BetBurger | Live and Pre-game surebets
RebelBetting - Turn betting into investing

Does value bet on Rebelbetting really working?

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
heil
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 1
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 22, 2019 5:23 pm

Does value bet on Rebelbetting really working?

Sun Jan 08, 2023 8:49 am

I'm a newbie in value betting. Last month, I tested two different value betting methods. The first one is betting on one side of the arbitrage on soft bookies (skybet, paddypowder and betfair SB). I won about 450 pounds by this method.

Another method is to bet on value bet provided by rebel betting. I lost 78 pounds after 198 bets. The average stake is 4 pounds, the average odds is 2.52. The p-value of the t-test is 0.16, which means I have 84% confidence in the hypothesis that these do not value bets.

Rebelbetting claims they detect value bet by comparing odds between soft and sharp. But I can't set which bookmaker is sharp. And I see many value bets on 10bet, Unibet, etc., which in my opinion, are hard to beat. As value betting is still in my experimental phase, I took all the value bets blindly.  But now I lost confidence. Would you please kindly confirm that you can win with rebel betting and provide some info about the settings?

PS: I have a master's degree in computer science, I'm willing to cooperate if you have strategies.
Last edited by heil on Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
LazyBird
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 6
Posts: 32
Joined: Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:53 pm

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?

Sun Jan 08, 2023 4:11 pm

This was my experience with it.

value-bets-new-functional-from-betburge ... 475#p71475

I used it daily for a month. From an expected margin perspective it should still be profitable since most of the value bets are just Pinnacle comparisons. Even though relying on pinnacle alone can at times be a mistake. The other things such as not being able to select the value calculation bookmakers and not being able to check the current odds of other books for a value bet were a little off putting since I like to have that kind of customization. In their defense though, I feel like they may want the arb service to be the one to offer these features and the value betting one to be more for beginners or people who want to just see a list of value bets right off the bat and not have to think too much.
heil
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 1
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed May 22, 2019 5:23 pm

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?

Mon Jan 09, 2023 5:31 pm

Thanks for your reply. After reading your post, I decide to move to betburge next month. But I will continue my valuebet test on rebelbet.
LazyBird
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 6
Posts: 32
Joined: Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:53 pm

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?

Mon Jan 09, 2023 8:10 pm

Just to clarify. That was my experience with the arbing service. The value betting one is even more limiting for the reasons mentioned above. In my opinion Betburger is the better option.
User avatar
RB-Simon
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Contact:
Karma: 6
Location: Sweden
Posts: 90
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2011 11:18 am

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?

Tue Jan 10, 2023 8:52 am

Sorry for the old topic. You absolutely cannot draw any conclusions after 200 bets!  ;D I don't know your yield, but if you had -1% yield the p-value is 0.45 (t-statistic 0.1139), meaning there is a 45 % probability that you would get these results by random chance alone.

Some updates since this was posted:
Members of ValueBetting have now made over 1 million euro since launch a year ago.
Average ROI per month is about 30%. (Nov 2020 was "only" 19.5%)

See up-to-date statistics from all our users here:
https://www.rebelbetting.com/valuebetting

We now have a 2 week free trial so you can try value betting risk-free.
_________________________
Founder, RebelBetting
arctrading
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 18
Posts: 179
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:57 pm

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?

Tue Jan 10, 2023 5:31 pm

RB-Simon wrote: You absolutely cannot draw any conclusions after 200 bets!  ;D
If you hit only one league then of course you can draw conclusions after 200 bets. The more one covers, the more sample size one needs in order to define if he/she has an edge or not. If we talk about narrowed approach then 200 is pretty ok sample size.

Of course this seemed not to be the case with heil as he was probably targeting many leagues/sports and bookmakers. My point is that you cant give out such statement with a smiley behind it as universal truth ;)
Last edited by arctrading on Fri Dec 11, 2020 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
CptShark
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 2
Posts: 21
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 7:54 pm

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?

Wed Jan 11, 2023 6:47 pm

heil wrote: I'm a newbie in value betting. Last month, I tested two different value betting methods. The first one is betting on one side of the arbitrage on soft bookies (skybet, paddypowder and betfair SB). I won about 450 pounds by this method.

Another method is bet on valuebet provided by rebelbetting. I lost 78 pounds after 198 bets. The average stake is 4 pounds, the average odds is 2.52. The p-value of the t-test is 0.16, which means I have 84% confidence to hypothesis that these are not value bets.

Rebelbetting claims they detect valuebet by comparing odds between soft and sharp. But I can't set which bookmaker is sharp. And I see many valuebets on 10bet, unibet, etc., which in my opinion, are hard to beat. As valuebetting is still in my experimental phase, I took all the valuebets blindly.  But now I lost confidence. Would you please kindly confirm that you can win with rebelbetting and provide some info about the settings?

PS: I have a master's degree in computer science, I'm willing to cooperate if you have strategies.
It does work but I personally do not recommend rebelbetting because it is lacking too many simple features like auto update your account balance. Filter by leagues. Some bookmakers never show up and sometimes they have incorrect odds (but this happens with other alert services as well).

To me, in the end I find rebelbetting a waste of time. You will get alerts all the time but on crappy events like thailand league, venezuela league, spanish 3rd division, spanish women league, honduras league, etc etc... sure you can bet on this matches but don't come back crying that all your accounts are limited in no time.
I barely ever saw a value bet on any top european football league.
barret19
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 14
Posts: 179
Joined: Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:16 pm

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?

Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:08 pm

RB-Simon wrote: Sorry for the old topic. You absolutely cannot draw any conclusions after 200 bets!  ;D I don't know your yield, but if you had -1% yield the p-value is 0.45 (t-statistic 0.1139), meaning there is a 45 % probability that you would get these results by random chance alone.

Some updates since this was posted:
Members of ValueBetting have now made over 1 million euro since launch a year ago.
Average ROI per month is about 30%. (Nov 2020 was "only" 19.5%)

See up-to-date statistics from all our users here:
https://www.rebelbetting.com/valuebetting

We now have a 2 week free trial so you can try value betting risk-free.
30% ROI? Do you even know what are you talking about?
User avatar
RB-Simon
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Contact:
Karma: 6
Location: Sweden
Posts: 90
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2011 11:18 am

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?

Fri Jan 13, 2023 2:57 pm

Yes, ROI per month. Let me clarify, since ROI in this scenario can be calculated in several ways. There might also be some terminology confusions. I'm not talking about yield, which is the profit per bet on average (or profit per euro staked). These numbers are below. I'm talking about ROI as used in the financial markets.

ROI is calculated by taking the monthly profit divided by the bankroll at the start of the month (the "investment").
Note that in betting, the bankroll can, and often is, turned over multiple times each month.

We then take the median of the monthly ROI from all members with over 300 placed bets.
The median because it eliminates the effect of outliers (both high and low), and gives a more typical value. If we instead would have taken the average ROI, the number would be much higher - often around 50%! - because of a few extremely profitable members.

We could also take the flat stake ROI, which gives ROI without the effect of staking strategy and bankroll. The numbers are similar, slightly higher actually. But our goal is to show the most real life typical value from our customers.

300 minimum bets was chosen because it indicates an active user, and after 300 the ROI starts to plateau. We could have picked 500 which would have given an even higher ROI of course.

If you rather would like to see the monthly yield:

2020-06-01 2,5%
2020-07-01 5,8%
2020-08-01 2,0%
2020-09-01 3,8%
2020-10-01 3,5%
2020-11-01 2,2%
_________________________
Founder, RebelBetting
arctrading
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 18
Posts: 179
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:57 pm

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?

Sun Jan 15, 2023 4:31 pm

barret19 wrote:
RB-Simon wrote: Sorry for the old topic. You absolutely cannot draw any conclusions after 200 bets!  ;D I don't know your yield, but if you had -1% yield the p-value is 0.45 (t-statistic 0.1139), meaning there is a 45 % probability that you would get these results by random chance alone.

Some updates since this was posted:
Members of ValueBetting have now made over 1 million euro since launch a year ago.
Average ROI per month is about 30%. (Nov 2020 was "only" 19.5%)

See up-to-date statistics from all our users here:
https://www.rebelbetting.com/valuebetting

We now have a 2 week free trial so you can try value betting risk-free.
30% ROI? Do you even know what are you talking about?
He means avg 30% BR growth per month. Which is useless in some point because what matters are real numbers. With 1k BR making 30% ROI in financial terms is like 300 eur per month -fees. In valuebetting case, yield is actually more important as it gives objective picture rather than "monetary" one. So in conclusion, their users avg BR could be 5k and then 30% is 1.5k profit. But if you have 100k BR or even 20k BR then good luck getting 1% of that into low league game without facing instant limiting or max limit of 100€.

So if we talk about valuebetting i would just forget about the financial word ROI and focus on Yield instead :) But thats my opinion and it would be probably easyer to sell if we talk about 30% BR growth instead of making an avg of 3% profit per money staked :D
User avatar
RB-Simon
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Contact:
Karma: 6
Location: Sweden
Posts: 90
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2011 11:18 am

Re: Does valuebet on Rebelbetting really working?

Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:32 pm

I posted the yield above :)

For people inexperienced with sports betting, ROI per month is much easier to understand as you rightly pointed out.
_________________________
Founder, RebelBetting
Goojybooboo
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 7
Posts: 109
Joined: Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:17 am

Re: Does value bet on Rebelbetting really working?

Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:00 pm

Question remains. Is it really working?
Thank you.
User avatar
RB-Simon
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Contact:
Karma: 6
Location: Sweden
Posts: 90
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2011 11:18 am

Re: Does value bet on Rebelbetting really working?

Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:51 am

Yes it works. Yield has been fantastic last two months, 3.43% yield in February, and March is going strong as well: https://vb.rebelbetting.com/history
Visit our community for members posting their results (both good and bad) to get an idea of what you can expect.
Makis
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 1
Posts: 12
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:35 pm

Re: Does value bet on Rebelbetting really working?

Sat Jan 21, 2023 12:55 pm

heil wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:49 pm
I'm a newbie in value betting. Last month, I tested two different value betting methods. The first one is betting on one side of the arbitrage on soft bookies (skybet, paddypowder and betfair SB). I won about 450 pounds by this method.

Another method is to bet on value bet provided by rebel betting. I lost 78 pounds after 198 bets. The average stake is 4 pounds, the average odds is 2.52. The p-value of the t-test is 0.16, which means I have 84% confidence in the hypothesis that these do not value bets.

Rebelbetting claims they detect value bet by comparing odds between soft and sharp. But I can't set which bookmaker is sharp. And I see many value bets on 10bet, Unibet, etc., which in my opinion, are hard to beat. As value betting is still in my experimental phase, I took all the value bets blindly.  But now I lost confidence. Would you please kindly confirm that you can win with rebel betting and provide some info about the settings?

PS: I have a master's degree in computer science, I'm willing to cooperate if you have strategies.
What about your first option at betting on one side of the arbitrage on soft bookies?? is it working ? is it profitable? have you done it live or prematch?
User avatar
RB-Simon
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Contact:
Karma: 6
Location: Sweden
Posts: 90
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2011 11:18 am

Re: Does value bet on Rebelbetting really working?

Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:02 am

Makis wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 12:55 pm
What about your first option at betting on one side of the arbitrage on soft bookies?? is it working ? is it profitable? have you done it live or prematch?
Betting only on the side with the value is exactly what value betting is.

Our member results can be seen here: https://vb.rebelbetting.com/history
Our median monthly ROI is over 38% for every month during 2022.

Return to “Value betting talk”