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Bet365 as reference (baseline) (page 2)

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bigtuna
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bigtuna

Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #15 on: November 08, 2018, 11:43:30 PM »

Agree with this, bet365 takes huge volumes of money on certain events and moves prices accordingly. In this sense it is operating like a sharp. I see on a daily bases bookies altering odds to move in line with bet365 when there are no stronger lines available I.e pinnacle.


bet365 is a great reference to make value bets, a lot of fixers put their money on bet365
when you see strange odds movemente like teams spreading from -0,5 to -4 is just becasue people are putting a lot of money on it

On prematch I agree, but I'm not so sure about live?
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Arbermac
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #16 on: November 09, 2018, 12:55:49 AM »

Majority of my bets at the minute are pre match so yes. Would be interested to know if anyone has had success in play as lots more opportunities to get a bet on and less chance of flagging up the account
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bigtuna
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #17 on: November 15, 2018, 11:21:30 AM »

On live Bet365 rarely changes odds without something happening. For example in tennis only if a point is made or a fault. So its not that the tipsters make a big difference on live. There are very rare occasions that odds move without something in game happening but i think is something bigger than tipsters. Specific markets are very chaotic and by the way if you divide bets by market or sport even my 3 year sample i think is not enough because number of bets is lower when divided by markets or sports.

Are you sure about this Wolfie? I feel like the live tipsters I've followed have moved the odds a lot. In tennis you'd see several tipsters move the odds by 0,2-0,3 on ITF. And on lower league football, you'd see them move the asian handicap by 0,25. If I bet max bet on badminton for example, they'd also cut the prices and even seen 1,4/2,7 go 1,85/1,85 with a couple of maxbets.
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #18 on: November 15, 2018, 11:47:50 AM »

I have no experience in badminton. Are you talking about Bet365 on tennis example ? On bet365 live tennis odds do not move by 0.2 , 0.3. They are very specific. For example 1.2, 1.22, 1.25, 1.28, 1.3, 1.33, 1.36, 1.4 etc. They have specific scales. If a big bet is placed every soft moves the line, it does not mean it becomes sharp. The example you made with 1.4-2.75 going to 1.85-1.85 just proves it. It means you can not use bet365 as sharp.
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bigtuna
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bigtuna

Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #19 on: November 16, 2018, 12:03:25 AM »

I have no experience in badminton. Are you talking about Bet365 on tennis example ? On bet365 live tennis odds do not move by 0.2 , 0.3. They are very specific. For example 1.2, 1.22, 1.25, 1.28, 1.3, 1.33, 1.36, 1.4 etc. They have specific scales. If a big bet is placed every soft moves the line, it does not mean it becomes sharp. The example you made with 1.4-2.75 going to 1.85-1.85 just proves it. It means you can not use bet365 as sharp.

I'm not saying that 0.2-0.3 are the increments of moves. I'm saying a lot of the tennis tipsters I follow move the odds by that much. They might have gone 2.00, 1.98, 1.96, 1.94 and so on, but ends up around 1.7-1.8 which makes it a 0.2-0.3 drop. This due to 50 people following this tipster and betting at the same time.

This is exactly the same happening at sharp bookies (although they have a slightly more sophisticated algorithm). It doesn't take much to move 1.4-2.75 to 1.85-1.85 at pinn/asian books either. So does that mean I can't use those for sharps?

If "big" money is moving a price at Bet365, there's two options:

1) Big fish. Someone that has no idea, but has lots of cash. He would have to bet enormous sums of money however, because if he is already categorised as a fish in their system, he wouldn't move the odds, as the traders would know he doesn't have a clue.

2) "Sharp" money. Usually a tipster posting somewhere and if he has enough followers to move the price, there's a good chance he knows what he's doing. Or it could also be dodgy money coming from ROW accounts, which indicates something is going on.

The above only applies to sports and leagues that are not offered by pinn/asia. My point is that you'd have a good chance of making a valuebet if you use Bet365 as a ref, because there's a much bigger chance of 2) than 1).
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #20 on: November 16, 2018, 09:22:37 AM »

If you have red in mind you will find red everyware, but this does not mean that the world is red. My data shows that in long run bet365 is no sharper than other softs, at least in sports i mentioned. If one of us finds something new about this lets keep this post updated.
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VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #21 on: November 24, 2018, 11:45:12 PM »

I have been value betting at softs for some years now by betting on the soft side of arbs. ROIs for those with more than 400 bets placed are in the range of 3-18%. Bet365 is not included. It has its own category. After placing 11.319 bets at Bet365 with a negative ROI of -0.25%, I have put this bookie on stand-by. It would have been more profitable to bet the opposite side of Bet365 arbs.

Using a softbook juggernaut such as Bet365 as a reference for value is a very interesting case.
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arbusers
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #22 on: November 25, 2018, 04:22:19 AM »

I have been value betting at softs for some years now by betting on the soft side of arbs. ROIs for those with more than 400 bets placed are in the range of 3-18%. Bet365 is not included. It has its own category. After placing 11.319 bets at Bet365 with a negative ROI of -0.25%, I have put this bookie on stand-by. It would have been more profitable to bet the opposite side of Bet365 arbs.

Using a softbook juggernaut such as Bet365 as a reference for value is a very interesting case.

This is a very interesting post.
Would you share the performance of the other bookmakers?
I believe you are correct when you say that 365 has its own category as in some markets I m noticing a different approach. But what if you segment bet365's action by markets? Do you see weak spots there?
If the ROI in Bet365 is just -0.25%, then it should be very difficult to go against them too. I would understand going against them if the ROI was -3% or more.
Thank you for this post.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #23 on: November 25, 2018, 10:40:20 AM »

This is a very interesting post.
Would you share the performance of the other bookmakers?

The results take some time to compile properly for posting, but I wrote an article a year ago for a value bet provider about my first 2 years of arbing/value. There is a table in this article with bookmaker performance (Bookmakers are listed with aliases, Book5 is Bet365, Book2 is 5dimes, Book3 and Book15 are from the Kambi group, Book7 and Book16 are local bookmakers). All bets in this table have been placed based on arbs.

https://www.blog.tradematesports.com/sports-betting-strategy/2017/9/18/arbitrage-betting-or-value-betting?rq=vida

My focus today has shifted towards value-betting mostly in shops with higher stakes, but also some value-betting on sharps on very specific markets and some botbetting at softs. Value-betting in shops seems much more profitable than on online books in a limited regime. When time permits I will update the results and share.

I believe you are correct when you say that 365 has its own category as in some markets I m noticing a different approach. But what if you segment bet365's action by markets? Do you see weak spots there?
If the ROI in Bet365 is just -0.25%, then it should be very difficult to go against them too. I would understand going against them if the ROI was -3% or more.
Thank you for this post.

Good idea, I will separate into markets and get back with updated statistics. Just to clarify, -0.25% ROI on Bet365 does not mean that the other side of the arbs holds only +0.25% ROI. This would be the case if all arbs were exactly 0%. Arbs are all higher and this adds to the ROI on the non-Bet365 side of the arbs. I don't know the average percentage of the arbs, but I have the data dumped somewhere, so it should be possible to estimate.
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #24 on: November 25, 2018, 02:35:59 PM »

I have been value betting at softs for some years now by betting on the soft side of arbs. ROIs for those with more than 400 bets placed are in the range of 3-18%. Bet365 is not included. It has its own category. After placing 11.319 bets at Bet365 with a negative ROI of -0.25%, I have put this bookie on stand-by. It would have been more profitable to bet the opposite side of Bet365 arbs.

Using a softbook juggernaut such as Bet365 as a reference for value is a very interesting case.

1.So in your sample Bet365 is sharper than sharps ?
2. But this means that in your sample bet365 is sharper than other softs only on markets that sharps have too.
3. Was your sample on live or prematch because if its on live it makes no sense to my sample, so we both would have to do a longer run.
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VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #25 on: November 25, 2018, 04:32:06 PM »

1.So in your sample Bet365 is sharper than sharps ?
2. But this means that in your sample bet365 is sharper than other softs only on markets that sharps have too.
3. Was your sample on live or prematch because if its on live it makes no sense to my sample, so we both would have to do a longer run.

1. Apparently yes. I got limited after a couple of hundred bets, betting on arbs in any markets with any counterpart (soft and sharp). Thereafter I betted on anything which was an arb with SBO or Pinnacle up to either calculated stake size or stake size defined by Bet365 max stake. Therefore state sizes were very different due to these limits. Maybe I have lost more when I have been allowed large stakes, than when Bet365 restricted large stakes.

2. Yes, if you take out the word "only" in your question. I cannot tell from this sample, how bet365 performs on markets with no presence of sharps.

3. So this is where it gets a bit blurred unfortunately. I have a short live betting adventure in the middle of the sample, which may affect the overall picture. ROI on bet365 for live betting was quite negative, but sample size is small, in the hundreds.
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