Real newb. Is this an Arb?

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Unseul
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Unseul

Real newb. Is this an Arb?
« on: May 17, 2018, 10:16:02 AM »

https://smarkets.com/event/922205/sport/football/europe-uefa-champions-league/2018/05/26/real-madrid-cf-vs-liverpool-fc

I can lay against Real Madrid at 1.75 to lift the trophy here.

https://www.betdaq.com/exchange/soccer/uefa-champions-league/champions-league-matches/(26-05)-real-madrid-v-liverpool-(live)/4921696

I can bet that real madrid will lift the trophy at 1.76 here.

2% commission on both of these exchanges that I can see.

I think (and could be wrong) that I can bet 287gbp and be matched when I'm looking, and using a back/lay calculator would have a back stake of 281.6gbp. Giving a princely profit (after commission) of 1.57?

I realise for the purposes of actually trading, placing a bet 9 days in advance, for such a small profit, is probably not the best use of funds, but in theory it's a profitable bet right? Or am I screwing up somewhere?
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Alfa1234
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Re: Real newb. Is this an Arb?
« Reply #1 on: May 17, 2018, 03:05:13 PM »

Nope, you are screwing up.

On Betdaq the "actual" odd is 1.76-2% making it 1.74 after commission.  I think you are forgetting the 2% commission will be paid on the entire profit of the back bet, not just your profit of the arb.
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Unseul
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Re: Real newb. Is this an Arb?
« Reply #2 on: May 17, 2018, 04:51:45 PM »

I'm sure I set the commission, however clearly either I screwed up, or I screwed up in how I thought the calculator worked!

Thank you for pointing that out to me. I've had a look at a few others, and noted that the commission takes out any possible profit, but thought that one was OK.

Not yet in a position to start betting/arbing/trading etc, but plan to be working from home in a few months, and saw this as an opportunity to try filling in empty time with (and potentially more).

EDIT - Just to clarify, this would have worked if it had all been in a single exchange right like betfair)? Because then it's the commission across the Arb, whereas spreading across 2 exchanges, means I have to pay "full" commission on one of them.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2018, 05:02:34 PM by Unseul » Logged
Alfa1234
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Re: Real newb. Is this an Arb?
« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2018, 05:32:56 PM »

Yes that's correct, however you will not find any arbs on a single exchange like that as the market "eats" those instantly through the use of bots.
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Unseul
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Re: Real newb. Is this an Arb?
« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2018, 05:37:14 PM »

No surprises there. Thank you for explaining my error, and I'm glad i figured out what i was doing wrong since it'll help the lesson stick.
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