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The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
Shawn2k
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:33 pm

For how many bets is the downswing lasting? And do you have a ROI for it? Seems extremely brutal.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:17 am

Thank you Arbusers this post. We would like to emphasize, how objective Arbusers's analyses and thoughts are.

Some important thoughts:

At the beginning of February 2018, our target was an average monthly yield of 5-6%, which, based on the preliminary estimates, meant about 50% profit compared to the investment. Of course, the costs should also be taken into account here, but since the plan was completed successfully by the end of the year, we can be satisfied.

At the same time (as Arbusers and we also wrote earlier) after raising the stakes, we had 1 positive month and then 2 negative ones, which had a very strong effect on the final result, unfortunately negatively.

Reality for the future remains a 5-6% monthly yield, what we can beat the base and soft bookies with, using our strategies. The amount of our data is representative, so we still believe in quantitative analysis that guarantees realistic and sustainable returns.

In addition, it is also important to say, that the stakes can be raise significantly. We just have to catch the right time for the raise (or for the entry point). Hard task.

Good news, that the day is very close when ODDS4STATS will provide much more assistance to ODDS4STATS users than ever before. Stay tuned!
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:04 am

One of the good things of O4S is that even exchanges and sharp bookmakers produced profit. We might explore some opportunities there, because Value Betting with Betfair and Pinnacle only is possible.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:15 pm

ODDS4STATS wrote: We want to remain factual: the current Marathonbet account, used by ODDS4STATS, is beyond the 1000 placed bet. This account has been alive since the beginning of 2018 and has generated a yield of 7.64% from the beginnings, which of course means more payments. Arbusers can confirm it.

Again, we add that we avoid arbitrage with our bets.
If you avoid “arbitrage” bets, you avoid value bets. Value bets are the bets that can be potentially used as a soft side of an arbitrage pair. What do I miss?
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:59 pm

The last 4 O4S tips:

- Kidderminster 3.14 Marathonbet
- Forfar 1.94 Pinnacle
- Dumbarton 2.26 Betfair with 2%
- Club America 2.30 Pinnacle

You can check and see, 3 bets is basebook, and 1 is soft.
We have a unique and self-developed mathematical formula.
Last edited by O4S on Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Mi_t_is
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:20 pm

is anybody here who has atleast 10k bets on pinnacle with profit around 3-5%? Betting via his own bot?
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:11 am

Mi_t_is wrote: is anybody here who has atleast 10k bets on pinnacle with profit around 3-5%? Betting via his own bot?

Hello Arbusers & Friends,

my project is known by arbusers and he motivated me to join that thread which I love to do now as start into the new year - thanks for that.

I did follow that thread for long already, also was giving arbusers some of my samples which he already posted here.

My bot does have accs on misc. bookies - one acc with 9872 bets right now without getting banned/still operational, showing 4,72% ROI over the entire period which is 6+ month now.


Regards
WGFP 
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:44 am

ODDS4STATS wrote: The last 4 O4S tips:

- Kidderminster 3.14 Marathonbet
- Forfar 1.94 Pinnacle
- Dumbarton 2.26 Betfair with 2%
- Club America 2.30 Pinnacle

You can check and see, 3 bets is basebook, and 1 is soft.
We have a unique and self-developed mathematical formula.
If basebooks act as softbooks and hold the value, who acts as "basebooks" for basebooks and show which of their odds have the value?
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:37 am

Bubbles wrote:
ODDS4STATS wrote: The last 4 O4S tips:

- Kidderminster 3.14 Marathonbet
- Forfar 1.94 Pinnacle
- Dumbarton 2.26 Betfair with 2%
- Club America 2.30 Pinnacle

You can check and see, 3 bets is basebook, and 1 is soft.
We have a unique and self-developed mathematical formula.
If basebooks act as softbooks and hold the value, who acts as "basebooks" for basebooks and show which of their odds have the value?
Your question is not valid, there can very well be value in basebooks at any given time, as their odds adjust all the time.  Basically if the bets are beating the basebook closing odds long term, they will have been betting value.

It can probably also be done long term by finding market inefficiëncies in the closing line, although I am sceptical about this myself.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:23 pm

Alfa1234 wrote: there can very well be value in basebooks at any given time, as their odds adjust all the time.  Basically if the bets are beating the basebook closing odds long term, they will have been betting value.
You're right, but how do they find this value "at any given time" and beat "the basebook closing odds long term" without having any "basebooks’ basebook" to compare the odds?

The only alternative that springs to mind is to calculate odds yourself, assuming you have a better knowledge (your odds reflects reality better) than the market as represented by the odds of basebooks and than find value in basebooks odds. Doing this in sufficient market would be - if you’re not a Tony Bloom - close to impossible to achieve (could work with smaller and niche markets).
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:45 pm

WGFP wrote:
Mi_t_is wrote: is anybody here who has atleast 10k bets on pinnacle with profit around 3-5%? Betting via his own bot?
My bot does have accs on misc. bookies - one acc with 9872 bets right now without getting banned/still operational, showing 4,72% ROI over the entire period which is 6+ month now.

Regards
WGFP
How is this possible to place so many bets and not getting limited? You are making profit, so this is a real wonder for me. The misc. bookies are probably not asians.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:53 pm

thorocska wrote:
WGFP wrote:
Mi_t_is wrote: is anybody here who has atleast 10k bets on pinnacle with profit around 3-5%? Betting via his own bot?
My bot does have accs on misc. bookies - one acc with 9872 bets right now without getting banned/still operational, showing 4,72% ROI over the entire period which is 6+ month now.

Regards
WGFP
How is this possible to place so many bets and not getting limited? You are making profit, so this is a real wonder for me. The misc. bookies are probably not asians.
'not getting limited' = not getting limited to 0, keep that in mind and do the maths
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:09 pm

correct - exactly as geetz saying.
Also limited to xy € accounts can make money over a time
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:27 pm

Bubbles wrote:
Alfa1234 wrote: there can very well be value in basebooks at any given time, as their odds adjust all the time.  Basically if the bets are beating the basebook closing odds long term, they will have been betting value.
You're right, but how do they find this value "at any given time" and beat "the basebook closing odds long term" without having any "basebooks’ basebook" to compare the odds?

The only alternative that springs to mind is to calculate odds yourself, assuming you have a better knowledge (your odds reflects reality better) than the market as represented by the odds of basebooks and than find value in basebooks odds. Doing this in sufficient market would be - if you’re not a Tony Bloom - close to impossible to achieve (could work with smaller and niche markets).
I believe you should consider the vast database they have and the relatively small amount of edges they can identify.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index

Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:41 pm

WGFP wrote:
Mi_t_is wrote: is anybody here who has atleast 10k bets on pinnacle with profit around 3-5%? Betting via his own bot?

Hello Arbusers & Friends,

my project is known by arbusers and he motivated me to join that thread which I love to do now as start into the new year - thanks for that.

I did follow that thread for long already, also was giving arbusers some of my samples which he already posted here.

My bot does have accs on misc. bookies - one acc with 9872 bets right now without getting banned/still operational, showing 4,72% ROI over the entire period which is 6+ month now.


Regards
WGFP
Do you have any isolated stats for Pinnacle and\or other asians\exchanges?

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