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0-0 insurance

Make bookmakers cash cow machines
AceJack
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0-0 insurance

Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:05 am

I see several casinos are running this and I have been wondering if I should start playing these events. Are my calculations wrong here:

Back Bet promo casino 25, EURO , Liverpool @1,55
Lay: 1,59 with 2% commision

Net -1 USD

At betfair 0-0 is trading at 15. So I should expect to lose 15 times x 1 for a net loss of  -14,97 however every time the matches end 0-0 I would Get a 25 Euro freebet and I have calculated net retention rate for the freebet to 75% or 22,47 USD

meaning after this match has been played 15 times I would be net 7,49 USD 

am I way off here ? I think actually I should calculate 14*1 as 15 in odds means expected losses 14 and one win ? would make this even better deal
Last edited by AceJack on Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
Alfa1234
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Re: 0-0 insurance

Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:29 am

Or lay the 0-0 at Betfair for a small profit each time, while if you lose you get the free bet.  ;)
maletaja
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Re: 0-0 insurance

Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:00 am

0-0 could add 5% value not much to overcame juice
AceJack
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Re: 0-0 insurance

Sat Apr 21, 2018 1:16 pm

Or lay the 0-0 at Betfair for a small profit each time, while if you lose you get the free bet.  ;)
This is also something I have been doing but that is insanely complicated as one need to bet:

Home @ 0-0 insured site
away
1-1
2-2
3-3
any other draw

+ 0-0 for stake above

SO this is much better to do on matches where two sites are offering bore-draw money back


I kinda like the option from my first post when I only have one site with bore-draw insurance.
maletaja wrote: 0-0 could add 5% value not much to overcame juice
Obviously this is not a huge moneymaker but a little value and I will take it + those sites will give you some bonus for being a regular punter and for sure keep your betting limit intact.

This is also something I've been looking into:
- Keeping track of losses and the casino interpretation of my player behavior. You will get much better treatment from the casino when betting the big leagues with bad/low odds
  compared to betfair/asians they just love customers like this:) 
Last edited by AceJack on Sat Apr 21, 2018 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
AceJack
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Re: 0-0 insurance

Sat Apr 21, 2018 1:47 pm

Just a little update did this calculation for match watford - Crystal Palace , Expected value is a staggering 0,2353 USD , LOL :)
AceJack
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Re: 0-0 insurance

Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:25 am

Just a little update after 1 week + 50 USD doing this , that is enough for a new T-Shirt :)

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