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RebelBetting launches value betting product today – big sale!

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RB-Simon
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Re: RebelBetting launches value betting product today – big sale!

Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:07 pm

Many good points VidaBlue. Value betting results depend on many parameters (many more than arbitrage trading). Many of those are also outside the control of the service, like the different betting strategies of the traders. We plan to give many more detailed reports in the future, explaining the strategies used and showing all bets.

Backtests doesn't predict future results but still have an important place in our toolbox, especially during development.


One important note:
VidaBlue wrote: Major points: It has some down periods. The Autosurf feature is neat. It is not transparent how value is calculated, so I just analyze each bet opportunity manually anyways. It has some rare bookmakers, I suppose scraped information, which is nice.

With the same bookmakers, it does not have anywhere near as many bet opportunities as some other services, but the price is low so it can be a nice first tool for beginners or an addition to the inventory of experienced betters, to provide some possible extra opportunities.
Any "down period" or lower number of bet opportunities is most likely because of a bug in our systems during this weekend. For some users, a lot less value bets were shown than what really existed. Anyone that experienced fewer value bets this weekend compared to Friday, send me a PM and I'll give you a few extra days.
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Re: RebelBetting launches value betting product today – big sale!

Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:33 am

That was a great post from Vidablue, thank you for this.
I believe this tool is excellent and really simple for those who want to start Value Betting. I would say that even with Autosurf it is semi automatic as still the user has to make some basic decisions.
I asked in my previous post how do you detect value in the selected value bets but really I didn't receive any real answer. So here is what I believe it is happening with this service.
Rebelbetting compares Pinnacle odds accepting that Pinnacle has the true odds and when a bookmaker goes above these odds you have a value bet.
But as the boss said several times, a 0.4-0.5% arb is not necessarily a value bet. You have to beat Pinnacle margins as well and according to my understanding only bets above 2% will contain real value and that depends largely on what Pinnacle's margins are in this particular market.
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Re: RebelBetting launches value betting product today – big sale!

Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:35 am

x-casino, yes that's the basics. Margin needs to be taken into account, but we also consider betting bias (since most sharps don’t balance their odds perfectly, they adjust their odds to players betting bias).

You also want several sources for the probabilities (true odds), that are proven to be profitable like Pinnacle. This is because even Pinnacle are sometimes clueless when they open a market, as Marco (head of sports) admits in a recent podcast :)

A proven staking strategy, like a fractional Kelly criterion with a max bet size to reduce variance, is also critical. We talk about this here: https://www.rebelbetting.com/value-betting-guide
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Re: RebelBetting launches value betting product today – big sale!

Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:16 pm

Hey Arbusers members! You only have around 10 hours left to get your exclusive ValueBetting offer8)

Sign up today 31 October (before midnight) and get the brand new ValueBetting software for only 29 Euro per month. Arbusers members like yourself will get 1 extra week for free. Don't miss out!  Check out the offer here.

/Hanna from RebelBetting
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Re: RebelBetting launches value betting product today – big sale!

Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:22 pm

See no profit here.

Testing the platform since November, after 2370 bets.


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Re: RebelBetting launches value betting product today – big sale!

Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:08 pm

Nicklas, thank you for reporting.
Could you tell us some more about the used filters, names of bookmakers etc?
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Re: RebelBetting launches value betting product today – big sale!

Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:33 pm

I am testing your tool too.

There are problems with hidden event and hidden bets.

When I remove it,they back after few minutes
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Re: RebelBetting launches value betting product today – big sale!

Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:06 am

Arbusers wrote: Nicklas, thank you for reporting.
Could you tell us some more about the used filters, names of bookmakers etc?

I applied no filters for the first 1000 bets.
After that, i excluded basketball bets and some soccer and hockey markets because they had negative yield.
After 2000 bets i make a new approach.

I upload the excel sheet, using for logging the whole history.

https://ufile.io/axxr2
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Re: RebelBetting launches value betting product today – big sale!

Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:33 am

Thank you Nicklas.
1000 bets after removing certain markets might take you a little while until you update us again. Could you please update the community after 500 bets?
In addition, you can attach your excel sheet in your posts, see ''Attachments and other options'' under the text box.
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Re: RebelBetting launches value betting product today – big sale!

Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:07 am

I will keep updating the data.

However, value bets have value despite the type of the bet.
It has nothing to do if i bet on soccer, tennis, AH, O/U , FT etc. Or applying any filters. Values bets where even before and after the filters.

Once the bet appears at ValueBetting platform it has a value. The only thing to consider is variance. Which has less effect at long term.


Attachments doesn't allow .zip or .xls extensions and the maximum size of the file is 1MB.
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Re: RebelBetting launches value betting product today – big sale!

Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:05 pm

Nicklas wrote: See no profit here.

Testing the platform since November, after 2370 bets.
May I ask what kind of settings you have? And by that, I mean Kelly, Max stake percentage, Minimum and maximum odds, Minimum and maximum value and if you have a strategy to hide bets starting after x days/only bet on value bets very close to match start etc. Please email us at support@rebelbetting and we'll compensate you, and guide you further, and hopefully steer you in the right direction.  :)

We have a lot of customers making good profit, so there is definitely value. But when value betting there will be variance.

Here are some graphs from value betting users.

The first graph below is from Lars. He started with a bankroll of $1000 and have now bet more than 4500 bets. "I started during the beta with Kelly 100% and bet all odds ranges. I was quickly down 20%. Got back up and followed the EV line but then dropped 37.5% to all time low. Realised that Kelly 100% causes huge swings. After that, I've changed my settings to pretty much what I have now. I have my funds spread on 12 bookies where most is allocated and turned over at 4-5 of them. I bet on basically everything that shows up with my filters. It's all about as much turnover as possible to get profit over time."  If you have a Facebook account you can read more here.

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The second graph is from another user. He has now placed around 2000 bets, "I realized that the best strategy that works for me is, value bets over 2,5% and under 10%                                                                                    stake sizing 50% and max stake 2%, odds above 1,20 and below 2,11(that helps me a lot to avoid big variances and reduces big downswings"

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The third graph is from another value bettor who has been betting for 75+ days. As you can see from the graph there can be quite some variance.
Value Betting Settings used:
Value: 1.5% - 10% ( used for first 3 weeks )
Odds: 1.20 - 2.50 ( used for first 3 weeks )
Value: 2.5% - 10% ( used after first 3 weeks )
Odds: 1.50 - 2.50 ( used after first 3 weeks )
Stake Sizing: 50%
Max Stake: 2%
Bank Capped @ £1250
Starting Bank: £1000
Current Bank: £2254
Profit: £1254
Highest Bank: £2254
Lowest Bank: £842
Draw Down : £670
Turnover: £35397
Bets: 1831
Winning Bets: 1014
Losing Bets: 817
Void Bets: 42
Yield: 3.55%
If you have a Facebook account you can read more here

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Nicklas
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Re: RebelBetting launches value betting product today – big sale!

Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:43 am

let me explain my settings in more detail :

Kelly: 50%
Max stake  2%
No filters for hiding bets depending on time start.

1-1000 bets:

No market filter
No value filter
No odds filter

1001-2000 bets:

Market filters:
Hockey FT only
Tennis-Soccer
No bet to other markets or sports.
No value filter
No odds filter

2000+ bets:
Hockey FT only
Tennis, odds 2.00-3.00
Soccer FT only, odds 2.00-3.00

now testing hockey filter to 3%-5% applied (FT only)

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