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Are losing accounts limited?

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MrG
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Are losing accounts limited?

Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:50 pm

What are people's experiences with having accounts limited, even though they never withdraw and the account is a losing one? Do they find the account lasts longer?

If i was a bookmaker, and i saw that someone was arbing, but they never withdrew and kept the account in profit for the bookmaker, i would let them carry on. Wise business decision no?
DPG
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Re: Are losing accounts limited?

Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:13 pm

Recreational bookmakers are stupid but even they know that in the long run arbers will win. So, once they spot you are arbing they will limit your account. If the account is up or down does not matter. It's what you bet on that counts. Taking dropping odds leads to account limitations.
vinciguerra
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Re: Are losing accounts limited?

Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:32 am

MrG wrote: What are people's experiences with having accounts limited, even though they never withdraw and the account is a losing one? Do they find the account lasts longer?

If i was a bookmaker, and i saw that someone was arbing, but they never withdrew and kept the account in profit for the bookmaker, i would let them carry on. Wise business decision no?
you're thinking too micro on this.  big books have thousands of accounts, they're not going to go through every one looking for individual P&L's. they just limit when your account pops up when they group=-analyze which matches was bet with which accounts
Last edited by vinciguerra on Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
MrG
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Re: Are losing accounts limited?

Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:02 am

They wouldn't need to look through each account individually....a simple computer system that detects which accounts are bringing profit to them, and which accounts are not - which i assume they are doing anyway as it's a simple business practice.

From purely a business perspective, to decide to limit an account purely because of the matches they pick, and not whether the account is bringing profit to them or not seems to me quite silly on their part.

So what if someone is continually picking obvious arbs? Is the account in profit for us the bookmaker? Are they withdrawing often, or are they taking care of the account, and simply using it to do what they do, and by default we, the bookmaker, profit?

Again, from a business perspective, as a bookmaker, who would you rather limit - the account that isnt picking arbs but is taking money from us every month, or the account who is picking arbs but never withdraws and leaves us, the bookmaker in profit?...
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Re: Are losing accounts limited?

Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:55 am

You don't bet against the bookmaker. If you win it doesn't mean the bookmaker loses and if you lose it doesn't mean the bookmaker wins.
Bookmakers win or lose if the market is balanced or not. If market is balanced, bookmakers win no matter the outcome. If market ends unbalanced, bookmakers will probably lose no matter the outcome, unless they take a position.
Markets which offered arbitrage opportunities can probably end unbalanced and bookmaker could lose there, no matter if your bet won or lost. So you could lose many arbitrage bets at a specific bookmaker and you are equally making the bookmaker lose.
Anyway, in the long run your balance would probably be positive.
Last edited by ppintaluba on Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Are losing accounts limited?

Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:12 pm

MrG wrote: They wouldn't need to look through each account individually....a simple computer system that detects which accounts are bringing profit to them, and which accounts are not - which i assume they are doing anyway as it's a simple business practice.

From purely a business perspective, to decide to limit an account purely because of the matches they pick, and not whether the account is bringing profit to them or not seems to me quite silly on their part.

So what if someone is continually picking obvious arbs? Is the account in profit for us the bookmaker? Are they withdrawing often, or are they taking care of the account, and simply using it to do what they do, and by default we, the bookmaker, profit?

Again, from a business perspective, as a bookmaker, who would you rather limit - the account that isnt picking arbs but is taking money from us every month, or the account who is picking arbs but never withdraws and leaves us, the bookmaker in profit?...
You are missing the basics here.  By arbing you are betting soft lines, lines that are priced too high compared to the odds you have of winning the bets. Say you bet on something that has a 60% probability of winning at an odd of 2.  You could lose that bet 15 times in a row...but probability laws state that eventually you WILL win roughly 6000 out of 10000 bets, meaning the bookmaker will lose money and you will win money there. 

Sooner or later, you WILL start winning by betting that way, it's only a matter of time and it's simple mathematics. It's actually a very good business practise to limit those accounts while they are still losing...because you are 100% certain they'll start winning sooner or later.  Why would they wait until it actually happens? Who would you rather limit?  A guy that got lucky by placing a few bets and beat the laws of probability for a few times in a row or a guy that got very unlucky but you are 100% certain will start taking money from you if you don't limit him?

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