# Are tennis favorites winning less?

Pages: [1]
 Author Topic: Are tennis favorites winning less?  (Read 2020 times)
turbobets
Gaining experience

Karma: 9
Posts: 63

« on: February 28, 2019, 01:01:52 AM »
0

I calculated the following win percents using data from tennis-data.co.uk

WTA
2010 - 71.7%
2011 - 71.0%
2012 - 70.4%
2013 - 70.8%
2014 - 68.8%
2015 - 68.1%
2016 - 68.0%
2017 - 66.5%
2018 - 67.9%

ATP
2010 - 69.8%
2011 - 71.3%
2012 - 71.0%
2013 - 68.6%
2014 - 70.2%
2015 - 70.7%
2016 - 69.3%
2017 - 66.7%
2018 - 66.6%

ATP Grand Slam
2010 - 79.8%
2011 - 79.7%
2012 - 78.8%
2013 - 78.9%
2014 - 76.3%
2015 - 79.1%
2016 - 81.3%
2017 - 77.3%
2018 - 77.7%

Notice the large drop off by favorites during the last 2 years. Has anybody calculated similar results or do you think the data or my math is off?
 Logged
vinciguerra
Has experience

Karma: 16
Posts: 232

« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2019, 01:24:08 AM »
0

how do you define favourites?
 Logged
turbobets
Gaining experience

Karma: 9
Posts: 63

« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2019, 03:35:30 AM »
0

how do you define favourites?

I used pinny betting odds.
 Logged
Wolfie
Pro

Karma: 40
Posts: 509

« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2019, 08:25:13 AM »
0

A is a favorite if A odds < B odds ? Did you use this criterion ?
 Logged
Archi
Gaining experience

Karma: 12
Posts: 18

« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2019, 08:43:08 AM »
0

I think it's a mix of the tour getting more and more competitive and the odds becoming sharper.

If you we betting back in the days you'd remember when Federer, Nadal, Djokovic sometimes even Murray were being priced <1.1 sometimes <1.05 in smaller tournaments (ATP500) which almost never happens today albeit Federer isn't the player who used to be.

Assuming your math is correct, take the difference between the average first 3 years and the last 3 years.
For WTA it's - 3.57%
For ATP it's - 3.17%
For ATP Grand Slam it's - 0.67%

I think we've seen a correction in the lower ranked tournament as the motivation/commitment factor plays a huge role in these events.

It would be interesting to see what the outcome is if you separate ATP 250+500, ATP1000 and ATP Grand Slam.

Also what odds did you consider as favorite ? <1.5 ? <1.7 ?

 Logged
kapetan1122
To become a Pro

Karma: 37
Posts: 331

« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2019, 09:46:57 AM »
0

You need to know that favourites are getting older,also Djokovic,Wawrinka,Nadal and few others had big problems with injuries and had lot of losses in opening rounds so we need to take this in consideration.
 Logged
M@chibist
Gaining experience

Karma: 0
Posts: 25

« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2019, 10:04:09 AM »
0

Atp tour is a mess last year or two with big four exiting their prime and injuries starting to hit top players resulting in many "surprise" wins.
It is very competitive sport where technology of equipment and physical preperation made to another level. To be a top guy in this game you need to be a machine physically and mentally ill person to push yourself day after day.
People will only start to appreciate big four or three when this next generation steps on and show that achivement that these guys made where abnormal.
 Logged
vinciguerra
Has experience

Karma: 16
Posts: 232

« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2019, 11:05:08 AM »
0

A is a favorite if A odds < B odds ? Did you use this criterion ?

If so, from a betting perspective it would be interesting if favourites would win less but the odds didn't account for that; nothing in your analysis suggest this though. so what exactly is the point?
 Logged
Alfa1234
Totally Pro

Karma: 59
Posts: 1003

« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2019, 12:34:07 PM »
0

Did you calculate the average odd for the favourites and dogs in this analysis as well?  Otherwise it's meaningless as the dog odd could have dropped by a similar %.
 Logged
Chipmunk
Gaining experience

Karma: 6
Posts: 90

« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2019, 04:49:40 PM »
0

Avg fav odds per year:

2006 1.472
2007 1.462
2008 1.468
2009 1.482
2010 1.499
2011 1.493
2012 1.468
2013 1.479
2014 1.445
2015 1.450
2016 1.473
2017 1.483
2018 1.533
 Logged
turbobets
Gaining experience

Karma: 9
Posts: 63

« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2019, 08:39:29 PM »
0

A is a favorite if A odds < B odds ? Did you use this criterion ?

Yes that is what I did.
 Logged
turbobets
Gaining experience

Karma: 9
Posts: 63

« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2019, 08:50:09 PM »
0

Did you calculate the average odd for the favourites and dogs in this analysis as well?  Otherwise it's meaningless as the dog odd could have dropped by a similar %.

No I did not something to consider though.
 Logged
turbobets
Gaining experience

Karma: 9
Posts: 63

« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2019, 09:24:32 PM »
0

Avg fav odds per year:

2006 1.472
2007 1.462
2008 1.468
2009 1.482
2010 1.499
2011 1.493
2012 1.468
2013 1.479
2014 1.445
2015 1.450
2016 1.473
2017 1.483
2018 1.533

Thanks chipmunk so it looks like the odds have adjusted accordingly.
 Logged
Wolfie
Pro

Karma: 40
Posts: 509

« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2019, 09:32:46 AM »
0

The primary factor is because favorite players of 2010 are not the same in 2018 if you check the names and stats.
Second factor is pinnacle getting softer.
In general i think its just noise because it is not a big enough difference to suspect value.
 Logged
 Pages: [1]

### Related Topics

Subject / Started by Replies Last post
10 Replies
3994 Views
January 07, 2015, 07:09:03 AM
by Alfons
1 Replies
4355 Views
January 05, 2013, 02:32:45 AM
by BOOYAKA
3 Replies
2797 Views
September 04, 2014, 03:25:53 PM
by ppintaluba
90 Replies
19541 Views
October 24, 2015, 08:33:46 AM
by raizzak
3 Replies
3312 Views
April 15, 2015, 08:50:37 PM
by fuzzler
22 Replies
7289 Views
April 01, 2015, 09:58:48 AM
by tunesquad
6 Replies
4614 Views
April 20, 2015, 12:27:38 AM
by qbet
0 Replies
3136 Views
October 14, 2015, 11:36:53 PM
by w62upr
5 Replies
2226 Views
November 10, 2016, 09:43:57 PM
by Zizou79
22 Replies
5174 Views
February 16, 2017, 07:02:07 PM
by rogerf97
5 Replies
2476 Views
February 17, 2017, 02:50:14 PM
by TZ
4 Replies
2637 Views
May 30, 2018, 12:30:01 AM
by bookieslayer
4 Replies
1075 Views
April 25, 2021, 12:05:36 PM
by vinciguerra
6 Replies
544 Views
May 30, 2021, 05:53:05 PM
by Rien2002
3 Replies
656 Views
June 01, 2021, 08:01:59 PM
by ex-hft
2 Replies
614 Views
June 22, 2021, 09:47:19 AM
by arb12