0-0 insurance

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AceJack
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AceJack

0-0 insurance
« on: April 21, 2018, 10:05:00 AM »

I see several casinos are running this and I have been wondering if I should start playing these events. Are my calculations wrong here:

Back Bet promo casino 25, EURO , Liverpool @1,55
Lay: 1,59 with 2% commision

Net -1 USD

At betfair 0-0 is trading at 15. So I should expect to lose 15 times x 1 for a net loss of  -14,97 however every time the matches end 0-0 I would Get a 25 Euro freebet and I have calculated net retention rate for the freebet to 75% or 22,47 USD

meaning after this match has been played 15 times I would be net 7,49 USD 

am I way off here ? I think actually I should calculate 14*1 as 15 in odds means expected losses 14 and one win ? would make this even better deal
« Last Edit: April 21, 2018, 10:18:46 AM by AceJack » Logged
Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: 0-0 insurance
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2018, 10:29:44 AM »

Or lay the 0-0 at Betfair for a small profit each time, while if you lose you get the free bet.  ;)
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: 0-0 insurance
« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2018, 12:00:18 PM »

0-0 could add 5% value not much to overcame juice
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AceJack
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AceJack

Re: 0-0 insurance
« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2018, 02:16:30 PM »

Quote
Or lay the 0-0 at Betfair for a small profit each time, while if you lose you get the free bet.  ;)

This is also something I have been doing but that is insanely complicated as one need to bet:

Home @ 0-0 insured site
away
1-1
2-2
3-3
any other draw

+ 0-0 for stake above

SO this is much better to do on matches where two sites are offering bore-draw money back


I kinda like the option from my first post when I only have one site with bore-draw insurance.

0-0 could add 5% value not much to overcame juice

Obviously this is not a huge moneymaker but a little value and I will take it + those sites will give you some bonus for being a regular punter and for sure keep your betting limit intact.

This is also something I've been looking into:
 - Keeping track of losses and the casino interpretation of my player behavior. You will get much better treatment from the casino when betting the big leagues with bad/low odds
   compared to betfair/asians they just love customers like this:) 
« Last Edit: April 21, 2018, 02:24:19 PM by AceJack » Logged
AceJack
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AceJack

Re: 0-0 insurance
« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2018, 02:47:50 PM »

Just a little update did this calculation for match watford - Crystal Palace , Expected value is a staggering 0,2353 USD , LOL :)
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AceJack
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AceJack

Re: 0-0 insurance
« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2018, 09:25:37 AM »

Just a little update after 1 week + 50 USD doing this , that is enough for a new T-Shirt :)
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