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Placing Value Bets only near Game Time?

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barnstorm
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barnstorm

Placing Value Bets only near Game Time?
« on: November 23, 2018, 06:01:43 PM »

Is it a definitive thing to only place Value Bets near Game Time? The assumption is that if you place what seems to be a Value Bet hours, or days before the game, those odds may turn out to not be very good? What is the rule of thumb? One hour or less before? 3-4 hours before okay?

Thanks!
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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: Placing Value Bets only near Game Time?
« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2018, 08:28:29 PM »

Value is value...whether it's 3 days before the game or 1 hours before the game.  You have no way to know if the odds will drift either way so in the end it will balance out.  If you are less risk averse, the closer to starting time the better.
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turbobets
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turbobets

Re: Placing Value Bets only near Game Time?
« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2018, 10:21:05 PM »

I prefer betting close to game time easier on the blood pressure, unless value to good to pass.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Placing Value Bets only near Game Time?
« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2018, 11:21:59 PM »

Yes value is value regardless of when it is found and in the end it will balance out. But it seems like everyone, if they could choose, prefers to bet close to game start leaning on high liquidity closing lines in order to "reduce risk". Reduce risk of what? Each bet in itself is normally an investment with either of two outcomes; lose your entire stake (0%) or double your stake (200%). This is the ultimate risk that we accept and it doesn't change whether we bet late or early.

As value on early bets goes as much up as it goes down, I cannot see why betting early is more risky. Maybe less "risk" means reducing large swings in your expected value (EV), but these are just numbers in a spreadsheet, and if average EV of all bets turns out to be the same in either early or late betting scheme, I cannot see lower risk with late betting.

Maybe I am just missing something obvious, but what?

I have a sensation (yes, just a sensation) that my early bets have much higher ROI than my late bets close to game start. These are for instance early bets which take advantage of very overrated opening odds. The disadvantage is that the immediate reference for value within these early lines is not as straightforward and well-proven as a high liquid closing line at Pinnacle (Pinnacle lean). I will try to crunch my own numbers, just looking at the ROI to indicate something good or bad about betting early. It could be interesting if anyone here had done some similar analyses.
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barnstorm
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barnstorm

Re: Placing Value Bets only near Game Time?
« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2018, 11:28:00 PM »

Late lines will take into account any injury updates and other personnel changes? You could get on the wrong side of that if you wager too early? Maybe this does not happen enough to wait on. Waiting and you potentially lose your value bet to a Book updating their bad line?
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VidaBlue
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Re: Placing Value Bets only near Game Time?
« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2018, 12:40:48 AM »

Late lines will take into account any injury updates and other personnel changes? You could get on the wrong side of that if you wager too early?

Say I bet early on 10 occasions where injury is involved. It is reasonable to state that there is an equal probability of injury on either team. 5 of the times it was in my favor (opposite team) and the value of my bet increased and on the other five occasions it was not and the value of my bet decreased. Is the "risk" of injury on early bets then on average a disadvantage, advantage or neither? I still don't grasp why that is a "risk" at all.
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barnstorm
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barnstorm

Re: Placing Value Bets only near Game Time?
« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2018, 02:41:44 AM »

Late lines will take into account any injury updates and other personnel changes? You could get on the wrong side of that if you wager too early?

Say I bet early on 10 occasions where injury is involved. It is reasonable to state that there is an equal probability of injury on either team. 5 of the times it was in my favor (opposite team) and the value of my bet increased and on the other five occasions it was not and the value of my bet decreased. Is the "risk" of injury on early bets then on average a disadvantage, advantage or neither? I still don't grasp why that is a "risk" at all.

Yes, I see your point that chances are if you bet early, the line will move with you half the time and against you half the time. So, I guess it's a wash and you grab the value when you can.
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Yngwie/Sawyer

Re: Placing Value Bets only near Game Time?
« Reply #7 on: November 26, 2018, 07:59:22 AM »

Late is better. More reliable.
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jefferyyang
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jefferyyang

Re: Placing Value Bets only near Game Time?
« Reply #8 on: December 18, 2018, 08:28:41 PM »

Late is better. More reliable.

When you say late, how late may I ask? 1 hour? 30 mins? or minutes to kickoff?

Thanks
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NXV
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NXV

Re: Placing Value Bets only near Game Time?
« Reply #9 on: December 18, 2018, 09:23:03 PM »

grab any value you can get. doesn't matter if it is an early line or even live. the only tricky lart is to evaluate when it is actually value and how sure you are about that. If you are unsure about that if you can trust the early lines, use a similar approach like Pinnacle: lower stakes for early lines, higher stakes near closing line.
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