Live arbing

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joaqtor
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joaqtor

Live arbing
« on: August 29, 2018, 06:05:26 PM »

Hi all! Totally newbie here.

Already addicted to the forum and all the information in it.

I am just starting with arbing, and one of the challenges I found is in voided bets. I mean, I place the first bet in bookie A, everything goes ok, place the second bet in bookie B and in the process of validation the odds changed and bet gets rejected, leaving me in the worst scenario I can imagine.

This is happening to me like 1 each 4 or 5 arbing attemps. I'm thinking in adding some strategy like check if partial result of the game is the same in each bookie, for example.

Do you all face this problem when arbing?
How often?
Do you have a strategy to minimize loses when this happens? (I read a very useful thread about this in the forum)
Do you have strategies to minimize the risk for void bets to occur?

Thanks in advance.
Looking forward to read you, and continue learning.

Cheers!
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Alfa1234
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Re: Live arbing
« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2018, 06:37:30 PM »

To minimize this:

Place the team that is winning or the "under" bet first and then the 2nd bet.  The odds for the winning team and the under will always drop, while the other side will climb.  That way, even if your 2nd bet is rejected, you can still get the bet in a few seconds later often at better odds.  If a goal happens during that time, you are of course still screwed but nothing can be done about that.
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christianj
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Re: Live arbing
« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2018, 08:43:06 PM »

i wont advice to bet under first, when i started live arbing i used to bet under first and yes i was getting good percentage especially when the odds was raising for over, but at the end of every week i lost once or twice and this was huge enough to clear all my arbed percentages.

But i started betting over first, once it enters pending in the Asians then i take out the under, this is risky a little because the odd for under usually drops by 1 percent but in reality, every week i hit the over and covers more than 100 percent of what i lost in under.

my advice is to study the odd movement in your bookiie, then you can be able to minimize your lost, and try to take arbs above 4 percent so that when the under drops, you will still get something worthwhile even after you betted under last.
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joaqtor
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joaqtor

Re: Live arbing
« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2018, 07:15:15 PM »

I forgot to add that I'm arbing on Tennis.

Maybe that's why odds change so fast?

Do you recommend soccer better?
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dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: Live arbing
« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2018, 10:22:30 PM »

Successful live arbing involves voids, sweat, blood and tears, and hopefully overall profit.

If you are "just starting arbing" stick to pre-match arbs and deposit bonues , and gain a lot of experience before live arbing!!
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Re: Live arbing
« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2018, 04:49:02 PM »

I would not suggest to bet Under first. Actually, betting Under first is a terrible idea and it's one of the common mistakes made by newbies.

Yes, you should always bet softbook side first but there's an exception to this rule when betting Under in softbook side.

Bet Over (or lay Under) in Betfair (you should not use asians when betting over since you will be vulnerable in danger zone period), after your bet is matched in Betfair, bet Under in softbook. If you're lucky, you can catch a goal before you place your Under bet. Sometimes, softbook will change Under odds and leaving you with no profit (or a slight loss) but still it's better then losing your whole stake.

If you bet Under first in softbook and then bet Over, sooner or later you will be crushed by a goal which is a very unpleasant feeling.

Good luck!
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ppintaluba
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ppintaluba

Re: Live arbing
« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2018, 11:24:24 PM »

Goals in tennis?  :)
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middler
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Re: Live arbing
« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2018, 05:10:32 PM »

I would not suggest to bet Under first. Actually, betting Under first is a terrible idea and it's one of the common mistakes made by newbies.

Yes, you should always bet softbook side first but there's an exception to this rule when betting Under in softbook side.

Bet Over (or lay Under) in Betfair (you should not use asians when betting over since you will be vulnerable in danger zone period), after your bet is matched in Betfair, bet Under in softbook. If you're lucky, you can catch a goal before you place your Under bet. Sometimes, softbook will change Under odds and leaving you with no profit (or a slight loss) but still it's better then losing your whole stake.

If you bet Under first in softbook and then bet Over, sooner or later you will be crushed by a goal which is a very unpleasant feeling.

Good luck!

This is not true, and it is rather just a psychological weapon used to avoid negative results.
The truth is that in some markets, I have seen way more success taking the under odd at the soft bookie and risking to lose, compared to losing the possibility to place the bet, since the ratio between the value and the risk is positive.
This is not necessarily true for every market, but the statement is not accurate, and betting the under first has nothing to do with being a noob.
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barbero
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Re: Live arbing
« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2018, 08:32:26 PM »

I agree with middler that it should be analyzed for each market and also depends on how odds move on the particular bookies you're trying to arb. Sometimes it will be better to place the under first, sometimes not. Only experience will tell.

Another way to approach this question is to always place first the soft side, if you can identify which is the soft and which is the sharp one. Regardless of it being an over or an under.
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christianj
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Re: Live arbing
« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2018, 10:40:21 PM »

i think we are missing something because you are advising a newbie who basically wont understand all these till alot of loses.

The true remains that if you keep taking under first especially with the Softs, you will ended up lossing all alot of money than you will get from Arbing. Taking understand first if best adviced only when it is done on the side of the Asians because once it enters danger, it mean the bet must be accepted except a goal happens and that gives you chance to bet over on the soft.

If you keep taking under on the soft, Quote me for every 20 bets of under you place, you will lose 1 or more and that is 100 percent lose, clean 100 percent lose.
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middler
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Re: Live arbing
« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2018, 03:29:00 PM »

This is absolutely wrong.
It is much better to learn correctly from the start, and not to fool yourself with made up probabilities.

This is best explained with your example, although your probabilities are made up by you.

If you lose your whole balance (only at soft book, since your bet at sharp is not even accepted) 1 out of 20 times, it means on average you are losing 5% of the stake placed at the soft bookie, every time.
You barely need a 3% arb (2,06 - 2,06) to cover this cost and even make a profit in the long run. And this is only if you split your profits evenly across both sides, which is the worst case scenario.

3% arb in live events is low percentage, and very achievable in many bookies and markets, so even if your made up probability is true, it is very easy to overcome betting on unders first.
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