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Theoretical measurement of Valuebets

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Shawn2k
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Shawn2k

Theoretical measurement of Valuebets
« on: February 08, 2019, 10:06:20 AM »

Hi,

I've got some Excel sheets, and trying to find the theoretical value longterm, which should be a decent measurement if Pinnacle's juice free closing line are close to the truth.

Let's say we got thousand bets. To find value, we should first find value of each bet. My thinking is that we have to find a number, or factor, for each bet. Let's say we got a few bets like these:
* We got 2,20 vs Pinnacle 2,10 (again, juicefree). This would give us 2,20/2,10 = 1,0476
* We got 3,95 vs Pinnacle 4,20 - Gives us 3,95/4,20 = 0,9405

To find total value, we should add these factors and divide on total number of bets. In this example; 1,0476 + 0,9405 = 1,988 / 2 = 0,994

In this example our total value is negative. 99,4% is what we should expect to get from our bets.

Do anyone think this is the wrong way to look at it, our should it work as measurement over large samples?


Any thoughts appreciated,
Shawn
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pythonic
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pythonic

Re: Theoretical measurement of Valuebets
« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2019, 10:23:01 AM »

That's right when the stakes are the same.
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Shawn2k
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Shawn2k

Re: Theoretical measurement of Valuebets
« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2019, 11:35:48 AM »

Yes, thanks, forgot to write that. This is with flat staking.
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cristi13
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Re: Theoretical measurement of Valuebets
« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2019, 02:05:41 PM »

That is a correct.
Another simple way is to use a bet calculator and put pinnacle's line for both sides, then input total stake 100. The resulting stake for each bet is the winning chance.
Example: Team A 1.943, Team B 1.90 would result in 49.44% for Team A, 50.56% for Team B. Assuming you found Team B at 2.10, the yield is 50.56 x 2.1 = 106.17% yield.
Take this with a grain of salt and keep in mind this is all theoretical and Pinnacle might not be sharp in all markets. In my example the juice is relatively high, you might want to look at other sharps too and factor in their price.
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Shawn2k
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Shawn2k

Re: Theoretical measurement of Valuebets
« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2019, 11:45:16 PM »

I agree with you. The ideal thing would be having Betfair's closing line I guess, but as far as I know there is no tracking of this?
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cristi13
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Re: Theoretical measurement of Valuebets
« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2019, 05:25:50 AM »

I agree with you. The ideal thing would be having Betfair's closing line I guess, but as far as I know there is no tracking of this?

Closing line is of no importance as you place the bet before the line is closing.
Make it simple, like beating pinnacle's line with juice in markets with good limits.
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Shawn2k
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Shawn2k

Re: Theoretical measurement of Valuebets
« Reply #6 on: February 11, 2019, 02:05:16 PM »

Yeah, but what if you're betting at the asians or exchanges? Not easy to beat Pinnacle juicefree line at that exact moment....  ;)
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cristi13
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Re: Theoretical measurement of Valuebets
« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2019, 08:21:53 PM »

Yeah, but what if you're betting at the asians or exchanges? Not easy to beat Pinnacle juicefree line at that exact moment....  ;)

I don't claim to know how to beat sharps, but i'm pretty sure that's not the way.
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