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The Arbusers Value Betting Index II

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index II

Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:23 pm

I know value betting will make more money in the long run, but I cant bring myself to take on the variance of it.

What is helping is the Betdaq 0% offer, as I feel arbing is as good as value betting as long as you have a 0% exchange offer.  Sadly it runs out soon lol
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index II

Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:12 pm

Th wrote: what are the feeling of the manager of the pag e ?

it is simply a wrong allocation of value bet vs manual adjustment (exp judgement) ? all rest of industry seems to work fine
thanks
We don't have feelings but thoughts.
This is an experiment. Based on our paper trading calculations, we know that in the end we will win and we will make money. Ups and downs are acceptable as this is the nature of value betting as it is for value investing as well. Through trial and error we are trying to build a project that in the end, the possibilities of winning will be more than the possibilities of losing.
It is our firm belief that auto value betting with the use of bots, is more profitable compared to manual value betting online. But this doesn't mean that we will not explore other aspects of value betting.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index II

Sun Jul 28, 2019 5:10 pm

The Arbusers Value Betting Index II came to an abrupt end. We suffered losses during July as well. All participants of the project had a brainstorming and we decided that we can't maintain the safety of principal and an adequate return. Obviously, we can't beat sharp bookmakers in this project.
Even though we don't like losing funds, we are happy that we explored possibilities and we were able to share this project with our members. We believe, the intelligent bettor is predominantly defined by the time willing to sacrifice in order to educate himself and this is exactly what we have done here.
We would like to thank Attila Pasztor and his team from Odds4Stats for all the time and efforts that he dedicated to the project. Of course, our trust to Attila and the team is intact.

At this point, we would like to remind the AVBI I that was super successful and proved to be working well.

Here is the graph for July 2019:

AVBI2 July 19.png
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index II

Sun Jul 28, 2019 5:11 pm

And here are the stats since the beginning of the project, April the 1st 2019:

AVBI2 Overall.png
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index II

Sun Jul 28, 2019 8:45 pm

Sad to see this end and I'm frankly surprised by the bad results, I had high hopes for this project.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index II

Mon Jul 29, 2019 6:00 am

I think one of the problems of value betting is that the "value" side is still negative EV as sharp players who have info or knowledge have moved the line creating what looks like a value situation but is actually not.

IE knowledge of players not playing, or injuries, or even match fixing etc will create value situations on paper, but taking the bet is still a losing situation.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index II

Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:29 pm

I m really sorry to see the project going down and arbusers losing money.
I have huge respect about the work being done in the forum and the contribution to the smart betting world.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index II

Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:20 am

Sorry it didn't work out. If the data is strongly suggesting that the long term return won't be positive then better to walk away. Out of interest, can you say how many bets were placed in total? Also I'm curious if when you broke the data down by sport if there were any you were winning on?
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index II

Sun Aug 04, 2019 2:33 pm

We started with a flat bet of 100 euros and then continued at 200 euros near the end of the project. The average bet was 119.54.
It was only football and 1x2 markets.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index II

Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:02 pm

You have to add more sports and markets to decrease variance . Value Betting is a daily grind but way more profitable than arbing if you put on serious volume.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index II

Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:28 pm

jonibiza19 wrote: You have to add more sports and markets to decrease variance . Value Betting is a daily grind but way more profitable than arbing if you put on serious volume.
Based on what arbusers said I don't think variance was the primary factor in stopping the project. It was that sharps pricing was too strong to beat more often than not. That was my understanding at least. A higher volume in this case would've just meant higher losses which would've been even worse.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index II

Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:32 pm

jonibiza19 wrote: You have to add more sports and markets to decrease variance . Value Betting is a daily grind but way more profitable than arbing if you put on serious volume.
Yes, you are very much correct. But Attila's specialization and database are on football.
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index II

Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:35 pm

LazyBird wrote:
jonibiza19 wrote: You have to add more sports and markets to decrease variance . Value Betting is a daily grind but way more profitable than arbing if you put on serious volume.
Based on what arbusers said I don't think variance was the primary factor in stopping the project. It was that sharps pricing was too strong to beat more often than not. That was my understanding at least. A higher volume in this case would've just meant higher losses which would've been even worse.
The factor that stopped the project was mathematics. We simply figured out that we couldn't beat the exchanges with value betting of this kind. Most probably, other projects would be able to beat them, but not this one, not today.
And of course, as you correctly say, bigger volumes would result in bigger losses.

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