Potential Value

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Giorgin07
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Giorgin07

Potential Value
« on: April 30, 2019, 02:45:01 PM »

Does the following has a really big value or am I missing something?

Offered odds at 22 for HT 1-1 and FT 2-1
If I lay the HT score (1-1) at 9.4 I can get a really great value.
I can lose only in a 1-1 HT score.
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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: Potential Value
« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2019, 08:29:35 PM »

Not to sound ridiculous, but if you bet on 4-1 and lay the HT 1-1 I'll bet you the "value" will be even greater, no?

Think for just a second...how will you ever make money if you are going to lose 100% of your stake every time the game is 1-1 at HT?  That will happen once every 11 games.  Or will you chase the losses by laying the 2-1 again at half time every time the game is 1-1 after 45mins?  Because I can guarantee you that will become an even bigger disaster after a proportionate amount of games.

You cannot find value by playing with different outcomes and math this way.

Oh and that 22 odd for 1-1 / 2-1 in the Barca Liverpool game is absolutely terrible value...you can find it at 40.0 as well.
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Giorgin07
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Re: Potential Value
« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2019, 10:05:54 PM »

Sorry but I didn’t get the first part of your answer.
If the game is 1-1 at HT then i can lay 1-2 or cash out the first bet.I will of course lose but at least i’all get some of my stake back.
Is it really so difficult to happen?
The probability of 1-1 at HT based on calculator is 8%.
The game i was referring was Betis-Espanyol yesterday not Barcelona-Liverpool.
*Edit
At Barcelona-Liverpool a good combination would be
0-2HT, 3-2FT at 201
Lay 0-2 HT at 40
« Last Edit: April 30, 2019, 10:11:59 PM by Giorgin07 » Logged
Dentz
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Dentz

Re: Potential Value
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2019, 04:44:52 PM »

Sorry, but I didn't understood your bet? So you lay 1-1 HT and Bet 1-2FT? Or lay both? What is the reason for these bets?
Is 1-2 FT just safety bet in case of 1-1 in Half time? It is very rare to find value in safety bets since they always are in different markets and usually comission kills the edge.
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kefalas68
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kefalas68

Re: Potential Value
« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2019, 05:18:29 PM »

Sorry but I didn’t get the first part of your answer.
If the game is 1-1 at HT then i can lay 1-2 or cash out the first bet.I will of course lose but at least i’all get some of my stake back.
Is it really so difficult to happen?
The probability of 1-1 at HT based on calculator is 8%.
The game i was referring was Betis-Espanyol yesterday not Barcelona-Liverpool.
*Edit
At Barcelona-Liverpool a good combination would be
0-2HT, 3-2FT at 201
Lay 0-2 HT at 40

So if i get the point... You back 0-2 HT and 3-2 full time at 201 lets say you back 10 euro so expexted profit is 2010-10=2000 euro if you win this bet
then Lay 0-2 HT at 40. lets say you Lay that for 10 euro profit at 40 odds you need to bet 10/40-10= 0.33 euro
If game is 0-2 HT you lose just 0.33 euro and wait for the FT 3-2 to win 2000 euro. Is that your thinking?
Well odds here are enormous so maybe it makes sence to do that and believe in a miracle since the only condition you could lose both is by HT result being 0-2 and FT result any other than 3-2 but yet i cannot find the hidden value. Maybe i get something wrong..
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Giorgin07
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Giorgin07

Re: Potential Value
« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2019, 10:59:45 PM »

Sorry guys but I didn’t explain it well.
Let me try again.
I back 10€ 1-1HT,2-1FT at 22
I lay ~24€ 1-1HT (Liability ~200€)
So if HT is not 1-1 my profit is ~13€
if HT is 1-1 i can cash-out the back bet or lay 2-1FT to minimize my loss.
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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: Potential Value
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2019, 07:54:01 AM »

Sorry guys but I didn’t explain it well.
Let me try again.
I back 10€ 1-1HT,2-1FT at 22
I lay ~24€ 1-1HT (Liability ~200€)
So if HT is not 1-1 my profit is ~13€
if HT is 1-1 i can cash-out the back bet or lay 2-1FT to minimize my loss.

You gave the answer above.  8% probability for 1-1 at HT means you will lose your 200€ liability once every 12 games.

So for every 12 times you do this you'll have 1 loss = -210 and 11 wins = 143.  That means every 12 games you will lose 67€ and you'll only get a slight amount back by risking a lot more if you lay the 2-1 FT at HT.  Not a good idea!!

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Giorgin07
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Giorgin07

Re: Potential Value
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2019, 01:01:32 PM »

Sorry guys but I didn’t explain it well.
Let me try again.
I back 10€ 1-1HT,2-1FT at 22
I lay ~24€ 1-1HT (Liability ~200€)
So if HT is not 1-1 my profit is ~13€
if HT is 1-1 i can cash-out the back bet or lay 2-1FT to minimize my loss.

You gave the answer above.  8% probability for 1-1 at HT means you will lose your 200€ liability once every 12 games.

So for every 12 times you do this you'll have 1 loss = -210 and 11 wins = 143.  That means every 12 games you will lose 67€ and you'll only get a slight amount back by risking a lot more if you lay the 2-1 FT at HT.  Not a good idea!!
Yes,you’re right.I didn’t get the maths right over there.
Thank you
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