predicting odds that will drop

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christianj
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christianj

predicting odds that will drop
« on: September 03, 2018, 09:24:46 AM »

i was wondering if this was possibly because if it was it is far better than arbing or value betting or what ever and give huge returns.

was trying to study it using betfair, have been luck so far but afraid it is just luck.

Please can any one throw light on it and its possiblity
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dealer wins
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Re: predicting odds that will drop
« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2018, 10:16:08 AM »

I dont think there is any way to predict things like this.  Odds rise just as often as they drop, due to injury news, team changes etc
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arbetour
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Re: predicting odds that will drop
« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2018, 11:00:07 AM »

Possible. Big balls required, and extensive research.
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testez
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Re: predicting odds that will drop
« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2018, 01:56:53 AM »

something more realistic and what more people could do, is not to predict the odds drop but to use the drop against the slow and some very slow bookies. especially street books in Eastern Europe.
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Arbermac
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Re: predicting odds that will drop
« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2018, 01:50:48 PM »

Please take a look at the post I just placed today.... "Past Arber moving forward - Elo Rating System"

It might not be able to predict the way the market moves but certainly can give you the same results as you are generating better starting odds than bookmakers.

Cheers,
Andy
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1xbett
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Re: predicting odds that will drop
« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2018, 05:33:20 PM »

It's hard to do in worldwide radius, your homeleaguw is easier as you can find out news quicker than others especially if you have connections.
When I work those dropping odds, I work with tipsters. I use tipsters, bet fast before others do and when odds drop I do cashout.
That way I don't care if he wins or loses, I get few hundred bucks each pick and all I need is to be fast
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thorocska
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thorocska

Re: predicting odds that will drop
« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2018, 09:56:43 PM »

When I work those dropping odds, I work with tipsters. I use tipsters, bet fast before others do and when odds drop I do cashout.
That way I don't care if he wins or loses, I get few hundred bucks each pick and all I need is to be fast

What tipster do you advise to use?
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dealer wins
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Re: predicting odds that will drop
« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2018, 11:10:41 PM »

Basically at the mercy of tipsters, who have their own interests at heart, like all sharp people have!.  I call BS
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arbusers
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Re: predicting odds that will drop
« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2018, 06:22:11 AM »

Basically at the mercy of tipsters, who have their own interests at heart, like all sharp people have!.  I call BS

Actually 1xbett described a very wise way of operation. He is not keeping any risks but rides the wave that certain tipsters create and sell the position when the time is right.
Brilliant.

People that would like to go this way, might want to take a look at smartbet.io so they place the bets simultaneously, in less that a second after a tipster publish his picks.
https://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,4353.0.html
I know some members already use it.
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DPG
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Re: predicting odds that will drop
« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2018, 10:57:12 AM »

I can give you tips for free. Ask me about any match and I will tell you what will happen to the pre match odds.

If these tipsters were any good they would make money themselves on any of the exchanges or with pin/asians rather than sell their tips for money.
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1xbett
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Re: predicting odds that will drop
« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2018, 11:28:37 AM »

I have to be honest and say I don't understand stereotypes.
Who said those guys use Asians? Maybe they predict only lower leagues and have problems with limits?
Maybe they come from some poor country where monthy salary is 500$ and it would take them years to get to decent banks?

I agree that some of them are fluke and it's hard to rely cause they almost all, sooner or later, have bad period. But still they have been good source of income for me, especially on Bet365 which has way wider offer than Asians. To be honest, I don't use tipsters for Asians as I agree with you in point that guys who have 10% ROI there can make thousands per day and not sell for 100e a month cause I know guys paying 1000e per unit for Asian tipsters
Softbooks are different story.
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arbusers
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Re: predicting odds that will drop
« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2018, 11:31:19 AM »

I can give you tips for free. Ask me about any match and I will tell you what will happen to the pre match odds.

If these tipsters were any good they would make money themselves on any of the exchanges or with pin/asians rather than sell their tips for money.

It is not a matter of being good or bad, but rather a question do they move the line?
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DPG
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DPG

Re: predicting odds that will drop
« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2018, 11:54:05 AM »


It's fairly straight forward to find out which way the odds will move. All the information is at your finger tips. You just have to search the form of the 2 teams, injuries, suspensions and be quick to react when line ups are announced.

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TheJog87
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Re: predicting odds that will drop
« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2018, 03:43:15 PM »

Trend traders have always used among other things tipsters effective in dropping odds..., about opening a great position in a softbook, with the aim of moving the line and then not sell it manually (I mean without their software), in this book or another, but using the software of the same book, I guess the limitation will come more or less fast depending on your success.
Maybe is a more lucrative way of income than others, while the limits come. We will have to manage some account and compare its viability against pure arbitrage, and another ways...  It's interesting.
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Archi
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Archi

Re: predicting odds that will drop
« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2018, 11:27:18 AM »


I agree that some of them are fluke and it's hard to rely cause they almost all, sooner or later, have bad period. But still they have been good source of income for me, especially on Bet365 which has way wider offer than Asians. To be honest, I don't use tipsters for Asians as I agree with you in point that guys who have 10% ROI there can make thousands per day and not sell for 100e a month cause I know guys paying 1000e per unit for Asian tipsters
Softbooks are different story.

I actually never understood why would someone pay for a soft-bookie tipster. What's the point ?
Your account will get limited as fast as any arber's account and you still have to send a % of your profits towards to the tipster.
Add to this the hustle of placing the bets in seconds after you receive the tip and you get a pretty bad deal for the $$$ you pay.   
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