Arbusers

This thread is going to be moderated to a large extent in the coming hours, or come back again with much of the info filtered.

jagas wrote:

Arbermac wrote:

dealer wins wrote: Give me 2416 bets with unrestricted soft books and by arbing I would make 10 times your profit.

If I had unrestricted accounts I would make 100 times more. Value betting is more profitable than arbing....not even close

This i can tell you is a complete Lie, Value betting is never in any way better than arbing.

You are wrong on this, but would be happy to discuss it more

300-500 euro bets you are lucky. Its not true that you last longer with live. Almost all known soft bookies limit within max 2 days except bet365.
Do not worry about antagonism. I am sure no one is jealous. They just want some spotlight and look like know everything. To post is the best choice. Because of conflict you learn new things or things you are doing wrong. This kind of constructive debate we need here.
Arbers say arbing is best. Value bettors say the other. I think arbing is very straightforward. But not sustainable in long terms. Value betting is for experts. They know what to bet, what not and when to. With value if you do it wright you can last with one account all lifetime. And you can make a lot more money than arbing. Betting syndicates bet only value and no arbs. This should tell you something.

Totally agree with Arbermac, todays value betting is more profitable than arbing, and the risks are less. An important point of view which was not discussed is that, if we are arbing and the soft bookie is voiding a bet for example with a stake
of 1000 Pounds..that can cause a lot of loss,which is causing you a lot of time to get those money back. But if you are valuebetting, the stakes are much lower, for example in case of Arbermac the avarage stake is 26 Pounds,and the possibility of placing 38 bets and to lose all of them is much smaller, than placing 38 bets without getting voided at least one of them.

We had to moderate this thread a lot in order to protect the forum and the OP. We also had to moderate the first post of the thread by the OP. We are sorry for this, but couldn't do otherwise.
We are ready to take down all this thread if requested by the OP.

In addition, we are still working on the data sent to us by the OP and we will try to have it up available for everyone in the coming hours.

Many thanks to the OP and all the other members for the exchange of info and ideas.

arbusers wrote: We had to moderate this thread a lot in order to protect the forum and the OP. We also had to moderate the first post of the thread by the OP. We are sorry for this, but couldn't do otherwise.
We are ready to take down all this thread if requested by the OP.

In addition, we are still working on the data sent to us by the OP and we will try to have it up available for everyone in the coming hours.

Many thanks to the OP and all the other members for the exchange of info and ideas.

I think it would just be a better solution to make an official announcement that is strictly forbidden to post anything related to value betting and personal stats on the forum.

That is your opinion, that we don’t agree with.

It's a shame the thread needed to be chopped up so quickly. Some strangely aggressive responses for no reason. Anyway.. I think value betting wins from an expected margin point of view, though arbing can have an edge when it comes to things like variance and staking limits.

Whether value betting or abing, having access to 100s of fresh soft accounts anyone here would make many £1000s.

The real test comes with one ID, limited and having to use just the tiny stakes or sharps only.  £32K would be truly impressive then!

It is impossible to upload to the forum the data sent by Arbermac, due to the size and type of document (excel).
Contact us via Skype, mentioning your profile name and the email used in the forum, and we will send all data through Skype, so you can analyze and work with it.
Many thanks.

I received the stats from arbusers. What an interesting excel sheet!!!
I would like to have some further details about your filtering. How did you select these bets and of course what are the names of the bookmakers that you used?

dealer wins wrote: Whether value betting or abing, having access to 100s of fresh soft accounts anyone here would make many £1000s.

The real test comes with one ID, limited and having to use just the tiny stakes or sharps only.  £32K would be truly impressive then!

Fair comment, I feel that the only real way to do this is to find an edge through data and not just betting on moving odds/wrong odds. This way you can bet at a range of different bookmakers or even on the exchange.

campeones wrote: I received the stats from arbusers. What an interesting excel sheet!!!
I would like to have some further details about your filtering. How did you select these bets and of course what are the names of the bookmakers that you used?

Hi, glad someone has managed to view it and has had a good look. As I am still using the strategy at the moment I obviously cant go into too much detail as it could give away my own edge but I don't mind sharing a bit more info.

Bookies tend to be well established ones that have good presence in the UK. Ladbrokes, Will Hill, Betfred, Bet365, Paddypower, Betfair SP etc. This means that there is rarely any trouble having bets paid out and receiving money once a withdrawal has been made.

My selection process is basically betting on outcomes that are a better price than what I deem the correct price (correct price can be a market average or pinnacle closing line) Some people might say that there is no way of knowing about closing odds but you can also have a good idea where the market is going and of course you will not get 100% right. Its all about the getting a large volume of money on, over a large volume of bets, with an edge and then in the long run you will profit.

For those interested, after 10 months straight profit, 2 weeks into this month I am running at a loss, around 9% down, will be interesting to see how the rest of the month pans out.

As mentioned above I don't want to give to much away but I would be interested in possibly sharing my picks with others as long as people were sharing theirs back with me. I'm already part of a small group which does this and basically you place the value bet yourself first then share with others.

Arbermac can I ask  what kind of value soft you use?

Arbermac wrote: I obviously cant go into too much detail as it could give away my own edge but I don't mind sharing a bit more info.

Totally understand.
I m working for a syndicate on an administrative role and it employs a number of Ph.D. guys that do the maths. I passed all the data to them and they will analyze whatever they can. Obviously, we are having our own edges on what we do and I m not authorized to give them away. So here is a vicious circle, others call it a tragedy, that we can share knowledge for mutual benefit, but the circumstances are not allowing this in fear of losing our own edges.

Arbermac wrote: Bookies tend to be well established ones that have good presence in the UK. Ladbrokes, Will Hill, Betfred, Bet365, Paddypower, Betfair SP etc.

Are these bets placed online or offline? I guess we are talking about online execution. Common knowledge would put Bet365 on top of all activities, would you agree with that?

Arbermac wrote: My selection process is basically betting on outcomes that are a better price than what I deem the correct price (correct price can be a market average or pinnacle closing line) Some people might say that there is no way of knowing about closing odds but you can also have a good idea where the market is going and of course you will not get 100% right. Its all about the getting a large volume of money on, over a large volume of bets, with an edge and then in the long run you will profit.

So we are talking about market reading in the way that arbusers presented it some time ago.

Arbermac wrote: As mentioned above I don't want to give to much away but I would be interested in possibly sharing my picks with others as long as people were sharing theirs back with me. I'm already part of a small group which does this and basically you place the value bet yourself first then share with others.

Some people are not happy with this because they might think that you need a line to be moved by others before you lay your bets.

Thanks for all comments.