Are tennis favorites winning less?

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turbobets
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turbobets

Are tennis favorites winning less?
« on: February 28, 2019, 01:01:52 AM »

I calculated the following win percents using data from tennis-data.co.uk

WTA
2010 - 71.7%
2011 - 71.0%
2012 - 70.4%
2013 - 70.8%
2014 - 68.8%
2015 - 68.1%
2016 - 68.0%
2017 - 66.5%
2018 - 67.9%

ATP
2010 - 69.8%
2011 - 71.3%
2012 - 71.0%
2013 - 68.6%
2014 - 70.2%
2015 - 70.7%
2016 - 69.3%
2017 - 66.7%
2018 - 66.6%

ATP Grand Slam
2010 - 79.8%
2011 - 79.7%
2012 - 78.8%
2013 - 78.9%
2014 - 76.3%
2015 - 79.1%
2016 - 81.3%
2017 - 77.3%
2018 - 77.7%

Notice the large drop off by favorites during the last 2 years. Has anybody calculated similar results or do you think the data or my math is off?
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vinciguerra
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Re: Are tennis favorites winning less?
« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2019, 01:24:08 AM »

how do you define favourites?
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turbobets
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Re: Are tennis favorites winning less?
« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2019, 03:35:30 AM »

how do you define favourites?

I used pinny betting odds.
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Wolfie
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Re: Are tennis favorites winning less?
« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2019, 08:25:13 AM »

A is a favorite if A odds < B odds ? Did you use this criterion ?
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Archi
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Re: Are tennis favorites winning less?
« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2019, 08:43:08 AM »

I think it's a mix of the tour getting more and more competitive and the odds becoming sharper.

If you we betting back in the days you'd remember when Federer, Nadal, Djokovic sometimes even Murray were being priced <1.1 sometimes <1.05 in smaller tournaments (ATP500) which almost never happens today albeit Federer isn't the player who used to be.

Assuming your math is correct, take the difference between the average first 3 years and the last 3 years.
For WTA it's - 3.57%
For ATP it's - 3.17%
For ATP Grand Slam it's - 0.67%

I think we've seen a correction in the lower ranked tournament as the motivation/commitment factor plays a huge role in these events.

It would be interesting to see what the outcome is if you separate ATP 250+500, ATP1000 and ATP Grand Slam.

Also what odds did you consider as favorite ? <1.5 ? <1.7 ?







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kapetan1122
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Re: Are tennis favorites winning less?
« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2019, 09:46:57 AM »

You need to know that favourites are getting older,also Djokovic,Wawrinka,Nadal and few others had big problems with injuries and had lot of losses in opening rounds so we need to take this in consideration.
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M@chibist
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Re: Are tennis favorites winning less?
« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2019, 10:04:09 AM »

Atp tour is a mess last year or two with big four exiting their prime and injuries starting to hit top players resulting in many "surprise" wins.
It is very competitive sport where technology of equipment and physical preperation made to another level. To be a top guy in this game you need to be a machine physically and mentally ill person to push yourself day after day.
People will only start to appreciate big four or three when this next generation steps on and show that achivement that these guys made where abnormal.
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vinciguerra
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vinciguerra

Re: Are tennis favorites winning less?
« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2019, 11:05:08 AM »

A is a favorite if A odds < B odds ? Did you use this criterion ?

If so, from a betting perspective it would be interesting if favourites would win less but the odds didn't account for that; nothing in your analysis suggest this though. so what exactly is the point?
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Alfa1234
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Re: Are tennis favorites winning less?
« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2019, 12:34:07 PM »

Did you calculate the average odd for the favourites and dogs in this analysis as well?  Otherwise it's meaningless as the dog odd could have dropped by a similar %.
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Chipmunk
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Re: Are tennis favorites winning less?
« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2019, 04:49:40 PM »

Avg fav odds per year:
 
2006 1.472
2007 1.462
2008 1.468
2009 1.482
2010 1.499
2011 1.493
2012 1.468
2013 1.479
2014 1.445
2015 1.450
2016 1.473
2017 1.483
2018 1.533
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turbobets
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turbobets

Re: Are tennis favorites winning less?
« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2019, 08:39:29 PM »

A is a favorite if A odds < B odds ? Did you use this criterion ?

Yes that is what I did.
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turbobets
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Re: Are tennis favorites winning less?
« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2019, 08:50:09 PM »

Did you calculate the average odd for the favourites and dogs in this analysis as well?  Otherwise it's meaningless as the dog odd could have dropped by a similar %.

No I did not something to consider though.
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turbobets
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Re: Are tennis favorites winning less?
« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2019, 09:24:32 PM »

Avg fav odds per year:
 
2006 1.472
2007 1.462
2008 1.468
2009 1.482
2010 1.499
2011 1.493
2012 1.468
2013 1.479
2014 1.445
2015 1.450
2016 1.473
2017 1.483
2018 1.533

Thanks chipmunk so it looks like the odds have adjusted accordingly.
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Are tennis favorites winning less?
« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2019, 09:32:46 AM »

The primary factor is because favorite players of 2010 are not the same in 2018 if you check the names and stats.
Second factor is pinnacle getting softer.
In general i think its just noise because it is not a big enough difference to suspect value.
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