Value Betting compared to Betting a Proven Statistical Trend or Capper?

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Author Topic: Value Betting compared to Betting a Proven Statistical Trend or Capper?  (Read 1485 times)
barnstorm
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What % would one have to win at to equal value betting?

Say if one is betting all point spreads at 1.91 (-110).

I figure about 55%?
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 12:40:17 PM by barnstorm » Logged
barnstorm
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Re: Value Betting compared to Sharp Betting
« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2019, 12:39:18 PM »

What % would one have to win at to equal value betting?

Say if one is betting all point spreads at 1.91 (-110).

I figure about 55%?

Just re-upping this one.

What I mean is, if you found a solid statistical trend that has hit at 55% over thousands of games, or even a solid capper who has a long track record of 55%, wouldn't that be the equivalent of value betting?

I know past results are no guarantee of future performance, but the advantage is that you would not be identified as an Arber or Value Bettor chasing stale lines and getting banned by books. That is the ultimate end of Arbing and Value Betting as we have all found. Of course, in the end, you might get banned for just winning regularly.
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Chipmunk
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You get banned just the same way, so no advantage on that front.
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barbero
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You'll break even by winning 1/1.91 = 52.356% of bets at 1.91 odds. Anything above that will yield positive results.

But if you want to equal value betting... well, that depends on what yield you are expecting to get by value betting, there's no such thing as a "fixed value betting yield".
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barnstorm
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You'll break even by winning 1/1.91 = 52.356% of bets at 1.91 odds. Anything above that will yield positive results.

But if you want to equal value betting... well, that depends on what yield you are expecting to get by value betting, there's no such thing as a "fixed value betting yield".

Thanks. Yes, I realized every value bettor has a different yield based on what parameters they employ. But what do you think the average value bettor is getting? 55%? More?
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barnstorm
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You get banned just the same way, so no advantage on that front.

Maybe not, as if you are just betting point spread and over/under trends, you could use Books that don't ban winners. Or do they all ban winners now? Even Pinnacle and the Exchanges?
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turbobets
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My last 1000 wagers 56.1% with average odds of 1.95 (-105). By my estimation I should be hitting 54.8% so I may be a little ahead of the curve. I used 2017 to practice and set some parameters. Became comfortable enough in 2018 to invest more time and money into it. I consider value betting a side business now. Many thanks to Arbusers and its community, much of what I learned on the subject came from you.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2019, 06:01:31 AM by turbobets » Logged
arbusers
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Thanks for the good words. Much appreciated.
We hope we will contribute even more in the future.
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