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Value betting against Pinnacle on smaller markets

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Gaining experience

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Value betting against Pinnacle on smaller markets
« on: September 11, 2019, 03:50:55 AM »

Hi, I've been value betting with the asian bookmakers and exchanges for over 6 months now. I'm following the "pinnacle lean" strategy and it's working out quite good. With a total amount of 4587 bets i've generated a total ROI of 1.66% on soccer markets. I do know that beating pinnacles closing line is the ultimate goal. But i've found a massive leak in my bets.

Especially on the smaller markets (low tier european soccer leagues) i'm getting absolutely crushed against Pinnacle. These are the leagues where the biggest edges against Pinnacle occur. I have the feeling the bigger the edge against Pinnacle is, the more likely my bet will lose. I know that this sounds ridiculous, but that's what my results show me.
These are also the markets where Pinnacles limits are lower than IBC, Sing or ISNbets.

My question would be: Do you guys think that the other asian bookmakers that offer higher limits on these small markets are sharper than Pinnacle?
If that would be the case, you could actually be value betting with pinnacle against the other asians. On the other hand you wouldn't be able to beat pinnacles closing line on a regular basis.

My view on this could be biased and in the end it might be just variance, however i'll just stick to the bigger markets from now on when following the pinnacle lean strategy.

What are your thoughts/experiences on this? I'd really like to know!
Totally Pro

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Re: Value betting against Pinnacle on smaller markets
« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2019, 12:54:49 PM »

Thank you for posting your experience in our forum. I would appreciate it if you come back on a regular basis informing us about your success. A good graph and some more data would contribute to the general knowledge of our members. Be sure that you will receive wonderful feedback.

Now, reading your post 2 important value betting factors came to my mind.

1st is the correct filtering. If you see some specific markets damaging your profits in the long run, that means something. If you see a specific odds range (i.e 4.00-6.00) provided by a bookmaker damaging your profits that means something as well. This where analysis on excel sheets should take place.

2nd is value traps. I believe this is the case that you described. It is not a surprise that you are losing money in minor markets, because these are the places where value traps are set easier. I mentioned several times, that bookmakers have inside info about certain outcomes and they are willing to offer significantly higer odds than expected for these outcomes. It is common knowledge in betting business that Asia is the junction of information and that is why you see these specific asian bookmakers being generous in the offered limits.

In your shoes, I would go for filtering corrections while continue monitoring the behaviour of these value traps. When you feel more comfortable about interpreting the odds that you see, you could do a bookmaker's job, by taking advantage of these value traps.

I hope these helps, and once again, thank you for posting.
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