Possible fixed match

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AceJack
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AceJack

Possible fixed match
« on: June 04, 2019, 03:27:10 PM »

Hi Guys hope everyone is doing well.

Last weekend there was some headlines about an "allsvenska" match being fixed. And I have speculated alot around fixed matches

I looked at this match today:
Lugo v Tenerife draw is currently trading at around 2,3  at betfair seams superficially low for draw prematch?

I would love to hear you guys take on this ?
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alealeale
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alealeale

Re: Possible fixed match
« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2019, 03:59:35 PM »

Pinnacle just voided me 3 bets done on 28th may (they were on 1 and 2) and let another one made two day ago running. Risking big stakes on matches like that don't let me stay calm.
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AceJack
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Re: Possible fixed match
« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2019, 04:26:26 PM »

What do you mean did they reject bets on home (1) and away (2) ? but later accepted bets on draw?

I made a small bet on this match (12) just to test the waters on this one. Total odds of 1.7 for 12 is quite unusual for a prematch game i would say...
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 04:30:31 PM by AceJack » Logged
alealeale
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alealeale

Re: Possible fixed match
« Reply #3 on: June 04, 2019, 05:52:33 PM »

28th May: 1ah-0,5@2,72 voided today
28th May: 2@3,83 voided today
(i remember high spikes on both, I took good but not top odds)
They were against x@2,95 italian bookies (3,8%)
then...
2nd June: 1@3,08 running
today: other two bets running
I've asked Asianconnect to ask Pinnacle the reason of the first voids and if the third bet was ok  but they told me that Pinnacle didn't give them anything, just, copy and paste:
"Pinnacle has already voided the group of bets that needed to be voided.
If there is some more bets that are going to be subjected to the same, we shall received a statement from them accordingly."
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AceJack
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Re: Possible fixed match
« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2019, 08:09:42 PM »

i wonder if someone bet real high at the Draw on this match maybe a couple of millions i dunno. Weird thing right now is that all tv streams works for all  Segunda league matches today except this match (this is at bet 365)
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: Possible fixed match
« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2019, 08:12:33 PM »

For the record, almost all Value Betting projects picked up early prices for the draw in this event. I see O4S jumping in at odds 2.67.
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AlexNotman1
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Re: Possible fixed match
« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2019, 08:32:22 PM »

Lugo you say... I wouldn't take this as "fixed". Im too lazy to post more possibly "fixed" draws at the end of the season. It's a common thing, search for U20 games, loads of them got suspicious low draw odds, below 3.0. It's all manipulations, expectations rather than really fixed games. I don't care if it's fixed or not. Too many manipulations these days. Traded, profit added, period.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 08:38:53 PM by AlexNotman1 » Logged
AceJack
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AceJack

Re: Possible fixed match
« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2019, 09:23:00 PM »

Lugo you say... I wouldn't take this as "fixed". Im too lazy to post more possibly "fixed" draws at the end of the season. It's a common thing, search for U20 games, loads of them got suspicious low draw odds, below 3.0. It's all manipulations, expectations rather than really fixed games. I don't care if it's fixed or not. Too many manipulations these days. Traded, profit added, period.

I´m no expert on this area. Like you said done/traded and profit added is the main goals of course for us,, but I found a couple of interesting things with this particular match

1. It was highest traded match on betfair today in Segunda league
2. quite low odds for draw.
3. before match i think it was traded something like 90k out 110 on draw only

Also as mentioned in previous post quite strange that the live stream was/is black over at bet365 . I know for sure if I was living in Spain I think I would have tried to seen this match live

« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 09:27:32 PM by AceJack » Logged
AlexNotman1
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Re: Possible fixed match
« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2019, 09:31:55 PM »

It's a common thing if we talk about games when both teams are happy with a draw and we talk about Segunda or Serie B. I'm into fixes since years so I can say I've got decent experience. Yes, some of these games are fixed but I experienced too many "fixed" games recently with loads of money suddenly matched so if there isn't stream available so I can judge if there are any dodgy behaviour of the players I jus trade them. For example you can have a look at Girona game, draw traded at 1.4 last years:

https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/spain/laliga2-2016-2017/girona-zaragoza-nDEKjEfH/

Plenty of these fixed games form Italy/Spain last years when on a stream you could see that they intentionally miss but even these games used to fail so can't be 100% sure about them. May be fixed but even notorious fixer Perumal used to say that only 70% of the games he fixed landed due to players issue. Nothing is sure no matter how much matched, no matter how fixed it looks like. It's all about players, some may get scared last minutes, unexpected goal can come in, they may run out of time if they are unable to score. I can prodive you bunch of "fixed" games by a referee when players got pissed of because of dodgy penalty and refused to score so fixers decided to back under instead of over, loads of them. Nothing is sure these days. That's why I stick to trade.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 09:40:24 PM by AlexNotman1 » Logged
AceJack
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AceJack

Re: Possible fixed match
« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2019, 10:12:45 PM »

draw traded at 1.4 last years:


Thats is crazy low ,

I wonder what the success rate would be long term betting draw on matches like this. If it would be in the 60-70% range like you say  2,2-ish range that would yield a decent profit .
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Shawn2k
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Shawn2k

Re: Possible fixed match
« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2019, 07:58:34 AM »

Pinnacle just voided me 3 bets done on 28th may (they were on 1 and 2) and let another one made two day ago running. Risking big stakes on matches like that don't let me stay calm.

The match was originally scheduled June 2nd and was postponed to June 4th (This happend June 1st). I think that's why the bets were voided? (Don't know why they kept one open).

I also had bets on this match, but all bets made before the weekend (sharps) were voided.
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alealeale
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alealeale

Re: Possible fixed match
« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2019, 08:35:35 AM »

Pinnacle just voided me 3 bets done on 28th may (they were on 1 and 2) and let another one made two day ago running. Risking big stakes on matches like that don't let me stay calm.

The match was originally scheduled June 2nd and was postponed to June 4th (This happend June 1st). I think that's why the bets were voided? (Don't know why they kept one open).

I also had bets on this match, but all bets made before the weekend (sharps) were voided.
Yes, it has to be the reason, I remember other times Pinnacle voided bets because of different time schedule (the third bet probably was correct). I couldn't ask directly to Pinnacle, thanks for your post.
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