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Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?

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heil
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heil

Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?
« on: August 17, 2019, 03:49:38 PM »
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I'm a newbie in value betting. Last month, I tested two different value betting methods. The first one is betting on one side of the arbitrage on soft bookies (skybet, paddypowder and betfair SB). I won about 450 pounds by this method.

Another method is bet on valuebet provided by rebelbetting. I lost 78 pounds after 198 bets. The average stake is 4 pounds, the average odds is 2.52. The p-value of the t-test is 0.16, which means I have 84% confidence to hypothesis that these are not value bets. The t-test method can be found here: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/how-good-are-betting-tipsters/LP923GAHKWH7NV6A

Rebelbetting claims they detect valuebet by comparing odds between soft and sharp. But I can't set which bookmaker is sharp. And I see many valuebets on 10bet, unibet, etc., which in my opinion, are hard to beat. As valuebetting is still in my experimental phase, I took all the valuebets blindly.  But now I lost confidence. Would you please kindly confirm that you can win with rebelbetting and provide some info about the settings?

PS: I have a master's degree in computer science, I'm willing to cooperate if you have strategies.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2019, 03:52:06 PM by heil » Logged
LazyBird
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LazyBird

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?
« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2019, 05:11:54 PM »
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This was my experience with it.

https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=6439.0

I used it daily for a month. From an expected margin perspective it should still be profitable since most of the value bets are just Pinnacle comparisons. Even though relying on pinnacle alone can at times be a mistake. The other things such as not being able to select the value calculation bookmakers and not being able to check the current odds of other books for a value bet were a little off putting since I like to have that kind of customization. In their defense though, I feel like they may want the arb service to be the one to offer these features and the value betting one to be more for beginners or people who want to just see a list of value bets right off the bat and not have to think too much.
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heil
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heil

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?
« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2019, 06:31:20 PM »
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Thanks for your reply. After reading your post, I decide to move to betburge next month. But I will continue my valuebet test on rebelbet.
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LazyBird
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LazyBird

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?
« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2019, 09:10:46 PM »
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Just to clarify. That was my experience with the arbing service. The value betting one is even more limiting for the reasons mentioned above. In my opinion Betburger is the better option.
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RB-Simon
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Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?
« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2020, 08:52:42 AM »
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Sorry for the old topic. You absolutely cannot draw any conclusions after 200 bets!  ;D I don't know your yield, but if you had -1% yield the p-value is 0.45 (t-statistic 0.1139), meaning there is a 45 % probability that you would get these results by random chance alone.

Some updates since this was posted:
Members of ValueBetting have now made over 1 million euro since launch a year ago.
Average ROI per month is about 30%. (Nov 2020 was "only" 19.5%)

See up-to-date statistics from all our users here:
https://www.rebelbetting.com/valuebetting

We now have a 2 week free trial so you can try value betting risk-free.
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arctrading
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arctrading

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?
« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2020, 05:31:41 PM »
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You absolutely cannot draw any conclusions after 200 bets!  ;D

If you hit only one league then of course you can draw conclusions after 200 bets. The more one covers, the more sample size one needs in order to define if he/she has an edge or not. If we talk about narrowed approach then 200 is pretty ok sample size.

Of course this seemed not to be the case with heil as he was probably targeting many leagues/sports and bookmakers. My point is that you cant give out such statement with a smiley behind it as universal truth ;)
« Last Edit: December 11, 2020, 05:39:25 PM by arctrading » Logged
CptShark
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Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?
« Reply #6 on: December 13, 2020, 06:47:12 PM »
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I'm a newbie in value betting. Last month, I tested two different value betting methods. The first one is betting on one side of the arbitrage on soft bookies (skybet, paddypowder and betfair SB). I won about 450 pounds by this method.

Another method is bet on valuebet provided by rebelbetting. I lost 78 pounds after 198 bets. The average stake is 4 pounds, the average odds is 2.52. The p-value of the t-test is 0.16, which means I have 84% confidence to hypothesis that these are not value bets. The t-test method can be found here: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/how-good-are-betting-tipsters/LP923GAHKWH7NV6A

Rebelbetting claims they detect valuebet by comparing odds between soft and sharp. But I can't set which bookmaker is sharp. And I see many valuebets on 10bet, unibet, etc., which in my opinion, are hard to beat. As valuebetting is still in my experimental phase, I took all the valuebets blindly.  But now I lost confidence. Would you please kindly confirm that you can win with rebelbetting and provide some info about the settings?

PS: I have a master's degree in computer science, I'm willing to cooperate if you have strategies.

It does work but I personally do not recommend rebelbetting because it is lacking too many simple features like auto update your account balance. Filter by leagues. Some bookmakers never show up and sometimes they have incorrect odds (but this happens with other alert services as well).

To me, in the end I find rebelbetting a waste of time. You will get alerts all the time but on crappy events like thailand league, venezuela league, spanish 3rd division, spanish women league, honduras league, etc etc... sure you can bet on this matches but don't come back crying that all your accounts are limited in no time.
I barely ever saw a value bet on any top european football league.
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barret19
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barret19

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?
« Reply #7 on: December 13, 2020, 07:08:52 PM »
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Sorry for the old topic. You absolutely cannot draw any conclusions after 200 bets!  ;D I don't know your yield, but if you had -1% yield the p-value is 0.45 (t-statistic 0.1139), meaning there is a 45 % probability that you would get these results by random chance alone.

Some updates since this was posted:
Members of ValueBetting have now made over 1 million euro since launch a year ago.
Average ROI per month is about 30%. (Nov 2020 was "only" 19.5%)

See up-to-date statistics from all our users here:
https://www.rebelbetting.com/valuebetting

We now have a 2 week free trial so you can try value betting risk-free.

30% ROI? Do you even know what are you talking about?
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RB-Simon
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RB-Simon

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?
« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2020, 02:57:35 PM »
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Yes, ROI per month. Let me clarify, since ROI in this scenario can be calculated in several ways. There might also be some terminology confusions. I'm not talking about yield, which is the profit per bet on average (or profit per euro staked). These numbers are below. I'm talking about ROI as used in the financial markets.

ROI is calculated by taking the monthly profit divided by the bankroll at the start of the month (the "investment").
Note that in betting, the bankroll can, and often is, turned over multiple times each month.

We then take the median of the monthly ROI from all members with over 300 placed bets.
The median because it eliminates the effect of outliers (both high and low), and gives a more typical value. If we instead would have taken the average ROI, the number would be much higher - often around 50%! - because of a few extremely profitable members.

We could also take the flat stake ROI, which gives ROI without the effect of staking strategy and bankroll. The numbers are similar, slightly higher actually. But our goal is to show the most real life typical value from our customers.

300 minimum bets was chosen because it indicates an active user, and after 300 the ROI starts to plateau. We could have picked 500 which would have given an even higher ROI of course.

If you rather would like to see the monthly yield:

2020-06-01   2,5%
2020-07-01   5,8%
2020-08-01   2,0%
2020-09-01   3,8%
2020-10-01   3,5%
2020-11-01   2,2%
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arctrading
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arctrading

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?
« Reply #9 on: December 16, 2020, 04:31:12 PM »
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Sorry for the old topic. You absolutely cannot draw any conclusions after 200 bets!  ;D I don't know your yield, but if you had -1% yield the p-value is 0.45 (t-statistic 0.1139), meaning there is a 45 % probability that you would get these results by random chance alone.

Some updates since this was posted:
Members of ValueBetting have now made over 1 million euro since launch a year ago.
Average ROI per month is about 30%. (Nov 2020 was "only" 19.5%)

See up-to-date statistics from all our users here:
https://www.rebelbetting.com/valuebetting

We now have a 2 week free trial so you can try value betting risk-free.

30% ROI? Do you even know what are you talking about?

He means avg 30% BR growth per month. Which is useless in some point because what matters are real numbers. With 1k BR making 30% ROI in financial terms is like 300 eur per month -fees. In valuebetting case, yield is actually more important as it gives objective picture rather than "monetary" one. So in conclusion, their users avg BR could be 5k and then 30% is 1.5k profit. But if you have 100k BR or even 20k BR then good luck getting 1% of that into low league game without facing instant limiting or max limit of 100€.

So if we talk about valuebetting i would just forget about the financial word ROI and focus on Yield instead :) But thats my opinion and it would be probably easyer to sell if we talk about 30% BR growth instead of making an avg of 3% profit per money staked :D
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RB-Simon
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RB-Simon

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?
« Reply #10 on: December 18, 2020, 02:32:12 PM »
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I posted the yield above :)

For people inexperienced with sports betting, ROI per month is much easier to understand as you rightly pointed out.

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