Bet365 move their lines quicker in the big leagues, but you will find valuebets there.
I'm also from poker. As you probably know a breakeven (and negative) stretch for 100K hands happends even for very good (i.e +5bb\100 hands) players... Patience is extremely important.
Currently I can't take valuebets on Bet365 because software I'm using is having issues getting the odds from them. I'm willing to try other valuebet softwares, anything you would recommend?
Agree with the poker stuff, same as here I guess, just gotta put in the volume.
I'm curious, and sorry to go a bit off-topic, but what made you guys move from poker to betting? Is poker too hard nowadays?
Everything is getting harder nowadays, there's so much free information on the internet, everyone learns fast. I was never a poker professional tho, still play it from time to time.
WARNING: Long post ahead
So after getting a few hundred more bets in, I tried to analyze my valuebetting a bit. I found some really really interesting stuff. Overall results first:
https://imgur.com/a/WBrpIGCFlat stakes, 3€
Number of bets: 1286
Profit: +8,63€
EV (at the time of bet): 243,08€
EV (vs closing price): 202,17€
Average valuebet %: 5,49% (6,46% at the time of bet)
Average odds: 2,16
EV goes up, profit goes sideways. Over 60 units below expected value.
So after this I checked a lot of things. Won't post all the graphs, only the most interesting ones.
Results by bookies (only approximates, since I was only checking the graphs):
Bet365: +57€, 142 bets. I only placed bets with Bet365 at the start, because as I already said, I stopped getting valuebets for them quickly because of some bug in software. Hope it gets fixed soon.
Betfair sportsbook: -12€, 280 bets
Coral: -20€, 115 bets
Partypoker (BWIN clone): -5€, 149 bets
Unibet: +60€, 371 bets
WilliamHill: -70€, 229 bets
Still fairly small samples, the only thing that's interesting is -70€ at WilliamHill, EV is at ~50€ so that's a 40 unit difference between result and EV. Anyone else losing at WilliamHill? That seems a lot for 1 bookie but lets just say it's variance for now, I find it hard to believe that WilliamHill is sharper than Pinnacle.
Results by sports;
Basketball: -5€, 472 bets
Hockey: 0, 262 bets
Soccer: +60€, 412 bets
Tennis: -45€, 133 bets
Not much to see from here, but after I filtered them by different odds and different valuebet %, there were some obvious patterns. More on that in a bit, now lets see some graphs.
Overall graph sorted by odds from smallest to largest:
https://imgur.com/aCyouCkThe point where it stops following EV is around odds of 1.91
<1.91 odds
https://imgur.com/ujy1kAd>=1.91 odds
https://imgur.com/a/fWzwAyfPretty obvious, right? But it doesn't make sense, a value bet is a value bet, no matter the odds. Someone else posted his excel sheet with over 2000 bets ( he is also breakeven ) and I looked a bit into it, it's completely different. He does better as odds go higher. We're not using the same software though, maybe there is something to it? Is it still only variance?
Then I started filtering by valuebet %. Sorted by valuebet % from higher to lower:
https://imgur.com/GJVg79PAnd again, there's a point where result line starts tanking. It happens at around 5%.
I ended up using 5,4% valuebets as my cut-off point as results were a bit more clear than just rounding it at 5%. Probably doesn't matter too much though.
Only 5,4%+ valuebets:
https://imgur.com/fNuvkIc0-5,4% valuebets:
https://imgur.com/wjYiNlt<1.91 odds, >5,4% valuebets
https://imgur.com/ROSKv4N>=1.91 odds, >5,4% valuebets
https://imgur.com/FioNOi6<1.91 odds, <=5,4% valuebets
https://imgur.com/sZtfFAu>=1.91 odds, <5,4% valuebets
https://imgur.com/pO0LLVQOut of those valuebets below 5,4%, average valuebet is 4,3%. I still consider that pretty high, yet I am getting absolutely smashed by them. I can't explain that one.
So after this I went back to check the results for each sport/bookie, and it was mostly the same thing happening. Above 5,4% - winning, below - losing. Won't post graphs since this post is already way too long. If anyone actually read through all of that, congrats.
From now on, I'm only gonna bet on valuebets which are higher than 5,4% and report back after I get a decent sample. Still gonna take all odds up to 3. That means less bets, so to compensate I'll add a few more bookmakers, any suggestions which one?
TLDR: Valuebets above 5,4% are winning a lot, valuebets below 5,4% are losing a lot. Lower odds seem to work better than higher odds.
Thanks for reading, feel free to ask any questions.
EDIT: Seems like I'm too dumb to directly post pictures, so just links for now.