BetBurger | Live and Pre-game surebets
RebelBetting - Turn betting into investing

predicting odds that will drop

Make bookmakers cash cow machines
christianj
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 3
Posts: 34
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:33 pm

predicting odds that will drop

Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:24 am

i was wondering if this was possibly because if it was it is far better than arbing or value betting or what ever and give huge returns.

was trying to study it using betfair, have been luck so far but afraid it is just luck.

Please can any one throw light on it and its possiblity
dealer wins
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 43
Posts: 966
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2014 12:16 pm

Re: predicting odds that will drop

Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:16 am

I dont think there is any way to predict things like this.  Odds rise just as often as they drop, due to injury news, team changes etc
Never trust a goose!!!
arbetour
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 5
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:42 am

Re: predicting odds that will drop

Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:00 am

Possible. Big balls required, and extensive research.
testez
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 13
Posts: 153
Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:32 am

Re: predicting odds that will drop

Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:56 am

something more realistic and what more people could do, is not to predict the odds drop but to use the drop against the slow and some very slow bookies. especially street books in Eastern Europe.
Arbermac
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 9
Posts: 57
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2016 10:58 pm

Re: predicting odds that will drop

Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:50 pm

Please take a look at the post I just placed today.... "Past Arber moving forward - Elo Rating System"

It might not be able to predict the way the market moves but certainly can give you the same results as you are generating better starting odds than bookmakers.

Cheers,
Andy
1xbett
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 1
Posts: 6
Joined: Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:14 pm

Re: predicting odds that will drop

Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:33 pm

It's hard to do in worldwide radius, your homeleaguw is easier as you can find out news quicker than others especially if you have connections.
When I work those dropping odds, I work with tipsters. I use tipsters, bet fast before others do and when odds drop I do cashout.
That way I don't care if he wins or loses, I get few hundred bucks each pick and all I need is to be fast
thorocska
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 5
Posts: 76
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2014 10:48 am

Re: predicting odds that will drop

Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:56 pm

1xbett wrote: When I work those dropping odds, I work with tipsters. I use tipsters, bet fast before others do and when odds drop I do cashout.
That way I don't care if he wins or loses, I get few hundred bucks each pick and all I need is to be fast
What tipster do you advise to use?
dealer wins
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 43
Posts: 966
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2014 12:16 pm

Re: predicting odds that will drop

Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:10 pm

Basically at the mercy of tipsters, who have their own interests at heart, like all sharp people have!.  I call BS
Never trust a goose!!!
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6212
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: predicting odds that will drop

Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:22 am

dealer wins wrote: Basically at the mercy of tipsters, who have their own interests at heart, like all sharp people have!.  I call BS
Actually 1xbett described a very wise way of operation. He is not keeping any risks but rides the wave that certain tipsters create and sell the position when the time is right.
Brilliant.

People that would like to go this way, might want to take a look at smartbet.io so they place the bets simultaneously, in less that a second after a tipster publish his picks.
index.php/topic,4353.0.html
I know some members already use it.
DPG
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 14
Posts: 202
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:11 pm

Re: predicting odds that will drop

Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:57 am

I can give you tips for free. Ask me about any match and I will tell you what will happen to the pre match odds.

If these tipsters were any good they would make money themselves on any of the exchanges or with pin/asians rather than sell their tips for money.
1xbett
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 1
Posts: 6
Joined: Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:14 pm

Re: predicting odds that will drop

Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:28 am

I have to be honest and say I don't understand stereotypes.
Who said those guys use Asians? Maybe they predict only lower leagues and have problems with limits?
Maybe they come from some poor country where monthy salary is 500$ and it would take them years to get to decent banks?

I agree that some of them are fluke and it's hard to rely cause they almost all, sooner or later, have bad period. But still they have been good source of income for me, especially on Bet365 which has way wider offer than Asians. To be honest, I don't use tipsters for Asians as I agree with you in point that guys who have 10% ROI there can make thousands per day and not sell for 100e a month cause I know guys paying 1000e per unit for Asian tipsters
Softbooks are different story.
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6212
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: predicting odds that will drop

Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:31 am

DPG wrote: I can give you tips for free. Ask me about any match and I will tell you what will happen to the pre match odds.

If these tipsters were any good they would make money themselves on any of the exchanges or with pin/asians rather than sell their tips for money.
It is not a matter of being good or bad, but rather a question do they move the line?
DPG
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 14
Posts: 202
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:11 pm

Re: predicting odds that will drop

Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:54 am

It's fairly straight forward to find out which way the odds will move. All the information is at your finger tips. You just have to search the form of the 2 teams, injuries, suspensions and be quick to react when line ups are announced.
TheJog87
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 4
Posts: 89
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:28 pm

Re: predicting odds that will drop

Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:43 pm

Trend traders have always used among other things tipsters effective in dropping odds..., about opening a great position in a softbook, with the aim of moving the line and then not sell it manually (I mean without their software), in this book or another, but using the software of the same book, I guess the limitation will come more or less fast depending on your success.
Maybe is a more lucrative way of income than others, while the limits come. We will have to manage some account and compare its viability against pure arbitrage, and another ways...  It's interesting.
Archi
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Contact:
Karma: 13
Posts: 17
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2014 7:25 pm

Re: predicting odds that will drop

Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:27 am

1xbett wrote:
I agree that some of them are fluke and it's hard to rely cause they almost all, sooner or later, have bad period. But still they have been good source of income for me, especially on Bet365 which has way wider offer than Asians. To be honest, I don't use tipsters for Asians as I agree with you in point that guys who have 10% ROI there can make thousands per day and not sell for 100e a month cause I know guys paying 1000e per unit for Asian tipsters
Softbooks are different story.
I actually never understood why would someone pay for a soft-bookie tipster. What's the point ?
Your account will get limited as fast as any arber's account and you still have to send a % of your profits towards to the tipster.
Add to this the hustle of placing the bets in seconds after you receive the tip and you get a pretty bad deal for the $$$ you pay. 

Return to “Arbing, matched betting and trading talk”