Pinnacle with conflicting odds

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bigtuna
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bigtuna

Pinnacle with conflicting odds
« on: January 18, 2019, 04:47:08 AM »

Hey guys,

I've noticed this situation a lot the recent days. Pinnacle offering widely different odds on the same outcomes on asian handicap and 1X2.

In this situation they are offering 1.05 / 7.67 on +0.5. That translates to 12,04% probability for away win. At the same time they have odds 9.94 on the away win 1X2. That's a massive 119.67% valuebet.

Anyone noticed the same? Seems weird.
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barbero
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Re: Pinnacle with conflicting odds
« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2019, 05:12:51 AM »

That translates to 12,04% probability for away win.

I believe this assumption is wrong: juice isn't necessarily distributed equally, for a number of reasons.

"True odds" for that 1.05 / 7.67 might well be 1.111111 / 10 and there is no value in the 9.94.
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bigtuna
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Re: Pinnacle with conflicting odds
« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2019, 05:31:22 AM »

Good point, but wouldn't that mean it's not possible to use odds for reference on valuebetting? If you don't know how the juice is distributed, even surebets could be negative value.
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barbero
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Re: Pinnacle with conflicting odds
« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2019, 06:01:13 AM »

Absolutely true. It looks to me like a very risky approach, but if you want to be optimistic about it you could expect odds to be equally distributed on average... Definitely not a good idea when you have conflicting odds in your reference bookmaker though, like in this case.
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