Pinnacle live betting

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borgosh
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borgosh

Pinnacle live betting
« on: February 05, 2019, 11:33:21 AM »

Hi everyone! :)

In the last couple of weeks i'm experiencing a strange thing with pinnacle.

I'm value betting on tennis in live and i'm following pinnacle as the sharp lines for a long time (years) and until now it was the righ choice.
In the last few weeks i'm not succeeding at all..and started to review the problem. I started to arb between soft book vs pinnacle, and i experienced that after a longer run too the pinnacle is the side where the money is mooving. The odds were between 1.2-8 , and a couple of hundred bets were placed. Most of the times the arbs were above 1.5%.
Even between odds 1.5-4 with good arbs seems that pinnacle was the ,,soft'' side.

Any opinions? anyone who met with similar things?
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AlexNotman1
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AlexNotman1

Re: Pinnacle live betting
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2019, 11:57:01 AM »

Hi everyone! :)

In the last couple of weeks i'm experiencing a strange thing with pinnacle.

I'm value betting on tennis in live and i'm following pinnacle as the sharp lines for a long time (years) and until now it was the righ choice.
In the last few weeks i'm not succeeding at all..and started to review the problem. I started to arb between soft book vs pinnacle, and i experienced that after a longer run too the pinnacle is the side where the money is mooving. The odds were between 1.2-8 , and a couple of hundred bets were placed. Most of the times the arbs were above 1.5%.
Even between odds 1.5-4 with good arbs seems that pinnacle was the ,,soft'' side.

Any opinions? anyone who met with similar things?

Variance. 1.2-8? What was the average, 3-4? Do you know how bad variance can be even with evens, not talking about higher odds? Some time ago I was consistently taking odds around evens with 3% edge in average. Didn't make a penny for 900 bets, more - I was losing a bit. After that recovered quickly but if you take higher odds in average you can expect longer streaks of course. Couple of hundred is nothing.
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cristi13
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cristi13

Re: Pinnacle live betting
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2019, 12:52:49 PM »

Past 2 months were like this for me, last month was my worst ever, completely in the negative. I'm back to arbing for a while cause something doesn't look good.
It's true it's not a high sample, but many of these should have been 10-20% yield, so variance cannot explain it.
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borgosh
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borgosh

Re: Pinnacle live betting
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2019, 01:30:25 PM »

Past 2 months were like this for me, last month was my worst ever, completely in the negative. I'm back to arbing for a while cause something doesn't look good.
It's true it's not a high sample, but many of these should have been 10-20% yield, so variance cannot explain it.


After name i'm just guessing, but are you from Romania too?
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cristi13
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cristi13

Re: Pinnacle live betting
« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2019, 10:04:04 PM »

Past 2 months were like this for me, last month was my worst ever, completely in the negative. I'm back to arbing for a while cause something doesn't look good.
It's true it's not a high sample, but many of these should have been 10-20% yield, so variance cannot explain it.


After name i'm just guessing, but are you from Romania too?

correct
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bigtuna
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bigtuna

Re: Pinnacle live betting
« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2019, 02:20:54 AM »

You must've been unlucky.

January was one of the best months using Pinn as tennis reference.
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galt88
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galt88

Re: Pinnacle live betting
« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2019, 10:31:48 AM »

I don`t think he is unlucky , I had the same bad result on live tennis, comparing soft bookies odds to pinnacle.
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Pinnacle live betting
« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2019, 10:51:23 AM »

You yourself are contributing to pinnacle not being sharp. Since many arbers have moved to value betting vs pinnacle, they are not shaping pinnacle odds anymore resulting in pinnacle with softer odds.
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borgosh
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borgosh

Re: Pinnacle live betting
« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2019, 12:16:04 PM »

You yourself are contributing to pinnacle not being sharp. Since many arbers have moved to value betting vs pinnacle, they are not shaping pinnacle odds anymore resulting in pinnacle with softer odds.


I felt that the pinnacle odds are not so sharp on tennis in the present, but this might be one of the reasons, if they are really not as sharp as in the past
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kustef
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kustef

Re: Pinnacle live betting
« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2019, 01:40:37 PM »

You yourself are contributing to pinnacle not being sharp. Since many arbers have moved to value betting vs pinnacle, they are not shaping pinnacle odds anymore resulting in pinnacle with softer odds.
so you think that if arbitrage players will not use pinnacle to cover their arbs Pinnacle odds will not have sharp odds ?
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Pinnacle live betting
« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2019, 01:56:23 PM »

so you think that if arbitrage players will not use pinnacle to cover their arbs Pinnacle odds will not have sharp odds ?

Not as sharp as before. Do not underestimate arbers ability to move the line. Since everyone before was arbing soft vs pinnacle, pinnacle was a kind of average, fair odds of all bookies market. Now that some of biggest players moved to value betting vs piny, all their contribution to pinnacle sharpening is gone.
If you see arbitrage data till 2017, you were always losing on pinnacle side long term. Cant say the same for 2018-2019.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2019, 02:10:14 PM by Wolfie » Logged
bigtuna
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bigtuna

Re: Pinnacle live betting
« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2019, 10:39:28 PM »

so you think that if arbitrage players will not use pinnacle to cover their arbs Pinnacle odds will not have sharp odds ?

Not as sharp as before. Do not underestimate arbers ability to move the line. Since everyone before was arbing soft vs pinnacle, pinnacle was a kind of average, fair odds of all bookies market. Now that some of biggest players moved to value betting vs piny, all their contribution to pinnacle sharpening is gone.
If you see arbitrage data till 2017, you were always losing on pinnacle side long term. Cant say the same for 2018-2019.

Do you have any data on this? I'm not convinced as I have excellent results from 2018-2019.
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Pinnacle live betting
« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2019, 08:36:01 AM »

so you think that if arbitrage players will not use pinnacle to cover their arbs Pinnacle odds will not have sharp odds ?

Not as sharp as before. Do not underestimate arbers ability to move the line. Since everyone before was arbing soft vs pinnacle, pinnacle was a kind of average, fair odds of all bookies market. Now that some of biggest players moved to value betting vs piny, all their contribution to pinnacle sharpening is gone.
If you see arbitrage data till 2017, you were always losing on pinnacle side long term. Cant say the same for 2018-2019.

Do you have any data on this? I'm not convinced as I have excellent results from 2018-2019.

Yes i agree but you would also win in pinnacle long run. So the fact that in 2018-2019 you would have made more money with arbitrage doesn't mean you cant have made money value betting. Because you take for granted you lose at one side and win at another, in long run.
It depends of bookies you use too. If you are exploiting some local bookie than is a complete other story.
Truth is i have 1 year and 7 months without making a deposit at pinnacle, because i am winning, not to much but i am winning.
And this never happened before 2017, i was consistently losing on pinnacle.
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borgosh
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borgosh

Re: Pinnacle live betting
« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2019, 10:05:38 AM »

so you think that if arbitrage players will not use pinnacle to cover their arbs Pinnacle odds will not have sharp odds ?

Not as sharp as before. Do not underestimate arbers ability to move the line. Since everyone before was arbing soft vs pinnacle, pinnacle was a kind of average, fair odds of all bookies market. Now that some of biggest players moved to value betting vs piny, all their contribution to pinnacle sharpening is gone.
If you see arbitrage data till 2017, you were always losing on pinnacle side long term. Cant say the same for 2018-2019.

Do you have any data on this? I'm not convinced as I have excellent results from 2018-2019.


Bigtuna, you are talking about tennis live value betting only, do you?
Because in this topic i have interrests only this way :D
« Last Edit: February 07, 2019, 11:08:35 AM by borgosh » Logged
bigtuna
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bigtuna

Re: Pinnacle live betting
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2019, 01:20:43 PM »

so you think that if arbitrage players will not use pinnacle to cover their arbs Pinnacle odds will not have sharp odds ?

Not as sharp as before. Do not underestimate arbers ability to move the line. Since everyone before was arbing soft vs pinnacle, pinnacle was a kind of average, fair odds of all bookies market. Now that some of biggest players moved to value betting vs piny, all their contribution to pinnacle sharpening is gone.
If you see arbitrage data till 2017, you were always losing on pinnacle side long term. Cant say the same for 2018-2019.

Do you have any data on this? I'm not convinced as I have excellent results from 2018-2019.

Yes i agree but you would also win in pinnacle long run. So the fact that in 2018-2019 you would have made more money with arbitrage doesn't mean you cant have made money value betting. Because you take for granted you lose at one side and win at another, in long run.
It depends of bookies you use too. If you are exploiting some local bookie than is a complete other story.
Truth is i have 1 year and 7 months without making a deposit at pinnacle, because i am winning, not to much but i am winning.
And this never happened before 2017, i was consistently losing on pinnacle.

So you're saying there's value on both Pinnacle and the soft bookmaker?

If you're winning on Pinnacle and you believe it's because you are taking value, you should just take max stakes at Pinnacle. That would be a money machine, as you'd never get limited or shut down.
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