True line & Pinnacle\Betfair

Pages: [1]
Author Topic: True line & Pinnacle\Betfair  (Read 3125 times)
Shawn2k
Has experience
**

Karma: 3
Posts: 101


View Profile

Shawn2k

True line & Pinnacle\Betfair
« on: May 04, 2018, 01:59:57 PM »

Hi  :)

I'm just curious about how people think about this. Pinnacle and Betfair is what most sharps\professionals are using as the "true line". In another topic we discussed the variance of juice between low odds (like 1,20) and high odds (like 7,50). As fair as I know, we can assume Pinnacle lines got higher juice as the odds get higher. If this wasn't true, there would have been a jungle of big valuebets at the exchanges (i.e Huddersfield against Man City sunday 34 @ Betfair vs 26 @ Pinnacle... if 26 just had 2% juice, 34 @ Huddersfield would have been a magnificent bet, at least if we don't care about variance).

So this leads me to some question\thoughts:
1) Some people think that juice is higher on the big favourites, because this is what most people bet...... but how can that be true? Then we would have had plenty of value at the underdogs, which again can't be true?
2) Since Betfair actually have better odds in a lot of spots, is it more correct to use them as the true line, rather then Pinnacle? What I mean is: It seems like the juice is better shared between the diffent outcomes.
3) Can we assume we always have a valuebet, if we can sell at lower odds? (i.e We bet at Brighton @ 5,20 tonight, and could LAY @ 5,00 @ Betfair).
4) I understand a lot of people is valuebetting in the area between 1,50 and 4,00, mostly between 1,80-3,50 (Not 100% sure if I'm right, but it's what I often hear)? Anyway... Since the juice is lowest on low odds, why don't people bet much on the big favourites when they actually find value? The variance should also be better with this?



Thoughts anyone?  ;D
Logged
Alfa1234
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 49
Posts: 956


View Profile

Alfa1234

Re: True line & Pinnacle\Betfair
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2018, 08:59:42 PM »

My experience on nr 1 is actually most favourites are underpriced (odd too low) because a lot of punters bet them thinking they're a "sure win".  Inherently, underdogs have some value.  Thousands of punters betting Man United will drive that odd down (making the opponent go up), although it can hardly be called smart money.  Some would argue it the other way around...

2. Betfair has a more correct line compared to Pinnacle because their "overround" on the odds is closer to 100%, making them "juice free".  This only goes for fully formed markets.

3.  Yes to me that would always indicate value. Again, that only goes if the market is fully formed although one could argue it depends on the market size (big market or not) and the time of bet placement.

4. See nr 1...although it really doesn't matter what the odd is as long as you have value.  The odds between 1.5 and 4 are there mostly to decrease variance.  If you have a 5% edge on an odd of 1.08 you'll make the same amount of money (if you adjust your stake) as an edge of 5% on an odd of 4 but the variance varies greatly.
Logged
barbero
Pro
****

Karma: 25
Posts: 362


View Profile

barbero

Re: True line & Pinnacle\Betfair
« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2018, 12:10:52 AM »

The favourite-longshot bias is relevant here, check it out if you haven't already
Logged
Shawn2k
Has experience
**

Karma: 3
Posts: 101


View Profile

Shawn2k

Re: True line & Pinnacle\Betfair
« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2018, 08:45:53 AM »

Thanks guys.

Read some about the Favourite Longshot bias. It's very interesting and also close to what I thought.

Alfa: Even though I agree with you that a lot of bettors will bet the favourite and push the odds down, we still have all the sharps, professionals etc who will bet the opposite when they get good enough odds. So it should somehow even out, and then the juice is lowest on the favourite?

Let us say ROI is 98% at Pinnacle. If the juice was 2% or more for favourite at Pinnacle, there would have been big valuebets at the exchanges for the underdog... and I can't see how that's possible?
« Last Edit: May 07, 2018, 08:51:12 AM by Shawn2k » Logged
Trevorr
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 2
Posts: 73


View Profile

Trevorr

Re: True line & Pinnacle\Betfair
« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2018, 10:15:51 AM »

About "true lines". How can professionals make money if Pinnacle odds were "true lines"? There is no such thing like true lines, there can be value on Pinnacle also. I know professional bettors who made huge money this way. I don't have balls to value bet there, because it's tough game, value there is only for a moment but it's possible.
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 436
Posts: 4260



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: True line & Pinnacle\Betfair
« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2018, 10:28:19 AM »

There is a simple mathematical approach:
1. Pinnacle lines are profitable for pinnacle.
2. If you are able to have better than Pinnacle lines with the respected margin of each event added in your odds, then you will be positive also in the long run.
3. Here is a big exception that makes all the difference. It is called “Value traps”. If you are able to identify and avoid them, then you fall to 1,2 and you are profitable in the long run.

I will try to post something about value traps in the future.
Logged
procentas
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 7


View Profile

procentas

Re: True line & Pinnacle\Betfair
« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2018, 11:26:02 PM »

What do you mean in point number 2? I'm not quite sure
There is a simple mathematical approach:
1. Pinnacle lines are profitable for pinnacle.
2. If you are able to have better than Pinnacle lines with the respected margin of each event added in your odds, then you will be positive also in the long run.
3. Here is a big exception that makes all the difference. It is called “Value traps”. If you are able to identify and avoid them, then you fall to 1,2 and you are profitable in the long run.

I will try to post something about value traps in the future.
Logged
Samael
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 3
Posts: 67


View Profile

Samael

Re: True line & Pinnacle\Betfair
« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2018, 01:25:37 PM »


I will try to post something about value traps in the future.
[/quote]
[/quote]

Im interested if we thinking about same,Pinnacle has a lot of value traps,when you start reading them right you are onto something
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 436
Posts: 4260



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: True line & Pinnacle\Betfair
« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2018, 04:21:43 PM »


I will try to post something about value traps in the future.
[/quote]

Im interested if we thinking about same,Pinnacle has a lot of value traps,when you start reading them right you are onto something
[/quote]

Correct, Pinnacle and other bookmakers are full of value traps. That is why their profits are far bigger than what their margins could justify.
Logged
Pages: [1]
Print