Reducing variance

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AlexNotman1
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AlexNotman1

Reducing variance
« on: April 20, 2019, 01:32:44 PM »

As we know variance can be pain in the ass when valuebetting. Higher odds, higher chance to get very "nice" downswing. So I started wondering, why the hell betting high odds? Even with evens we can experience huge downswing. So according to the fact not much decent researches here lately I'm going to start one expecting some comments. Started valuebetting with high stakes two, three months ago so volume isn't significant but considerinf fact that I bet low odds only I'm pretty sure it's enough to draw some conclusions. 

Let's get to the point. You can have a look on jpg attached. I've placed 1097 bets with a bookie, average odds of 1.13. As you can see graph is pretty steady, no ups and downs which is crucial to me. I'm to nervous lately to deal with huge downswings, I'm gonna sleep well.

Let's have a look on another graph. Average odds of 1.23, 1024 bets and decent downswings which isn't something I'm looking for. You may say this downswing is nothing but if you deal with decent stakes, even if 1% of your bankroll and you need steady profit every month you wouldn't be happy of downswing.

Again, this isn't huge database but I've got another one according to second scenario, similar odds, over 1k bets and downswings there are pretty same. So betting average odds of 1.23-1.25 I experienced downswing of 15 units. I don't even want to think about downswing if betting evens.

I forgot to mention about +EV taken. In second scenario EV taken is I guess twice higher comparing to Pinnacle.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2019, 01:34:23 PM by AlexNotman1 » Logged
dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: Reducing variance
« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2019, 02:27:18 PM »

I think I would prefer high odds. 

Losing a few low odds bets would dent the roll a lot.

Each to their own I guess, gl with your betting
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barnstorm
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Re: Reducing variance
« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2019, 04:12:10 PM »

I don't like the variance either. Maybe stay between 1.50 (-200) and 3.00 (+200) to sleep better at night? Or maybe 1.67 (-150) and 2.50 (+150) for even more restful sleep?

In addition, I don't like betting every value bet blindly.

I started doing much better when I only took value bets where the odds were steaming in my favor. True, they could steam back at your number before game time, but it has worked out well so far. Of course, it's true that most value bets are by nature on odds at books that are slow to change their lines.

To take it one step farther, you might only want to do certain types of bets, or certain sports, or just home teams, or just unders. Does anyone have any stats on how the different types of wagers do as value bets?
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AlexNotman1
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Re: Reducing variance
« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2019, 04:25:44 PM »


To take it one step farther, you might only want to do certain types of bets, or certain sports, or just home teams, or just unders. Does anyone have any stats on how the different types of wagers do as value bets?

Yeah, Ive done such research. My theory was: unders should do better. Why? Let's say you bet under. What can happen? Less likely odds drift. Time pass by, especially second half, odds steaming. So you take your bet. There will be some goals scored when your bet is pending so won't be accepted and you should gain some tiny advantage. Allright then, I've made my stats. Won't past here cause I got rid of them but it was based on around 1k bets and according to my stats unders didn't give me better results, more than that - Match Odds was better. Slighty but better. So I guess doesn't matter what type of bets you take, as long market is efficient, not third league of Pakistan waterball, doesn't matter what bet you take. 2% value is 2% value in such markets.
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barnstorm
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Re: Reducing variance
« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2019, 04:38:21 PM »

If you figure a value bet is a bet with steam, then there must be stats on how well steam does. Of course, we will do much better than steam because we are getting the stale, better odds from a book that has not yet adjusted for the steam.

And there must be stats on what sports steam does best in, and what type of wagers - home or visitor, favorite or dog, over or under.
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kefalas68
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kefalas68

Re: Reducing variance
« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2019, 05:22:26 PM »

@OP , Are you using flat stakes or to win ammount stakes? Because my numbers are totally diferrent than yours and my sample is a lot bigger... I go with the to win ammount stakes so maybe there is the key difference
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AlexNotman1
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Re: Reducing variance
« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2019, 05:38:18 PM »

Flat stake.  What you mean totally different, can you get into details please? But these stats have nothing to do with stakes. Graph shows units won.
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barnstorm
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barnstorm

Re: Reducing variance
« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2019, 05:43:10 PM »

Yes you have to go with a flat stake to win bet, I think.

5 to win 10 for 3.00 or 20 to win 10 for 1.50.
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AlexNotman1
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Re: Reducing variance
« Reply #8 on: April 20, 2019, 05:51:19 PM »

Allright, this way it's correct. Anyway, please attach some stats if you can.
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