Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!

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MikeSeattle
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MikeSeattle

Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« on: September 30, 2018, 05:39:36 PM »

Hi Everyone,
So I came across arbitrage trading many years ago but I never took the plunge because of the many problems that I am sure everyone is aware of, such as:
1) GETTING LIMITED! 2) Very few opportunities across major bookmakers and when they do come up, you need to respond within seconds, otherwise they go away 3) Need to create and manage lots of accounts. Also difficult for someone in the U.S. to open accounts.
4) Cash flow issues - takes a long time to cash in and rebet the money.
These are the reasons I recall but there may have been more.
The main reason was all the talk about getting limited. People suggested opening accounts in the name of wife or relatives but I was not married and did not have relatives. At the time, I basically decided that it's not worth my time to dedicate myself to this only to get limited by bookmakers and not being able to do it anymore.

However, this all changed because I NOW LIVE IN A COUNTRY WHERE BETS ARE ACCEPTED IN CASH AT LOCAL BOOKMAKERS. No need to worry about opening accounts, getting around "no U.S. customers", getting limited, etc. You basically come in, place a bet and pay in cash, then get the winnings in cash.
I've been here for about 6 months and recently placed an "uncovered bet" on France winning the FIFA World Cup. Before I placed the bet, I checked two places (within 30 seconds walking distance from each other) to see which one has better odds. It then occurred to me that arbitrage can be done here "live" without any of the problems mentioned on the forums.
In fact, I believe there is one now on Habib Nurmagomedov vs. Connor McGregor, but I am not sure as it's been a long time since I studied this.
Any general thoughts on this idea? Any flaws I am not considering?
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 05:42:12 PM by MikeSeattle » Logged
dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2018, 11:21:22 PM »

Getting limited/banned in shops maybe.  Or if its a rough country getting shot!  Otherwise fill your boots!!
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MikeSeattle
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MikeSeattle

Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 07:26:00 AM »

They don't ban/limit people at live betting places here (unless maybe for being drunk or causing a disturbance). They could care less that I placed a bet at a competitor at another location.
It's safe, just a cash society mostly.

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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2018, 09:34:24 AM »

You are describing a situation that occurs in some eastern European countries.
If shops are not limiting you, then you are free to go. Better start it now than later.
In order to save some time and get the best chances you can possibly have, you can place the bet in the shop and sell it on line to Pinnacle, Betfair and other sharp bookmakers/exchanges. You can do that with your mobile phone or a tablet that you could have it with you at any point.
In addition, it worths checking the Value Betting possibility.
Keep us informed.
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MikeSeattle
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MikeSeattle

Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2018, 10:34:58 AM »

Arbusers,
Thank you! You're right, but there's a whole world of info out there that I have to learn. For one, I don't have a good understanding of how to find arbs. I've read a lot of info and I understand in theory but I don't know how to apply it in practice. Any advice?
Second, I really don't think limit/ban will be a problem. They have an official maximum and it's way more than I would bet.
Sell online to Pinnacle, Betfair? How would I do that??? They issue a physical ticket and it's all in non-English letters...
How would I learn more about value betting? I think I understand in theory, but need training/system. For example: 10/1/2018 Padova Pescara, highest odds on Pescara (at the time of my research which was yesterday) @Betbrain 3.12, one of the local places I mentioned in my post offered 3.13. (at the time of this writing it's up to 3.168) Trivial, but it's more than the highest on football-data. Am I looking at this correctly?
« Last Edit: October 01, 2018, 10:39:54 AM by MikeSeattle » Logged
arbusers
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arbusers

Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2018, 12:27:59 PM »

I don't have a good understanding of how to find arbs. I've read a lot of info and I understand in theory but I don't know how to apply it in practice. Any advice?

Read the forum to the fullest extend. I suggest you use alert services to find the arbs, one of these that you can find in the forum would do the job. FYI, BetBurger, BetOnValue, BetSlayer, Oddstorm and RebelBetting.

Sell online to Pinnacle, Betfair? How would I do that??? They issue a physical ticket and it's all in non-English letters...

Again I suggest you read the forum. You might need to register a Betfair and Pinnacle account and then experiment with these before utilising them.

How would I learn more about value betting? I think I understand in theory, but need training/system.

Read the forum and especially the section about Value Betting.

For example: 10/1/2018 Padova Pescara, highest odds on Pescara (at the time of my research which was yesterday) @Betbrain 3.12, one of the local places I mentioned in my post offered 3.13. (at the time of this writing it's up to 3.168) Trivial, but it's more than the highest on football-data. Am I looking at this correctly?

The general direction is correct but no-one can answer this question with the data. In general you are looking for odds way higher than those that you see in mainstream bookmakers or exchanges and Pinnacle.
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christianj
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Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2018, 03:00:32 PM »

@mike, not to discourage you, but no matter what, as long as you volume of bet is high enough to be noticed, you would be banned in the shop especially if you keep winning. but of course, you it till you are banned and if you are lucky and they country has alot of competitors, you can keep trying all of them. This should allow you good source of fund for atleast 6 months or more.

if your volume is within 300 euros to 500 euro per day, i think it i can almost last for a year or more.

and the fastest way to learn to start making mistakes, start with little money and read alot.
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2018, 03:23:42 PM »

DO not put more than 200 euro for bet. Its red flag in this small countries. If you use 3 or more shops a day from different local bookies you should be ok for a long time.
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De Graaf
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De Graaf

Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2018, 04:59:22 PM »

Hello Mike,

It might occur that at the moment of payment odds will be decreased. You need to test the offerings with an actual bet in the ~amount you intend to use.
Most of those places have their own (modest, often completely asleep), risk management. Repetitive behavior and you might get flagged resulting in reduced odds (just for you) or reduced max bet.

In places I went to a couple of years back, they had an automated authorization system => if your bet is a single (not a combo, you could do tricks with this) and the bet amount is above some arbitrary amount (less than the max bet) , someone from risk department needs to authorize. That does not mean it won't get accepted, often they would accept even ridiculous prices. Since locals are not exposed to the globe via www, they don't consider these problems as their highest priority. Being bounded to physical access means they have different problems, such as an incredibly one-sided book (99% of combo premiership bets which include top six teams are for favs).

You could do this manually (at least for a proper stress-test), it took me an ~hour to go through their whole offering. You won't be doing calculations, just have pinny(or any other proper book) odds on one side and the local odds on the other, you'll calculate only when they are way off. Some of these places run as built-in coffee shops, you could do this activity while in the shop. I used to run a bike through my locals, have a seat, make the tour. In two weeks you'll get to know the employees which may open other doors for you. To my mind, what bothered me is the habit of carrying stacks of cash in your pockets, along with the tickets and I would be a target and get mugged.

Most of these places offer 500+ games per match. If you cover your bets (i did not, hence value bets), you could use softs such as 365, if you have the patience and luck to find weak spots in the derivatives of your local ( they will have some silly bets like 2 goals scored in the first half and a red card in the second). Some of these can actually be covered (or at least partially, as in polish middles). It is another avenue you could pursue.
As an example: home win and btts cover all possible results except 0:0 and 0:1, there are some very interesting exotics that you could combine. (this is a fairly silly example)

If there is some actual long-term potential in the activity, next phase would be to move from manual to automated. To my mind, it is convenient to use an agent (if you go with covering in asia), scrape their service (ask the agent) and scrape the local bookie service (if they actual have a webpage), produce some sane looking spreadsheet and voila, you have reduced the hour of staring in coupons to a max 10 min activity. (also, you would be sharper and more responsive)

best of luck
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alealeale
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alealeale

Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2018, 05:58:06 PM »

As an example: home win and btts cover all possible results except 0:0 and 0:1,
not even 0-2, 0-3 etc...
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alealeale
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alealeale

Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2018, 06:03:21 PM »

it also depends by the kind of contract that the owners have: they can earn on volume or on balance of the agency...in the second case i doubt you will last a couple of week, especially if you get a beginning winning sequence.
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2018, 07:07:27 PM »

I understand that Mike is not located in the UK and the approach that he should have for sharing should not be a UK one.
Maybe shops are softer in his country than what we believe.
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testez
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testez

Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2018, 07:12:18 PM »

can we know what country is that? or is this  a secret
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MikeSeattle
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MikeSeattle

Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2018, 07:09:51 AM »

@mike, not to discourage you, but no matter what, as long as you volume of bet is high enough to be noticed, you would be banned in the shop especially if you keep winning. but of course, you it till you are banned and if you are lucky and they country has alot of competitors, you can keep trying all of them. This should allow you good source of fund for atleast 6 months or more.

if your volume is within 300 euros to 500 euro per day, i think it i can almost last for a year or more.

and the fastest way to learn to start making mistakes, start with little money and read alot.

Christian, I am sorry but I don't quite follow you... In arbitrage, you sometimes win, sometimes lose as you cover both sides at two different bookmakers. So I wouldn't be winning all the time, eh?
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MikeSeattle
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MikeSeattle

Re: Revisiting Arbitrage Trading since I moved to a CASH society!
« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2018, 07:21:42 AM »

I understand that Mike is not located in the UK and the approach that he should have for sharing should not be a UK one.
Maybe shops are softer in his country than what we believe.

Arbusers,
I bet (pun intended) you can tell from my IP where I am located :P
It is really safe here, I am comfortable carrying any amount in cash. Two bookmakers are 1 min. walk from my house) (across from each other). I can send pictures if you'd like.

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