10.000 picks with a 5% yield

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jimmortal
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jimmortal

10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« on: May 26, 2018, 07:47:40 AM »

I salute all the members of the forum.

I am currently working on a strategy and doing a research .I keep a track record of 10.000 picks and the yield is +5%+.The average odd is 2.20 and betting is only in football.Betting on Asian markets+exchanges and around 5-10% in bet365. System contains value bets,tipster's logic,algorithm based picks, +10% live betting.Around 1.200 bets per month.

My question is this.After how many games do you consider a yield SOLID???

Thank you for your time



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arbusers
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Re: 10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2018, 11:39:20 AM »

What is the strategy?
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jimmortal
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Re: 10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2018, 02:26:46 PM »

Strategy is based on value bets,tipster's logic,algorithm based picks, +10% live betting

Something like the value tool that you have built...
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arbusers
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Re: 10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2018, 03:26:59 PM »

Still no strategy. The tool is not a strategy, it counts performances.
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junoreactor
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Re: 10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2018, 04:05:48 PM »

5% for 10,000 is incredibly good, honestly.

Steve from daily25 is far from this number and he is one of the most professional punter out there (at least among the ones who advertise their results).
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jimmortal
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Re: 10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2018, 05:11:30 PM »

Still no strategy. The tool is not a strategy, it counts performances.

Still working in the strategy.But the results are with flat stakes , 1% of the capital,with no warnings for lower the bets.Sometimes,it is possible to double the stake,but for now I do not want to take this risk.

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jimmortal
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Re: 10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2018, 05:14:53 PM »

5% for 10,000 is incredibly good, honestly.

Steve from daily25 is far from this number and he is one of the most professional punter out there (at least among the ones who advertise their results).

I can understand that.Of course 5% is more than anybody can expect.

But my question is,if this yield will be the same after 20.000 games...What are the possibilities to change?Just have in mind that there are 1.200 games every month...
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junoreactor
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Re: 10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2018, 09:22:45 AM »

10,000 is a very good sample too, very solid. If you achieve 5% ROI on such sample, I can tell for sure that luck does no longer comes into play here. This is the result of real skills.
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jimmortal
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Re: 10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2018, 05:45:26 AM »

10,000 is a very good sample too, very solid. If you achieve 5% ROI on such sample, I can tell for sure that luck does no longer comes into play here. This is the result of real skills.

Τhank you Juno for your reply.

From what I have seen 'till now,with various records that I have kept,is that things changes.For example,you can bet for 5 years the draw at France National league or at Italian Serie A and win,but if you were continue to bet last year,you would have ended up with losses.I agree that 10.000 games is not a small sample,but this ROI happened in a year.What will happen in the next year,is something that worries me.

Do I need ore time or more games?Or both to ensure that 5% is the "final" ROI .

Have a nice day Juno




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junoreactor
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Re: 10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2018, 01:15:41 PM »

10 000 bets is more than enough but which line did you record? Bet365 closing line?

Did you take your data from oddsportal?
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jimmortal
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Re: 10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2018, 07:02:44 AM »

Hi Juno,

Bet365 are only 10-15% of the games and most of them are live games.Closing pinnacle line is most of the record..I know that I will have a 1% (maximum) advantage in Asian markets+bf.

Anyway,thank you very much for your answer.I am not yet sure if I need more games,I will let you know what will happen after 5-10.000 games.

Best of luck

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Chipmunk
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Re: 10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« Reply #11 on: June 06, 2018, 12:14:56 PM »



From what I have seen 'till now,with various records that I have kept,is that things changes.For example,you can bet for 5 years the draw at France National league or at Italian Serie A and win,but if you were continue to bet last year,you would have ended up with losses.

This is a quite important point for long-term betting - you can have 1 or 2 seasons of an unusual trend (eg overs/covers/favourites), which your model happens to have an aligned bias with. When the trend settles back to normal, your model still has the bias, and will lose plenty money.

The solution I've found is in multiple levels of time features - not just the usual short term form assessments, but seasonal ones too.
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jimmortal
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Re: 10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2018, 07:10:42 AM »



The solution I've found is in multiple levels of time features - not just the usual short term form assessments, but seasonal ones too.

Hello Chipmunk,

Thank you for your answer.

Can you please be more specific when you find some time.
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jamesmonkstown
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jamesmonkstown

Re: 10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2018, 09:33:56 AM »

In relation to this topic i have a question

I have a yield of 30% over 15000 bets, what i am looking for is a table that denotes the minimum decimal odds needed so as to still have a +ev

For instance i back a selection at 2.25 what is the corresponding lowest decimal price that i can still take that would show a plus ev return taking into account that overall i have yielded at 30% over 15,000 of various differentiating odds
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Alfa1234
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Re: 10.000 picks with a 5% yield
« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2018, 10:26:27 AM »

The simplest way would be to calculate your exact ROI over those bets and simply deduct that % from every odd.

Say your ROI over those 15k bets is 5% and you see a value bet with an odd of 3, you would need an odd of 2.9 to break even (3.0 -1 - 5%).  Everything above that has value.  This is too simple though, you'd be better off calculating your ROI over the different odd ranges.  Say calculate your ROI on all odds taken in the 1.1 to 1.5 range, in the 1.5 to 2.0 range etc etc and do the math that way.  It'll be more accurate.
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