Value betting performance day to day

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arbusers
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Value betting performance day to day
« on: August 04, 2019, 11:35:08 AM »

This thread is about your ongoing day to day value betting performance, no matter if it is based on bots our conducted manually. Feel free to contribute.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Value betting performance day to day
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2019, 06:43:45 PM »

So I'd be ok tracking performance on a weekly basis. This past week (week number 41) ended at 211 bets at 4.3% ROI, largest turnover so far.

In 2019 I have had 10 negative weeks, 28 positive weeks and 3 weeks with no betting at all.

    W41 (211 bets) 4,3%    W40 (195 bets) 4,1%    W39 (135 bets) 15,9%    W38 (108 bets) -6,1%    W37 (105 bets) 2,9%    W36 (122 bets) 0,3%    W35 (132 bets) 4,8%    W34 (163 bets) 5,2%    W33 (110 bets) 18,4%    W32 (132 bets) 2,4%    W31 (101 bets) 2,1%    W30 (59 bets) 6,8%    W29 (85 bets) 12,4%    W28 (2 bets) -100%    W27 (6 bets) 39,7%    W26 (31 bets) -4%    W25 (49 bets) 0,4%    W24 (61 bets) -27%    W23 (22 bets) -62,5%    W22 (31 bets) -53,3%    W21 (85 bets) 12,9%    W20 (68 bets) 33,5%    W19 (44 bets) -8,4%    W18 (19 bets) 3,9%    W17 (119 bets) 5,9%    W16 (41 bets) 16,3%    W15 (80 bets) 20,7%    W14 (72 bets) -5,7%    W13 (40 bets) 18,4%    W12 (20 bets) 34,2%    W11 (23 bets) -41,4%    W10 (0 bets) 0%    W9 (0 bets) 0%    W8 (0 bets) 0%    W7 (17 bets) -58,1%    W6 (50 bets) 21,6%    W5 (77 bets) 20,6%    W4 (76 bets) 23,7%    W3 (97 bets) 8,9%    W2 (100 bets) 2,5%    W1 (68 bets) 25,9%
« Last Edit: October 14, 2019, 06:45:21 PM by VidaBlue » Logged
Phoenixking
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Re: Value betting performance day to day
« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2019, 12:20:30 AM »

Its been a bit of a roller coaster for the past 3 days.  Monday and Tuesday I lost some cash, Went back and checked all my losses with pinnacle closing line. For the most part I was beating the lines. Then came the light bulb moment.

For example a odd of 1.9 has more chances of happening due to the implied probability of  52% than say something like 3.80. The drastic differences in the odds caused a lot variance in my bets, Despite having a positive expected value on every one of my bets,I was losing money.

Made some ground rules for wednesday, Finding value from the lowest possible odd (Min 1.5) in the 1X2 market then move in the ascending order to the next leg say 2.45, But only bet when the edge is well established. Covered all my loses+Ended with a profit of $30 today :D ;).
 
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arbusers
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Re: Value betting performance day to day
« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2019, 06:56:49 AM »

What is your staking plan here?
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Phoenixking
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Re: Value betting performance day to day
« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2019, 07:02:21 AM »

Flat Stakes, 10 dollars per bet. Gonna move to percentage staking once i have accumulated enough profit. 1%
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arbusers
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Re: Value betting performance day to day
« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2019, 07:36:26 AM »

Flat Stakes, 10 dollars per bet. Gonna move to percentage staking once i have accumulated enough profit. 1%

The percentage staking works better than flat staking. There are many calculations on that.
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Phoenixking
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Re: Value betting performance day to day
« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2019, 09:26:50 AM »

Thanks for the info bro, Should work well with my filtering techniques as well.  Most possible leg Odd : 1.9 > 2% Stack , The next possible leg with a nice edge Odd :2.45 > 1% Stack. Gonna ignore the least possible leg for now (3.80<) less toll on the mind as well with fewer losing streaks.  :)
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soccerman2
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Re: Value betting performance day to day
« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2019, 10:32:35 AM »

goodmorning

Can i ask you something
You are doing all this manually or with the help of an alert program - bot etc.
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Phoenixking
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Re: Value betting performance day to day
« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2019, 10:55:55 AM »

goodmorning

Can i ask you something
You are doing all this manually or with the help of an alert program - bot etc.

All manual. 8)
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betmachine
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Re: Value betting performance day to day
« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2019, 10:13:14 AM »

How do you recommend playing a value bet? with what fixed or variable stake? and where can we get them what software shows us the value bet?
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VidaBlue
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Re: Value betting performance day to day
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2019, 10:09:47 AM »

To whom it may concern ...

Value betting performance week 42 2019 (oct 14-20)

Period# of betsROI
week 42
167
4.0 %
2019
3.110
5.7 %

Top sports week 42 (sorted list based upon turnover)
Sport# of betsROI
Basket
36
8.6 %
Soccer
33
-1.2 %
Esports
51
-2.1 %
Hockey
31
27.9 %
Other
16
-25.0 %

I am beginning to introduce dynamic staking by adjusting stakes according to past performance. ROI would have been -1.8% this week had I not been doing that  :D

I was celebrating a two-digit ROI Sunday at dinner time with a bottle of wine, just to experience a losing streak Sunday evening (9 times in a row)  ::) never celebrate too early.

    W42 (167 bets) 4,0%    W41 (211 bets) 4,3%    W40 (195 bets) 4,1%    W39 (135 bets) 15,9%    W38 (108 bets) -6,1%    W37 (105 bets) 2,9%    W36 (122 bets) 0,3%    W35 (132 bets) 4,8%    W34 (163 bets) 5,2%    W33 (110 bets) 18,4%    W32 (132 bets) 2,4%    W31 (101 bets) 2,1%    W30 (59 bets) 6,8%    W29 (85 bets) 12,4%    W28 (2 bets) -100%    W27 (6 bets) 39,7%    W26 (31 bets) -4%    W25 (49 bets) 0,4%    W24 (61 bets) -27%    W23 (22 bets) -62,5%    W22 (31 bets) -53,3%    W21 (85 bets) 12,9%    W20 (68 bets) 33,5%    W19 (44 bets) -8,4%    W18 (19 bets) 3,9%    W17 (119 bets) 5,9%    W16 (41 bets) 16,3%    W15 (80 bets) 20,7%    W14 (72 bets) -5,7%    W13 (40 bets) 18,4%    W12 (20 bets) 34,2%    W11 (23 bets) -41,4%    W10 (0 bets) 0%    W9 (0 bets) 0%    W8 (0 bets) 0%    W7 (17 bets) -58,1%    W6 (50 bets) 21,6%    W5 (77 bets) 20,6%    W4 (76 bets) 23,7%    W3 (97 bets) 8,9%    W2 (100 bets) 2,5%    W1 (68 bets) 25,9%
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mosi0909
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Re: Value betting performance day to day
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2019, 05:06:20 PM »

hello bro
I read your post and I have been studying value betting for a few days. I've also done some tests, but all the time I've failed. the way I found out about value betting is by betting all the links the program has shown me. I worked with some programs like betburger, arbmate, oddstorm. i'm interested in working together on value betting, I have no experience in this but i have been playing surebet in live and prematch for several years. Can you please just explain how value betting works? i hope for your respond
« Last Edit: October 21, 2019, 08:54:01 PM by arbusers » Logged
arbusers
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Re: Value betting performance day to day
« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2019, 08:54:23 PM »

Last post modified to protect the forum and the poster.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Value betting performance day to day
« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2019, 11:09:38 PM »

Can you please just explain how value betting works?

Hello Bro

Explaining how value betting works is not the purpose of this thread. Instead of trying to explain value betting from my perspective, I think you will benefit more from reading every post in the category "Value betting talk" in this forum. Many members have put an effort into this, and you may find much valuable information there. My advice to you during this endeavor is not to consider value betting as a set of very firm rules. What works for some people may not work for others, what worked two years ago may not work today, etc. - but the more knowledge you have the better are your chances for success.

I know that many arbers may disagree, but I think that value betting is the natural next step in the evolution of a sports bettor who has already done arbing, so you're probably heading in the right direction.

Good luck!
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Phoenixking
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Re: Value betting performance day to day
« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2019, 01:31:55 AM »

To whom it may concern ...

Value betting performance week 42 2019 (oct 14-20)

Period# of betsROI
week 42
167
4.0 %
2019
3.110
5.7 %

Top sports week 42 (sorted list based upon turnover)
Sport# of betsROI
Basket
36
8.6 %
Soccer
33
-1.2 %
Esports
51
-2.1 %
Hockey
31
27.9 %
Other
16
-25.0 %

I am beginning to introduce dynamic staking by adjusting stakes according to past performance. ROI would have been -1.8% this week had I not been doing that  :D

I was celebrating a two-digit ROI Sunday at dinner time with a bottle of wine, just to experience a losing streak Sunday evening (9 times in a row)  ::) never celebrate too early.

    W42 (167 bets) 4,0%    W41 (211 bets) 4,3%    W40 (195 bets) 4,1%    W39 (135 bets) 15,9%    W38 (108 bets) -6,1%    W37 (105 bets) 2,9%    W36 (122 bets) 0,3%    W35 (132 bets) 4,8%    W34 (163 bets) 5,2%    W33 (110 bets) 18,4%    W32 (132 bets) 2,4%    W31 (101 bets) 2,1%    W30 (59 bets) 6,8%    W29 (85 bets) 12,4%    W28 (2 bets) -100%    W27 (6 bets) 39,7%    W26 (31 bets) -4%    W25 (49 bets) 0,4%    W24 (61 bets) -27%    W23 (22 bets) -62,5%    W22 (31 bets) -53,3%    W21 (85 bets) 12,9%    W20 (68 bets) 33,5%    W19 (44 bets) -8,4%    W18 (19 bets) 3,9%    W17 (119 bets) 5,9%    W16 (41 bets) 16,3%    W15 (80 bets) 20,7%    W14 (72 bets) -5,7%    W13 (40 bets) 18,4%    W12 (20 bets) 34,2%    W11 (23 bets) -41,4%    W10 (0 bets) 0%    W9 (0 bets) 0%    W8 (0 bets) 0%    W7 (17 bets) -58,1%    W6 (50 bets) 21,6%    W5 (77 bets) 20,6%    W4 (76 bets) 23,7%    W3 (97 bets) 8,9%    W2 (100 bets) 2,5%    W1 (68 bets) 25,9%

Thanks for the post man, Too bad I have to wait 1 hour to karma you again.
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