placing arbs in accumulators with value bets

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shinycarletto
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shinycarletto

placing arbs in accumulators with value bets
« on: April 16, 2018, 07:42:49 PM »

Hello everyone, during this last two years i've studied a lot of theory about arbing, and now i'm going to start doing it. (at the moment i'm doing value betting).

I've developed a little trick wich i think that will reduce the risk of beeing limited that is combining the leg of an arb which is in the softbook in multiple with value bets.

In that case the risk of ruin isn't zero like in normal arbs, but the expected value is higher than normal arbs or normal value bets due to the multiplication of the advantage.

I would like to ask to you if have you ever tested such a strategy.
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alealeale
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alealeale

Re: placing arbs in accumulators with value bets
« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2018, 09:00:54 PM »

Hello, sometimes I bet a parlay on the soft bookie combining two arbs...I don't understand what you are referring to with "value bets" for the second leg.
You'd better choose a positive arb also for the second wager because if the first one is a winner
you're going to double (if first odd on the soft is @2) the risk for the second bet and the odd on the
sharp bookie could even drop in the meantime.

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shinycarletto
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Re: placing arbs in accumulators with value bets
« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2018, 09:59:32 PM »

Sorry maybe i didn't clearly explain myself, english isn't my mother language.

Let's imagine we have and arb within a soft and a sharp with 2 outcomes(A,B) 50% chance each, at odds 2.05 and 2.05.

And we find a value bet on the soft via (statystical modelling or tipster ecc.) with on outcome we say (C) at 50% chances and an odd of 2.05, to keep it simple, so it's ev is =(1/2*1.05-1/2)=0.25

at this point on the soft book we place this bet: one leg of the arb*value bet at total odds of 4,2025 (A*C) and on the sharp which doesn't limit us we place the other leg of the arb in single at odds 2.05 (B).

so we are concerned with these outcomes which covers the probability space [AC, AD, B] consider a 2 units bankroll and we bet 1 unit in the soft and 1 in the sharp; our final expected bankroll is: [0,25*4,2025+0,25*0+0,5*2,05]=2,0756 which is higher than our starting bankroll of 2 units, for sure our risk of ruin now is at 25%. But of what i've learned speaking with an ex-bookmaker owner this should be enough to resemble a recreational bettor also more legs you add more you resemble.

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alealeale
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alealeale

Re: placing arbs in accumulators with value bets
« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2018, 06:58:25 AM »

Ok, so you would mix strategies placing an arb and a big value bet (risking to lose everything only in case of AD)...There was a misunderstanding because you told that you'd like to begin to arb.
By the way it's logic, the more the better (legs). If you are specialized in value bets, you could use this method on some bookies that give you bonus even on 3/4 accumulators.
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shinycarletto
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Re: placing arbs in accumulators with value bets
« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2018, 06:27:49 PM »

Yes exactly, for the risk management is doing priorly via money management,  the idea is that by doing this way i could reduce the risk of beeing limited and also can try to catch some bonuses; obviously arb and value bets should be ordered by time to be coherent with the strategy so there is also the option to cash out the accomulator via laying on the exchange.
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Wannabe
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Re: placing arbs in accumulators with value bets
« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2018, 08:51:37 PM »

Can I ask why you want to play arbs if you can identify value bets? Are you not better off just backing the value bets as if you are arbing you are giving away your expected value. If you manage your bankroll and are willing to take the risks if you are correctly identifying value in the long run you should make more than if you are arbing.
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shinycarletto
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Re: placing arbs in accumulators with value bets
« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2018, 06:05:32 AM »

The arbs don't suffer from risk of ruin, via multiplying their real value for the expected value of the value bet, the risk of my value bet is decreased and also vice versa i should have decreased the risk of ban. So in the end i'm trading my free time for less risk. Also i do not spot value bets everywhere while arbs are everywhere. If i didn't fully explain myself feel free to ask again.
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alealeale
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alealeale

Re: placing arbs in accumulators with value bets
« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2018, 07:46:13 AM »

Arbs are everywhere but they last a short time...at least on the bookies that I use  :D
so my advice is always to keep ready the second leg (value bet) because if you spot an arb
you will not have time to looking for a subsequent value bet, in the meantime the arb would expire
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shinycarletto
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Re: placing arbs in accumulators with value bets
« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2018, 08:53:56 AM »

Thanks for the advice, i've seen that you are from italy too, so may i ask which books are you using?
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alealeale
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Re: placing arbs in accumulators with value bets
« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2018, 09:05:50 AM »

bet365, eurobet, betflag, intralot, sisal, snai, unibet, sportyes, betfair, goalwin, planet, stanleybet but in the last months/years they are very very fast to fix their odds, indeed i'm in a gain descent trend after 2015 (personal record) but that's life  :D
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Wannabe
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Re: placing arbs in accumulators with value bets
« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2018, 03:14:18 PM »

My point is if you can identify the value arb you are better off not arbing. For example if true odds are 50-50 and one bookie offers 2.1 and the other offers 1.95 you can back both sides to guarantee a profit but you get high expected value if you just back the 2.1.
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shinycarletto
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Re: placing arbs in accumulators with value bets
« Reply #11 on: April 19, 2018, 12:46:30 PM »

Yeah your point is correct but i prefer to lower the risk and  the volatility by mixing, cause the coefficent risk/reward is better if you mix.
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