Some interesting Data for Value Betting

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kefalas68
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kefalas68

Some interesting Data for Value Betting
« on: March 12, 2019, 03:26:48 PM »

Hello everyone. I thought i should share some of my stats regarding Value Bets.
 There are some interesting conclusions that someone can use i believe.
First of all all the data i provide here are taken from valuebets made on 3 High street bookmaker after comparing pinnacle's odds and the bookies odds using a well known software.
The whole sample of bets is almost 20.000 and the period is from 01/06/2018 till 10/03/2019 so that is 9 months.
So Total number of bets is 19708 where avg EV is 6.2% comparing pinnys closing lines to the odds played , my roi sits at a very good 7.2% while my stakes are at average 5E/stake. Initial Bank was 2000 euro.
What is more interesting though is that if i played only odds 3.2< odds played < 10 my roi would be at -13.6%. The sample of those bets is 1650 bets which is not a small sample to make some conclusions.
If i played only odds 1.5 < odds played < 3.2 my roi would be at almost 10%.
So is it my idea or is betting value bets on odds bigger than 3 a losing tactic? Anyone that has different results?
 
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Alfa1234
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Re: Some interesting Data for Value Betting
« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2019, 05:08:20 PM »

Higher odds you shouldn't take Pinnacle as a reference but rather Betfair.  Say Pinnacle closes an odd at 6.7 but Betfair closes at 8.5...there is no value at all in an odd of 8.2 but judging by the Pinnacle closing odd you'd think there was.
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kefalas68
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Re: Some interesting Data for Value Betting
« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2019, 05:38:34 PM »

that is true but the majority of the stakes are on odds under 5 ( 3<bet odds<5 ). I am seriously thinking of taking odds above 3 off entirely so that way i will reduce the variance also. What is very interesting though is that my roi stands well above expected on lower odds ( 1,5<bet odds<3 ).
i have some more interesting data from live value betting but i need some time to collect them atm
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marc23
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Re: Some interesting Data for Value Betting
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2019, 10:35:13 AM »

Interesting indeed. Could you please share the results for the intervals 3.20-4.00 and 4.00-5.00? Are the results dramatically collapsing only at very big odds (let's say over 6-7), or are they constantly bad from 3.20 up to 10? Thanks.
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barnstorm
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Re: Some interesting Data for Value Betting
« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2019, 06:21:52 PM »

If Value Betting is the Holy Grail of betting, then filtering your Value Bets is the Holy Grail of Value Betting.

One way would be to filter for the most profitable range of odds as discussed here. Favorites vs dogs. Who does better on value bets?

Another would be over vs unders by sport? Value bets on Soccer unders may do better than value bets on soccer overs?

Any others?

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kefalas68
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Re: Some interesting Data for Value Betting
« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2019, 07:20:05 PM »

Interesting indeed. Could you please share the results for the intervals 3.20-4.00 and 4.00-5.00? Are the results dramatically collapsing only at very big odds (let's say over 6-7), or are they constantly bad from 3.20 up to 10? Thanks.

3.2 to 4         ROI -15.2% number of bets 1218
4.01 to 5       ROI -48.69% number of bets 160
5.01 to 10     ROI -100% ( yes this is true...) number of bets 28

SO there is a good enough sample for odds between 3.2 to 4 to make a conclusion,
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barnstorm
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Re: Some interesting Data for Value Betting
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2019, 02:29:39 AM »

It really shouldn't matter whether you pick big dogs or big favorites or even games. Over time, they should all be positive. It is strange that you would have such a difference. Just not enough bets to take care of the variance?
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cristi13
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Re: Some interesting Data for Value Betting
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2019, 11:36:29 AM »

i probably ran into better variance
odds 3-4.99, 4.06%, 1688 bets
odds 5-25, 34.42%, 368 bets
« Last Edit: March 20, 2019, 11:40:16 AM by cristi13 » Logged
djordjeno
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Re: Some interesting Data for Value Betting
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2019, 02:29:21 PM »

Hello everyone. I thought i should share some of my stats regarding Value Bets.
 There are some interesting conclusions that someone can use i believe.
First of all all the data i provide here are taken from valuebets made on 3 High street bookmaker after comparing pinnacle's odds and the bookies odds using a well known software.
The whole sample of bets is almost 20.000 and the period is from 01/06/2018 till 10/03/2019 so that is 9 months.
So Total number of bets is 19708 where avg EV is 6.2% comparing pinnys closing lines to the odds played , my roi sits at a very good 7.2% while my stakes are at average 5E/stake. Initial Bank was 2000 euro.
What is more interesting though is that if i played only odds 3.2< odds played < 10 my roi would be at -13.6%. The sample of those bets is 1650 bets which is not a small sample to make some conclusions.
If i played only odds 1.5 < odds played < 3.2 my roi would be at almost 10%.
So is it my idea or is betting value bets on odds bigger than 3 a losing tactic? Anyone that has different results?
 


Interesting data.

Please elaborate how you place a bet when last changed pinnacle line is 40 seconds before match start? Until that odds were same street bookmaker = pinnacle.
How in that case you can place (value) bet at "High street bookmaker"?

how much of those bets are in fact surebets?
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kefalas68
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kefalas68

Re: Some interesting Data for Value Betting
« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2019, 05:44:35 PM »

Hello everyone. I thought i should share some of my stats regarding Value Bets.
 There are some interesting conclusions that someone can use i believe.
First of all all the data i provide here are taken from valuebets made on 3 High street bookmaker after comparing pinnacle's odds and the bookies odds using a well known software.
The whole sample of bets is almost 20.000 and the period is from 01/06/2018 till 10/03/2019 so that is 9 months.
So Total number of bets is 19708 where avg EV is 6.2% comparing pinnys closing lines to the odds played , my roi sits at a very good 7.2% while my stakes are at average 5E/stake. Initial Bank was 2000 euro.
What is more interesting though is that if i played only odds 3.2< odds played < 10 my roi would be at -13.6%. The sample of those bets is 1650 bets which is not a small sample to make some conclusions.
If i played only odds 1.5 < odds played < 3.2 my roi would be at almost 10%.
So is it my idea or is betting value bets on odds bigger than 3 a losing tactic? Anyone that has different results?
 


Interesting data.

Please elaborate how you place a bet when last changed pinnacle line is 40 seconds before match start? Until that odds were same street bookmaker = pinnacle.
How in that case you can place (value) bet at "High street bookmaker"?

how much of those bets are in fact surebets?
The bet can be placed like 20 hrs before the event. But when comparing the +EV i take under consideration what were pinnys closing line. So i could have placed a bet with an EV +10% and the closing pinny line would make it a -10% EV and of course vice versa.
But the stats i show here are the total sum of them.
Is this what you are asking me or i miss something.
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djordjeno
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djordjeno

Re: Some interesting Data for Value Betting
« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2019, 10:22:22 AM »

Hello everyone. I thought i should share some of my stats regarding Value Bets.
 There are some interesting conclusions that someone can use i believe.
First of all all the data i provide here are taken from valuebets made on 3 High street bookmaker after comparing pinnacle's odds and the bookies odds using a well known software.
The whole sample of bets is almost 20.000 and the period is from 01/06/2018 till 10/03/2019 so that is 9 months.
So Total number of bets is 19708 where avg EV is 6.2% comparing pinnys closing lines to the odds played , my roi sits at a very good 7.2% while my stakes are at average 5E/stake. Initial Bank was 2000 euro.
What is more interesting though is that if i played only odds 3.2< odds played < 10 my roi would be at -13.6%. The sample of those bets is 1650 bets which is not a small sample to make some conclusions.
If i played only odds 1.5 < odds played < 3.2 my roi would be at almost 10%.
So is it my idea or is betting value bets on odds bigger than 3 a losing tactic? Anyone that has different results?
 


Interesting data.

Please elaborate how you place a bet when last changed pinnacle line is 40 seconds before match start? Until that odds were same street bookmaker = pinnacle.
How in that case you can place (value) bet at "High street bookmaker"?

how much of those bets are in fact surebets?
The bet can be placed like 20 hrs before the event. But when comparing the +EV i take under consideration what were pinnys closing line. So i could have placed a bet with an EV +10% and the closing pinny line would make it a -10% EV and of course vice versa.
But the stats i show here are the total sum of them.
Is this what you are asking me or i miss something.

Ok I understand.
But your profit/roi from first post("roi sits at a very good 7.2%") include all EV, Negative and positive. On all your bets. Because you do not know (20h before) what would be pinnacle closing line.


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kefalas68
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kefalas68

Re: Some interesting Data for Value Betting
« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2019, 05:51:20 PM »

exactly. What i wanted to point out is how awful ( negative ) results i got on odds above 3.2 . Taking under consideration that at the time placed my EV is +5% what would be logical is that i should get some negative EV on closing lines and some more positive, though i keep missing on big odds. Maybe its just luck but i think my sample is big enough to make some conclusions
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