Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers

Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers  (Read 1629 times)
Shawn2k
Has experience
**

Karma: 3
Posts: 101


View Profile

Shawn2k

Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« on: March 05, 2019, 09:44:29 AM »

Hi,

Does anyone know about an easy tool to calculate X bets with Y value? I'm talking about the well known theory "Law of big numbers".

If we have 5% EV at 1000 bets (This is just an example), I want to see chances for the different results. Guess this also is interesting for others than me. This is to see how variance can play a big role short term, while we obviously will meet EV at some point.

Could make something in Excel, but saving time would be great!
« Last Edit: March 05, 2019, 10:03:28 AM by Shawn2k » Logged
Chipmunk
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 5
Posts: 90


View Profile

Chipmunk

Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2019, 10:49:51 AM »

You'll need the odds and probabilities also, not just EV.

Also worth considering the effects of bankroll growth.
Logged
Shawn2k
Has experience
**

Karma: 3
Posts: 101


View Profile

Shawn2k

Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2019, 11:59:58 AM »

You'll need the odds and probabilities also, not just EV.

Also worth considering the effects of bankroll growth.

Yes, but could use average odds - Probability should then be: (1 / Avg. odds) * EV.

Anyway... that's if I do it myself, I'm looking for any kind of tool just giving me the chance to write 2-3 numbers down, then it fix the rest..  :)
« Last Edit: March 05, 2019, 12:58:10 PM by Shawn2k » Logged
Shawn2k
Has experience
**

Karma: 3
Posts: 101


View Profile

Shawn2k

Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2019, 01:26:48 PM »

Anyone?

What I'm looking for is a tool that can tell things like this;

* Chance of being down after 3000 bets with average odds 3,25 & 3% edge\EV.
* Chance of being down after 1000 bets with average odds 2,52 & 5% edge\EV.

Yes, can do some work myself, but would have been really great if anyone had some info!
Logged
kefalas68
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 3
Posts: 57


View Profile

kefalas68

Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2019, 03:37:53 PM »

Eventhough i am good at maths i dont seem to understand fully what you are looking for therefore i am unable to help you now. Can you be a bit more specific?
Logged
turbobets
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 8
Posts: 54


View Profile

turbobets

Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2019, 04:20:31 AM »

Maybe this will help sportsbettingcalcs.com/betting-tools#bet_simulator
Logged
kefalas68
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 3
Posts: 57


View Profile

kefalas68

Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2019, 09:28:33 AM »

@turbobets This is a very interesting tool there. I think that is what the OP is looking for and a big thanks from me too..
Logged
Shawn2k
Has experience
**

Karma: 3
Posts: 101


View Profile

Shawn2k

Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« Reply #7 on: March 11, 2019, 08:19:33 AM »

Maybe this will help sportsbettingcalcs.com/betting-tools#bet_simulator

This is EXACTLY what I'm looking for! Perfect. Very thankful :)
Logged
Shawn2k
Has experience
**

Karma: 3
Posts: 101


View Profile

Shawn2k

Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« Reply #8 on: March 11, 2019, 01:04:00 PM »

Seems like there is a small error in the calc - Or am I the error?

If I use average odds 5,00 compared to 2,00, with the same ROI, bankroll and stacksizes, we get very big differences in "Median End Bankroll", and also "Avg End Bankroll". Makes no sense to me.

Yes, it will have a lot bigger variance, but the end result at average will be the same. (If we bet only at odds 10,50 when 10,00 is the true odds compared to 2,10 with true odds 2,00). 5% EV is 5% EV.

..But seems like "Chance of Loss at End" works, which was the one I was looking for, so still very thankful  :)
Logged
Wolfie
Pro
****

Karma: 26
Posts: 408



View Profile

Wolfie

Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« Reply #9 on: March 11, 2019, 01:29:00 PM »

Seems like there is a small error in the calc - Or am I the error?

If I use average odds 5,00 compared to 2,00, with the same ROI, bankroll and stacksizes, we get very big differences in "Median End Bankroll", and also "Avg End Bankroll". Makes no sense to me.

Yes, it will have a lot bigger variance, but the end result at average will be the same. (If we bet only at odds 10,50 when 10,00 is the true odds compared to 2,10 with true odds 2,00). 5% EV is 5% EV.

..But seems like "Chance of Loss at End" works, which was the one I was looking for, so still very thankful  :)

It is because it makes only 20 simulations. If you do it more times you will get a better average.
Logged
Shawn2k
Has experience
**

Karma: 3
Posts: 101


View Profile

Shawn2k

Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« Reply #10 on: March 11, 2019, 01:45:35 PM »

It's not that. Just try 10K bets with avg odds 2,00 vs avg odds 10,00 - And you'll probably see what I mean. Use the same ROI. It's completely different results.

Average ending bankroll would over large samples be exactly the same no mather what your avg. odds are - But with this calc it gives less avg. bankroll the higher odds you use (With same winrate\roi). And not just less, big difference. And yes, I've done it many times.

Examples of Avg Ending Bankroll (5% roi, flat stakes, 10k bets);
Avg Odds 5,00: Bankroll increase with 123 Units
Avg Odds 2,00: Bankroll increase with 500 Units
Avg Odds 10,00: Bankroll increase with 55 Units

..... The only line I think is correct at that calc is "Chance of Loss at End", which is the one I wanted, but it would have been great if the others worked as well..
« Last Edit: March 11, 2019, 02:01:23 PM by Shawn2k » Logged
Wolfie
Pro
****

Karma: 26
Posts: 408



View Profile

Wolfie

Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2019, 01:58:04 PM »

It's not that. Just try 10K bets with avg odds 2,00 vs avg odds 10,00 - And you'll probably see what I mean.

Use the same ROI. It's completely different results.

Average ending bankroll would over large samples be exactly the same no mather what your avg. odds are - But with this calc it gives less avg. bankroll the higher odds you use (With same winrate\roi). And not just less, big differences. Can't be right.

You are right. Something wrong there. Because if it were variance it would even out with larger number of bets. I tried with 100000 bets and still big difference.
Logged
Shawn2k
Has experience
**

Karma: 3
Posts: 101


View Profile

Shawn2k

Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2019, 02:02:12 PM »

Then we agree Wolfie, but I think "Chance of Loss at End" is correct, it moves logically at least.
Logged
Chipmunk
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 5
Posts: 90


View Profile

Chipmunk

Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2019, 05:02:53 PM »

It's not that. Just try 10K bets with avg odds 2,00 vs avg odds 10,00 - And you'll probably see what I mean. Use the same ROI. It's completely different results.

Yes, that's correct. It's the difference between EV and EG - the same edge at higher odds has considerably worse EG.
Logged
Pages: [1]
Print