betsize, and also: High positive EV = Higher Betsize & Bigger chance to win = Higher betsize.

If what you say is true, and we had a statistical program showing all of your bets: We would have found that lower betsizes had a true winrate lower then EV, while the higher betsizes had higher winrate then EV (Since we go down on betsize after a winning streak predicting we will lose, and the opposite with a losing streak). Does that make sense? Not in the long run. Maybe we could "hit" this now and then, but also this would even out?

In poker, what you say will make this happend: A player runs extremely good at a certain limit (i.e 1-2 \ 200NL). Would he then go down to a lower limit because he knows a downswing will come? I've never heard a professional doing this. The opposite is actually what happends most, even for the best professionals. This is mostly because of feelings\tilt\control again. In poker all that mathers is playing your A-game - I would say it's exactly the same for a valuebetter. As long as he's in control of what he's doing, all the bets he believe is +EV should be handled from the size of his bankroll.

As a human, we work at our best when things are going good. In big upswings we are feeling good. Why should we lower the betsize when the emotional sides are top peaking? The only reason I can find for a valuebetter with success to lower his betsize, is if he think he's not making as good bets as normal (emotional disturbed etc). Or obviously if his bankroll has a essential downswing. Trying to anticipate bad swings for me, is losing focus on what you should do. As the poker player only should focus on playing his A-Game, the valuebetter should only focus on producing +EV bets. And both should obviously never bet higher then the bankroll "allows".

I understand we don't want to lose the money won when we're running good, but think the opposite: Raising betsizes when we run bad for a while? For me both actions are irrational. I understand why we could do it, but you never know how long a streak will last.

You can't possibly know what happends next. You actually said it yourself: "You will be much more in control, when you realise how much you are not in control".
Agree. Back to the coin flip analogy. If you get 10 heads in a row, it is still 50/50 on the next flip.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:36 pm

We, the ODDS4STATS team think, that it's time to leave a comment on the AVBI forum.

Our thoughts have two main goals:
- Sharing with you the changes, experiences and important conclusions of the past period.
- Give you an insight into how the ODDS4STATS odds strategy creation works.


First of all, it is worth knowing:
The mission of ODDS4STATS is to offer top tips and tip-strategies for our users to be successful in sports betting, based on our bigdata, validated accurately and with high-level maths, analyzes and strategies.
 
1. The AVBI portfolio and the lessons of the past 1 year:

From the launch of the AVBI portfolio, ODDS4STATS performed very well over the Q1-Q3 of this year. The numbers showed the results themselves, so we did not have to comment on Arbusers' regular reports. In this period from February to September, during the 2484 events, Arbusers' unit charts showed a 9.89% yield. This was, of course, an awesome period. But we do not want to talk about this period now. But the next one, having very important conclusions.

From the beginning of September, until the end of October, we ran into a very strong downswing. We are adding, we expected, and even we waited for the fall, but not to such an extent. This period, after about 1000 events, showed -7.74% yield on Arbusers' unit chart!

This negative period has led us to find the mistakes and focus on our strongest, most promising strategy.

It is worth knowing again, that the ODDS4STATS team has consistently processed data for years. Database is analyzed and verified record by record. We analyze short- and long-term basis as well and this way we forecast the results for the future. Some of our strategies have proven for more than 3 years that we have been on track, we are on the rigth way.

2. The main problems and conclusions, of the past period

2/1. One of the main problems of the past period is that Marathonbet - and several other soft bookies - have rearranged their market activity so far. One of the most important changes is that they do not give very early and very high odds.

Yes, Marathonbet, I know now many people shake their heads. But based on our calculations and algorithms, we can work at high quality level with Marathonbet data. However, this office has surprisingly high liquidity opportunities in a high reputation market. Reasonable game and no limit! The Arbusers can confirm this.

The change in Marathonbet has had a strong effect on our performance, since we could make 20-30% of our bets earlier to Marathonbet's events. At this time it is only 5% now!
A similar problem is the termination of WilliamHill's "Boost odds" promotion, which did not help us as well.

We would add that it is very important to know that ODDS4STATS does not want to beat soft book offices, but base offices. Fortunately, because of our enormous and very accurate quality odds database, our possibilities seem endless.

2/2. Another thing that everyone should be very careful to keep in mind when working with a large database!

There was no strong drop in yield for months that we waited for with the Arbusers colleague to have the right entry point to raise our bets. After the long wait, we tought that the start of the new season by mid-July will be fine to raise our bets.

It was predicted that there was going to be a downturn, but this period came about 1.5 months later than the we tought.

It is a very important lesson and a conclusion that before deciding to raise, you have to predefine the extent of possible downturn (eg. 250 events with -10% yield or 500 events with -7.5%), thus reducing any losses. But experience says that we can not be prepared for all extremes, because the extreme records will be also beaten again and again - do not have illusions. However, we did not wait for the accurate drop - we made a mistake! Do not make this mistake!

And where are we going now?

We have analyzed and have been thinking a lot about market changes, and we have taken the right steps to be aligned to the bookmakers' changes. It was enough to fine tune, we did not have to radically modify our previous strategies. After the refinements, the results are appropriate again. With these thoughtful steps we decreased the risks, and we are very positive about the future!

We will continue to be constructive, and we will continue to develop. Therefore, and looking at the needs and requests of our users, a very positive progress and development is expected soon in the life of ODDS4STATS. This will bring strong advance to ODDS4STATS users over other sports bettors. Soon we will announce this, stay tuned!
Last edited by O4S on Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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