How to price events

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AlissonJC
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AlissonJC

How to price events
« on: April 21, 2018, 03:40:16 AM »

Hi guys

I do sports arbitrage for a while but I really want to become a professional sports investor.

I am studying and studying a lot. But now I am seeing something and a got into a dead end: how can I price an event and then compare to the bookie's odds and find the value between the lines?

Thank you all
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Alfa1234
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Re: How to price events
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2018, 09:14:39 AM »

You input all possible data you can think of into a model and let it spit out the numbers.  Then you test that about 100 000 times and if your number is "better" than the bookie line, you would have made money on it so you backtest it.

Let us know how that goes.

Seriously, do you really think, even if someone has this answer, they would simply post it here on a forum?  Accurately predicting the probability of a sports outcome is extremely difficult and that info is worth billions.
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dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: How to price events
« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2018, 09:34:59 AM »

There is no sportsbook/person on the planet that can accurately price up sports events. 

The sharp ones (Pinny etc) get it close enough with their years of experiance, and they offer small limits on their early lines which will move with the weight of money until "The" line is found.  Its quite brilliant, and no individual will ever be able to beat such an ingenious way of forming the true line!
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: How to price events
« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2018, 11:24:09 AM »

AlissonJC is talking about market reading. This requests years and years of experience and in some times knowledge and information not available from open sources.
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: How to price events
« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2018, 11:59:25 AM »

Real value investors are in small leagues. I don't like models, because u probably are not able to beat juice anyway
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MisterRodriguez
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MisterRodriguez

Re: How to price events
« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2018, 07:10:53 PM »

Maletaja you might be a good arber but please dont spill nonsens specially on stuff you dont have a fucking clue about.
Modelling is the way to beat this game in relevant markets.You are just a rat eating the small cheese left
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Chipmunk
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Re: How to price events
« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2018, 12:44:33 PM »

Two ways:

1) You have an information advantage, for example early notice of injuries, or a team resting players because of fatigue.

2) Keep up to date with latest machine learning developments, and also have a significant understanding of the sport in question (without the latter, the former is very difficult to apply).


The former lacks volume, but gives sizable and reliable EV. The latter is a full-time job, and often done in syndicates.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2018, 12:46:36 PM by Chipmunk » Logged
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