How I use value betting

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freaked
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freaked

How I use value betting
« on: July 13, 2019, 09:31:21 AM »

I take the midway point of the back and lay prices on Betfair (in an efficient market) and use this as the true price.
Do some people think Pinnacle (or another source) is a better reflection of the true price?

Also, what service do you recommend to compare the soft odds with Betfair exchange?
The one I use at the moment just covers match odds on football - I would be happy to pay more for a service that includes all markets on Betfair.
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barnstorm
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Re: How I use value betting
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2019, 04:43:19 PM »

Is midway point the best way to calculate the true price.

Here's a calculator that arrives at a different price.

https://sportsbettingsites.org/betting-tools/no-vig-calculator/

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freaked
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freaked

Re: How I use value betting
« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2019, 07:30:02 AM »

What do the services showing value bets use?
The Betfair midway point? The pinnacle price without vig? Or an average of sharp prices without vig?
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barnstorm
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Re: How I use value betting
« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2019, 12:32:36 PM »

What do the services showing value bets use?
The Betfair midway point? The pinnacle price without vig? Or an average of sharp prices without vig?

They won't say as that is there "secret sauce." But you can expect they have a formula that comes pretty close to what that calculator will give you, which is Pinnacle minus the juice. They may average Pinnacle with another sharp source or two. I doubt that they have an in-house group or computer program that is crunching stats and numbers on each individual game to determine what they feel is fair value.
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LazyBird
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Re: How I use value betting
« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2019, 11:56:42 AM »

I like Betburgers new value betting service. You can select exactly which bookmakers youd like to use for value bet calculation and how many of them your value bet 'display' bookmakers have value against before a bet will appear in the list. This way you can choose to follow sharps, the wisdom of the crowd or some combination of both.

A lot of the value bet services think they have this 'secret sauce' that barnstorm mentioned above even though for some its painfully obvious that often they're relying entirely on the pinnacle price and you cant customize anything.
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