Betfair exchange as reference for live odds?

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meisterhaft
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meisterhaft

Betfair exchange as reference for live odds?
« on: September 05, 2019, 08:25:06 PM »

Hello,
so my goal is to write a bot that looks for value in live bets on either bet365 or pinnacle (my plan is to use smartbets.io bot to execute the bets). As far as I know Pinnacle is the standart reference when talking about pre match value betting but I don't know how accurate their line is ingame.

I was thinking about taking the betfair exchange odds as a reference because these are the true market odds and not maybe a bookmaker trying to cut their losses. Another problem I ran into is to calculate the juice on bet365 because it seems to change depending on odds and maybe even sports.

Do you think it could be profitable to use betfair exchange prices as a reference for live value betting ?
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LazyBird
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Re: Betfair exchange as reference for live odds?
« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2019, 09:52:22 PM »

No pricing source is infallible, even the exchange, though it is a close to perfect probability calculation as you will find. No bookmaker will willingly lay bets above the exchange line except in special circumstances, even Pinnacle. It's certainly seen more often in play due to rapid price fluctuations and model calculations, but don't mistake bookmakers poor risk management for willingness to arb the exchange.
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gamblehappier
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gamblehappier

Re: Betfair exchange as reference for live odds?
« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2019, 03:55:22 AM »

No pricing source is infallible, even the exchange, though it is a close to perfect probability calculation as you will find. No bookmaker will willingly lay bets above the exchange line except in special circumstances, even Pinnacle. It's certainly seen more often in play due to rapid price fluctuations and model calculations, but don't mistake bookmakers poor risk management for willingness to arb the exchange.

Do not forget that bet365 is the basebook.Betfair is close to perfect probability,especially to big leagues.Betfair line is not usually correct,in low leagues there are mistakes.
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