10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit

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Arbermac
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Arbermac

10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« on: August 14, 2019, 12:00:28 AM »

Hi again,

Been on and off this forum for a few years now (for a range of different things) but over the past 10 months I have fully committed to value betting. I wanted to share my personal progress with everyone, discuss it, and hopefully all take something new and positive from it. As can be seen from the attached spreadsheet it has been a very profitable 10 months, but it certainly hasn't come without problems. I have deleted the bookmaker name 'column' from the spreadsheet as it contains some personal info but have left all the events and bets available for people to see.

For those unable to see the attachment the key figures are listed below....

Duration: 10 months
Bets placed: 2416
Total Staked: £62985.51
Total Returned: £95016.81
Total Profit: £32031.3
ROI: 66.3%

My basic theory is to find a bet where I am able to back at odds that are higher than the market average/pinnacle closing line.

As mentioned above it hasn't been all plain sailing and I have highlighted the three biggest problems, with number 1 being by far the biggest of them.

1. Closure of accounts - Everyone on here will no doubt have experienced this but to place nearly 2500 bets, in which I have a positive expected value, I have burnt through accounts. Its probably been said before but if bookies couldn't limit accounts we would all be millionaires haha.

2. Speed of execution - There have been so many times where I have seen a bet that is good value but by the time I have gone though my process of double checking, working out the edge, and determining stake size, the odds have already been slashed.

3. Palping - Although this isn't as much of a problem as when arbing it is still highly annoying when a bet you have is cancelled. The worst ones by far are when the event takes place and your bet wins only far it to not be paid out or settled at correct odds. At least if its before the event you never have the bet at bad value.

I would really appreciate any replies from other value bettors on their experience to see if there are similarities to my own. I also know arbusers themselves attempted a value betting programme with mixed success so would be interesting to see the similarities between this and what I have been doing. Some of the questions i'm hoping to get answered are....

1. Do people bet on similar markets to me?
2. Are your stake sizes similar? (I feel my average stake isn't actually that large at all, although this is partly by choice)
3. Are bookmakers palping more now than they did in the past?

I will also answer any questions people have for me. All in all i'm keen to just start a discussion on this.

Thanks,
Arbermac
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 02:44:54 PM by arbusers » Logged
Arbermac
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Arbermac

Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2019, 12:01:57 AM »

The attachment wouldn't work for some reason but if someone could help me I will get it up ASAP.

Thanks
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2019, 12:43:24 AM »

The attachment wouldn't work for some reason but if someone could help me I will get it up ASAP.

Thanks

Could you send the attachment to arbusers@arbusers.com and then we upload it to the forum?
Many thanks.
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Tblaugrana
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Tblaugrana

Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2019, 01:11:06 AM »

hello what filter do you use to select your bets, do you take the bets on the value of which the beginning of the match is soon?
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Arbermac
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Arbermac

Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2019, 01:21:42 AM »

Hi, I select bets that have higher odds than the current market average or ones which I'm confident are higher than what the sharps will close at (this can't be guaranteed but certain indicators show it will more than likely happen). I would say the majority of the pre match bets are placed within 24 hours of the event starting
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arbusers
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2019, 05:47:24 AM »

Great, thanks. Just sent over now.

The file is really big and cant be uploaded as it is. Could you cut it to 4 pieces and then send them again?
Many thanks.
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Wolfie
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2019, 09:18:48 AM »

You made 32k in 10 months with average stake 26 euro. Pretty interesting.
1.Did you have any negative month ?
2.Most of your profit was live or prematch?
3.Did you bet in all sports all markets all bookies with the only condition that the odds were more than market average ?
4.What is the minimum percentage of value u take ?
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Arbermac
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Arbermac

Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2019, 10:16:47 AM »

You made 32k in 10 months with average stake 26 euro. Pretty interesting.
1.Did you have any negative month ?
2.Most of your profit was live or prematch?
3.Did you bet in all sports all markets all bookies with the only condition that the odds were more than market average ?
4.What is the minimum percentage of value u take ?

I will attempt to send the file in 4 smaller parts like arbusers suggested as it will answer a lot of the questions I imagine people will ask.

1. Every month was profitable. `There were some bets where the bookies were clearly wrong on price and my bet size was increased dramatically as the value was so big (they still pay out on occasion). These could have made some months seem better than they actually were.

2. Fairly even split with pre match and in play, although certain accounts last a lot longer if just doing in play.

3. Yes, at the start if there was value then I would take it regardless of sport, event, bookmaker. However further down the line I came to realise certain bookmakers would limit quicker so at times I would pass on good value bets if I thought it would be one that would definitely kill the account (e.g. betting on Mexican U19 reserve basketball) as I knew in the long term it would be better to keep account active.

4. I normally look for +10%
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2019, 10:26:22 AM »

This explains why not so many bets in 10 months. You chose quality to quantity. Great choices and great results.
 Thanks for sharing.
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dealer wins
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2019, 10:29:49 AM »

Give me 2416 bets with unrestricted soft books and by arbing I would make 10 times your profit.
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Arbermac
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Arbermac

Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2019, 01:49:03 PM »

Give me 2416 bets with unrestricted soft books and by arbing I would make 10 times your profit.

If I had unrestricted accounts I would make 100 times more. Value betting is more profitable than arbing....not even close
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2019, 05:04:05 PM »

Give me 2416 bets with unrestricted soft books and by arbing I would make 10 times your profit.

This must be a joke. Everytime you arb you leave some money on the table, compared to value betting, sometimes up to 5% per bet.
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dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2019, 07:20:23 PM »

Give me 2416 bets with unrestricted soft books and by arbing I would make 10 times your profit.

This must be a joke. Everytime you arb you leave some money on the table, compared to value betting, sometimes up to 5% per bet.

Yeah but with arbing you can bet big, with value betting you have to stick to strict max amounts to avoid a bad run bankrupting you.  Plus at the moment with Betdaq and Matchbook at 0% commission via oddsmonkey, there is no value loss at the exchanges!!
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2019, 09:13:22 AM »


I will try and put a number on this but it is 100+

Than my question is how did you end up with so many accounts and so little profit ?
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jagas
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Re: 10 Months Value Betting Journey - 32K Profit
« Reply #14 on: August 15, 2019, 09:50:51 AM »

Give me 2416 bets with unrestricted soft books and by arbing I would make 10 times your profit.

If I had unrestricted accounts I would make 100 times more. Value betting is more profitable than arbing....not even close


This i can tell you is a complete Lie, Value betting is never in any way better than arbing.
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